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Earlier this week, I was speaking to an NBA executive with primary responsibility for preparing his team for the NBA Draft. He made an interesting claim, saying that there are surely stars to be had in mind in Wednesday night’s draft, but that the real thing to remember – the reason why he thinks we might consider him years from now to really be. remarkable – is abundance of true talent to be had in choices 10 to 40.
Then he said something else that underscores the unique nature of this draft in the most unique of the NBA seasons: that this one, while offering some unique opportunities, may also be the most difficult to assess of the. NBA history.
“AT [the pandemic] to put us in unknown territory and waters for the first time in our history? Absolutely, he said. “There’s always been the pre-draft camp, the medical tests, the interviews, the screening until March. It’s all about collecting information – painting the image of your decision-maker. It’s been very, very difficult.”
We may be in the information age, but this NBA Draft will be defined as one that depends on an information deficit. Several NBA sources – general managers, executives, scouts and other NBA sources – described to CBS Sports a darkness enveloping this most unusual draft.
Last spring, I was speaking with an NBA general manager with a penchant and reputation for having managed to spot future NBA players himself. While each organization has its own workflow and philosophy of how to properly prepare for the draft – and who and what to trust – most successful decision makers prefer to have at least some first-hand time. on the road to assess the potential players.
So I asked this GM, casually, who he spotted, who he saw, who might be an interesting name to watch out for once March Madness and then the pre-draft hit Chicago in the months to come. come.
He looked around sheepishly. “I haven’t been out this year yet,” he told me, “but I’m going soon. I’ll be on the nonstop route soon.”
Soon after, the world stopped. And this NBA general manager – who will be making choices for his organization tonight – has lost his chance to see a single potential NBA player in person before making those decisions.
There are a myriad of additional challenges this year trying to break through the normal fog inherent in evaluating teenagers and young men with an eye on what kind of player, teammate and person they’ll be in one, three. , five years: Less precise medical information. Zoom in on interviews replacing face-to-face meetings. Chicago Combine in mid-May, an event with fewer imports for top picks but value for later picks, dropped. Traditional individual workouts that can lead to surprising information are not a beginner. And all of those games, the ones some NBA makers were planning to use to catch up in March, have simply vanished.
NBA sources have described a league in which many people making the calls tonight would fly largely blind compared to years past.
“At a minimum, there are at least 10 to 11 people in the head of basketball operations who do little or no screening and try to catch up later in the process,” a source said. league. “A third of the top decision makers who call for choices tomorrow are doing so on the basis of film and chance. Maybe their model is to catch up and gather enough information, but this year they haven’t not.”
We’ve seen this information gap play out on a smaller scale in recent years with the game’s international talent pool. Some teams have excellent international scouts. Some don’t. International Boy Scouts from some organizations really command their CEO’s ear here in the United States. Some don’t.
There is also a time lag for decision makers to seek out these players themselves, and this can result in international players like Luka Doncic being undervalued or, conversely, someone like Frank Ntilikina going too early. .
Yes, misfires happen all the time. But all of us, NBA talent assessors included, are more comfortable with what is known firsthand. This degree of uncertainty, greater for some teams than for others, has increased considerably this time around.
Writing is difficult. It’s a kind of alchemy that we like to pretend to be an exact science – part of intuition, part of skill, part of timing, part of luck, part of really, very hard work – before the day of the draft. There are no guarantees, but those who collect the most and the best information tend to do better in the long run.
Boy Scouts like to tell you that the gang doesn’t really tell the story, always. That what a player does in the video matters more if you don’t have the context – how their teammates reacted to their success or failure, the posture and approach to training during the timeouts, l mood of a player on the bench and a myriad of other things and signs that paint the full picture of a future star. Or bust. Things you need to be on hand for.
Each organization and each individual has their approach. Some illuminate more than others. Some rely more on in-person interviews. Some believe that in-person workouts – like the famous showdown between high school student Kobe Bryant and Michael Cooper, in which Jerry West saw a great future – are essential.
Much of that is now gone.
We – fans, scouting experts, boy scouts, general managers, media and NBA columnists – like to pretend we’ve got it all. That we are aware. But an NBA Draft, for everyone, is a game of chance.
Some play poker, in which skill can give you an advantage. Some people play blackjack or roulette, hoping the odds will change in their favor.
This year – much like 2020 – there will be many more teams in that latter position, hoping for a potentially promising project if a nebulous draft turns in their favor as they work with less information than ever before.
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