Why are the odds against Gio Gonzalez helping the Yankees


Andy Martino, SNY.tv | Twitter |

The Yankees needed to start playing deep, especially after learning last week that they will be without a wound Luis Severino until at least May.

And while we can file the signature of the veteran leftist Gio Gonzalez in the "why not" category, we can also look at recent history and think that Gonzalez is unlikely to be of much help.

The Yankees were close Monday night of a contract with the veteran lefty. According to one person with direct knowledge of the deal, Gonzalez will earn $ 3 million when he reaches the majors.

The team is not quite sure when it will be ready to play championship games, but the April 20 withdrawal from the deal provides a rough indication of when the teams will know they match.

Gonzalez may be ready in a month – he was certainly working and keeping fit while anticipating signing with a team – but that date will come soon. There is a reason why pitchers and receivers are going to spring training about six weeks before the opening day; The pitchers need a lot of time to stretch, get in shape and keep order.

Last year, when it became clear that free trade was changing and that many veterans were suddenly struggling to find work, two brand creators waited until the end of the day. in the late spring to sign.

Lance Lynn accepted the terms of the agreements with the Minnesota Twins on March 10, and Alex Cobb signed with Baltimore on March 20th. Lynn had an MSE of 8.37 in April and has struggled extensively throughout the season. Cobb was 5-15 with an ERA 4.90 for the year.

Admittedly, factors other than delays in selection contributed to these terrible seasons, but the teams took note of the difficulty Lynn and Cobb struggled with and attributed much of the problem to the lack of training at school. spring.

Gonzalez, 33, brings strong signs of decline. While he was 3-0 with an average of 2.13 after Washington traded him to Milwaukee, his peripherals hampered the teams and made his independent agency a non-starter.

A contemporary front office will not neglect a 4.94 xFIP in the second half, or not notice that its brutal contact rate rose 39.2% in September, more than 10% more than its career number.

Other teams who monitored Gonzalez during the winter came back, convinced that his request reflected who he was and not what he was. On Monday, the Yankees managed to lower the price enough to push Gonzalez into the low risk category.

Just do not be surprised if the "high reward" part of this equation does not materialize.

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