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CLEVELAND, Ohio – If you were one of the 26 million who watched the NFL comeback on Thursday, you already know how the Browns-Chiefs will end on Sunday.
Whichever offense has the ball last will win. It didn’t matter that Dallas scored a field goal with 1:22 to go. The Cowboys gave Tom Brady and the Buccaneers too much time. Brady has put Tampa Bay in the placement zone in eight games, set up by a 24-yard goal behind wide receiver Chris Godwin.
When two talented teams meet, it is best to have possession last. It’s oversimplifying for a clash with two high-octane offenses, but ultimately I expect Browns-Chiefs II to be tight throughout.
These two teams met last January, the Chiefs winning 22-17. On Sunday, I predict the Browns will avenge their loss and win 28-24. I understand Cleveland is a close touchdown underdog playing a humble Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Andy Reid at Arrowhead Stadium.
But this Browns team is unlike the 2020-21 team that missed out on must-see games last year and played with slow foot speed. General manager Andrew Berry has redesigned his defense, immediately adding sports monsters Jadeveon Clowney, Malik Jackson and Takk McKinley. On the backend, fans will immediately appreciate the safety of John Johnson III.
I expect the fifth-year safety to play over Hill or near the surface against Kelce the entire game.
A bunch of new pass rushers plus spiked safety and I’m only halfway through one of the main reasons the Browns win on Sunday. The element of surprise is on their side. Let’s expand on that in more detail and detail a few more reasons why the Browns will start their Super Bowl season 1-0 full of hope.
The element of surprise
Cleveland Browns safety John Johnson III puts on his helmet while waiting his turn during blanket drills at an organized team event on June 9, 2021, in Berea.John Kuntz, cleveland.com
The Browns have a chance to catch Kansas City off guard. There is no tape on Joe Woods’ new defense. Imagine Kelce was one of the NBA’s top scorers. The defenses understand they can’t stop him, but making his 25-point-per-game nights tough would be the goal by throwing him several long and lanky defenders.
On a soccer field, that’s exactly how the Browns can attack Kelce. Assuming the securities of Grant Delpit and Ronnie Harrison (both listed as questionable), Woods can rotate defenders and constantly disturb the All-Pro tight end. It was a luxury unavailable last January when securities Karl Joseph and Andrew Sendejo each played a bunch.
Throwing elite athletes at Kelce that he hasn’t studied in this system should hamper him. If those safeties aren’t enough, enter rookie Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Another newcomer ready to surprise the Chiefs.
Offensively, the Browns will look like they first met. But Stefanski has the chance to sprinkle surprises at the right times. Cleveland played mostly 11 people (three receivers) and deployed Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Jarvis Landry for the majority of the shots because that was all they had.
On Sunday, Odell Beckham Jr. is expected to return. Rookie Burner Anthony Schwartz delivers the speed Cleveland so desperately missed. Even the rookie receiving running back Demetric Felton could provide a spark.
The defense should play simple but fast, allowing their athletes to compete. Double Hill and Kelce with every snap, forcing the Chiefs’ depth (or lack thereof) to beat them. Berry drafted or added speed on both sides of the ball. It’s time to use it.
Saving perfect games for the end
Nick Chubb tries to get rid of the safety of Chiefs Tyrann Mathieu last January. PA
Tyrann Mathieu dominated Cleveland in January. Pro Football Focus rated him 91, 20 points better than any other Chiefs defenseman. He blew up the tracks by attacking the full-backs and shooting the guards. His third quarter interception beat Baker Mayfield and his mouth never stopped.
He is the lifeblood of the Chiefs’ defense and has yet to be activated from the COVID-19 reserve list. Regardless of his status, the Browns must be prepared to capitalize on late-game opportunities.
Mathieu helped trouble Cleveland early, then Stefanski ran out of treasure hunts late. It cannot happen again. Stefanski called an early screen for tight end David Njoku, an option with Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb and a right-edge quarterback keeper. All the innovative designs that were sold out too soon.
Sunday, at the end of the game, expect Stefanski to have a few in the bedroom. People around the league call it one of the fastest studies they’ve ever come across. This means the Browns will execute their late-game situations and keep scoring until the fourth quarter.
Avoid playing behind the sticks
Rashard Higgins (82) is groping after a big hit on the goal line by Chiefs goalkeeper Daniel Sorensen in January. PA
Many emphasize Rashard Higgins’ fumble via a helmet-to-helmet non-appeal in the end zone is the main reason Cleveland lost. But the Browns had serious offensive issues before almost scoring before half-time. In their first three practices, Cleveland kicked a basket, kicked and fumbled. In addition, Kareem Hunt did not touch in the first half.
The Browns started second and 10 or worse in eight of their first 20 games and twice in their first three games to start the third quarter.
On their two touchdowns after the break, they only faced second and 10 once in 19 games. The reason? No wasted clichés. Nick Chubb had two crucial drops in the second quarter. All Gotta Watch the Tape listeners know he shouldn’t be a focal point of passing games at KC. The chefs figured out the trends preventing a Chubb screen and blew them up.
Finally, full-back Andy Janovich shouldn’t see the pitch. His time will come next week when the Browns exploit a second-half lead over Houston. But his 38 PFF overall rating and poor strip suggest that the Chiefs are enjoying his presence. It indicates where the races are going and is not a threat in the passing game.
What we have learned
Have I been too optimistic? Am I neglecting the fact that Mahomes has a 32-0 touchdown / interception ratio in September? How about his 10 career wins in September against just nine sacks. Boy Wonder (not sure if others call him that but we should) averaged 330 passing yards per game in September and a QBR of 90.
(Check the calendar. … Ouch.)
Compare that to the Browns’ winless opening streak and things quickly get dark. But this game must be viewed in a vacuum. Browns are healthy. The element of surprise is at their disposal and Stefanski has never lost consecutive games.
As a result, the Browns win a game that rivals Thursday night’s classic. Enjoy.
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