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As the Delta variant of the coronavirus crosses the UK, nearly half of recent COVID-19 deaths in the country are people who have been vaccinated. But doctors and scientists are not sounding the alarm bells at the apparently high proportion of deaths among the vaccinated population.
Rather, they say the numbers so far are reassuring that the vaccines offer substantial protection against the variant, especially after two doses. The delta, first identified in India, has since spread to at least 85 countries, including the United States, where it is now believed to be the most common variant.
The UK is a testing ground for how vaccines cope. Delta is roaming the country – with 146,000 cases identified last week, 72% more than the week before. The country is also a world leader in identifying through testing and genetic sequencing of prevalent versions of the virus: as of mid-June, 97% of cases were Delta infections. And Delta is spreading among a population that is among the most vaccinated in the world: 85% of adults have received at least one injection of the vaccine and 63% have had two.
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Delta’s spread has led the UK government to postpone the end of COVID restrictions for one month until July 19. But ministers are increasingly confident that the unlock will take place as planned as vaccinations have broken the lock between new cases, subsequent hospitalizations and deaths.
Data from Public Health England shows that there have been 117 deaths among 92,000 Delta cases recorded up to June 21. Fifty of them – 46% – had received two injections of the vaccine.
But rather than suggesting that Delta displays a disturbing ability to evade the vaccine and cause serious illness, scientists say these numbers support the effectiveness of the injections. There are three main reasons why.
First, vaccines are not 100% effective. Not all people who are vaccinated will react in the same way. Those who are elderly or whose immune systems are failing, damaged, or stressed by another disease are less likely to develop a robust response than someone younger and fitter. COVID-19 vaccines are very effective, but some people will still be vulnerable to the virus even after receiving their injections.
Second, the risk of dying from COVID-19 increases sharply with age. If a vaccine reduces an 80-year-old’s risk of dying from COVID-19 by 95%, for example, that 80-year-old’s risk of dying could still be greater than the risk for a non-20-year-old. vaccinated. Some chronic diseases like diabetes, hypertension, and lung disease are also associated with a higher risk of serious illness and death.
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Third, as more of the population gets vaccinated, there are fewer unvaccinated people to be infected with the virus. If the pool of vaccinated people is larger than the pool of unvaccinated people, then it is possible and even likely that breakthrough infections leading to death in the older vaccinated group match or exceed deaths in the younger unvaccinated group. . Consider a fantasy land with 100% of people vaccinated, where the virus can still spread somehow. All deaths from COVID-19 are believed to be vaccinated individuals.
Of those 50 deaths among fully vaccinated people in England, all have been in people aged 50 and over, the data shows. No deaths have been recorded among those under 50 who have been doubly vaccinated.
Data shows that, overall, the death rate for confirmed COVID-19 cases has been lower than for the Alpha variant, which was first spotted in the UK at the end of the year last and has since spread around the world. Public Health England has set the fatality rate for Alpha at 1.9%. He estimates the death rate for Delta to be closer to 0.3%, which scientists say reflects both mass vaccination and improved treatment for COVID-19. And the vaccine also reduces the chances of catching the virus.
Click here to read the full article on WSJ.com.
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