Why was the Saudi oil minister fired from his post? | Count the cost



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He was the de facto leader of OPEC and the most respected oil tanker in Saudi Arabia and on the world stage. So respected that when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman needed to preserve his credibility after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, energy minister Khalid al-Falih turned to him.

But, surprise, he was ousted and replaced by Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, half-brother of MBS.

This is the first time that a Saudi family member in power has been appointed to this post. Technocrats like al-Falih have always been the choice of the nation to lead the oil ministry.

Al-Falih has also been relieved of his duties as chairman of the national oil giant Aramco.

Saudi Arabia holds 13% of the world oil market. During Al-Falih's tenure, he struggled to raise the price of oil to $ 80.

This award would give Mohammed bin Salman the financial strength to transform the economy away from dependence on oil. It would also allow him to balance his budget and not exhaust the foreign exchange reserves on imports.

Oil is crucial for Saudi Arabia. It accounts for 40% of its economy, 70% of public revenue and nearly 80% of export earnings.

According to Reuters, Saudi Arabian revenues from oil exports rose from more than $ 800 million a day in April 2014 to less than $ 300 million a day in February 2016, as a result of the shale oil boom in the United States. United States. In June of this year, he earned $ 400 million a day.

Saudi Arabia has done everything in its toolbox to raise prices. Al-Falih has sought the help of Russia and other non-OPEC countries to reduce its production. Saudi Arabia has brought its own production to its lowest level in five years – to no avail.

It also needs high oil prices to meet the ambitious $ 2,000 billion IPO valuation of Saudi Aramco early next year.

For now, analysts estimate that the world's most profitable company is worth between $ 1 trillion and $ 1.5 trillion. But MBS wants a higher valuation and as such, al-Falih has also failed.

"Saudi Arabia has ambitious investment plans, the 2030 Vision and other areas, so I certainly think of the slow progress, as the Saudis would probably think, in achieving a more balanced market. the price increase they would expect, to be an important part of what led to this change, "says Richard Mallinson, principal analyst and co-founder of Energy Aspects, at Counting the Cost.

According to Mallinson, Prince Abdulaziz is "very deeply involved in the (oil) industry" and is perceived "as a safe pair of hands and an experienced person in the oil markets".

"So, I think that the fact that he's a prince and the fact that he's the half-brother of the crown prince is not the relevant factor, it's much more than just a man." He knows the wallet and that he is perceived as not wanting to make any waves in politics, "said Mallison.

"I do not think we would see a radically different policy, I think we might see a different communication style perhaps, maybe a return to an approach we had seen in the past in Saudi Arabia where there was fewer discussions, fewer comments. " in the press. The message that the kingdom wanted to communicate to the oil markets was less important. "

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