Why are your local weather forecasts going to improve: NPR



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A comparison of how old and improved US global weather prediction models predicted the "bomb blast" that hit the northeastern United States in January 2018. The old NOAA model (left ) estimated less snow than what actually occurred (right). The updated model (in the middle) was more accurate.

NOAA / Screen Capture by NPR


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NOAA / Screen Capture by NPR

A comparison of how old and improved US global weather prediction models predicted the "bomb blast" that hit the northeastern United States in January 2018. The old NOAA model (left ) estimated less snow than what actually occurred (right). The updated model (in the middle) was more accurate.

NOAA / Screen Capture by NPR

The US government is strengthening its weather forecasting power.

This week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the upgrade of its main weather forecasting model, called the Global Forecast System.

"Virtually every aspect of weather forecasts – whether it's weather or precipitation – will see a general improvement with this improvement," said Brian Gross, director of the National Meteorological Service's Environmental Modeling Center, during a conference call with reporters.

NOAA scientists say the new system will also perform better in predicting major weather events such as hurricanes, more accurately predicting the route and intensity of a storm.

To make such improvements, NOAA's global forecasting system is equipped with a new engine, or "dynamic core", called finite-volume finite sphere.

And it's been a long time since they've changed engines: "Today's GFS implementation marks the first major upgrade of the GFS dynamic core in nearly 40 years", told reporters Neil Jacobs, acting administrator of NOAA.

The engine is the part of the model that "calculates wind and air pressure for a successful numerical weather prediction," says NOAA.

For years, it has been generally accepted that the US weather forecasting system needs to be upgraded. "Over the years, the National Meteorological Service has lagged behind its European counterparts in the accuracy of its predictions," said meteorologist Jason Samenow at NPR in 2015.

This was particularly evident in the run-up to Hurricane Sandy in 2012. "The European model was the first to accurately predict that Sandy, instead of going to sea, would actually attack the United States," Samenow said. .

After this devastating storm, Congress approved NOAA funding for, as NOAA has said, "significantly improve hurricane forecasts in the United States and develop an unparalleled forecasting system".

NOAA has been using the new engine for three years to compare its predictive power to the model it used.

Improved accuracy is evident in several side-by-side examples provided by NOAA. For example, during the mighty winter storm of January 2018, known as the "bomb hurricane", the model used at the time indicated a much lighter snowfall in the northeastern United States than what really happened. The updated model was more accurate – it showed heavy snowfall.

The side-by-side examples also show that the old model had imprecisely predicted the "extreme strengthening" of Hurricane Florence last year, while the updated model was much more accurate for predict its trajectory and intensity.

The old model will continue to run in parallel until September to compare forecasts.

This new model has experienced deployment delays. As the Washington Post reported, this had been planned for the beginning of the year, but the National Weather Service said the model presented some technical problems. And the partial shutdown of the government has also slowed things down.

The information provided by the new forecast model will be used in local forecasts throughout the United States.

"The weather forecasts you hear are provided by forecasters from the National Meteorological Service, or by people who use the numerical indications provided by our digital models," Gross said. "So we are really looking to improve this basic information that people who predict the weather use daily."

There is also another reason why forecasts should improve. In recent years, NASA has launched new satellites that collect "advanced images and atmospheric measurements of the time it does on Earth".

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