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Chicago, USA – October 21: Bryn Forbes (11 years old) San Antonio Spurs in action at NBA preparatory game between Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs at United Center (Photo by Bilgin S. Sasmaz / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images)
The San Antonio Spurs will rely on outside shots from players like Bryn Forbes to extend the pitch, but does shooting over three to three necessarily equate to playoff success?
We are in 1999 and the San Antonio Spurs have just won their first of five NBA championships for Alamo City. They secured a top spot in the group as they shot an average of 10.4 shots per game in the regular season, which is good for only 25th in the NBA. Twenty years later, two individual players – James Harden and Stephen Curry – scored on average more than three-point attempts than the entire original championship team, with 13.3 and 11.7 attempts per game, respectively.
The management of the NBA has evolved considerably over the years and the most significant change during this period was probably the use of outdoor shooting. What began as a specialized skill has now become a main weapon among guards and centers.
Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich has expressed his negative opinion that the league relies on the well-known three-point shot on several occasions. The evidence corroborates it: since 1999, the Spurs have never finished higher than seventh in the league in three attempts tempted by season. In fact, for four seasons, San Antonio has not gone past the 25th rank in the league and was last in 2018-19.
The fact that silver and black won five titles without ever being among the top five in three attempts proves that Popovich is more than capable of leading them to the title in his favorite way; However, these titles have all come with the luxury of several Hall of Famers on the list.
The question then arises: With their current alignment, can San Antonio continue to systematically reach the playoffs and potentially go further despite their reluctance to draw often from outside? To determine if pulling more than three is critical to success, let's look at some recent cases:
The Toronto Raptors proved last year that with enough star power and effective support, you did not necessarily need an abundance of Hall of Fame members or a great deal of trust in the Hall of Fame. the three-pointer to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Toronto had 33.8 shots per game last season, putting them just 11th in the championship. In the previous year, the future Golden State Warriors champions had finished 16th in the same statistic, averaging 28.7 attempts per game.
At the other end of the spectrum, let's take a look at a team that has been producing its main three-point weapon for the past three years: the Houston Rockets. While Gregg Popovich is the biggest opponent in outside shooting, Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni is the biggest fan.
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During his 15-year coaching career, D'Antonio-led teams finished first or second by scoring three points in three attempts in the regular season, including seven in first place. Houston has certainly embraced his coach's dedication to longball, having finished top of the league in this category in the last three seasons, recording an impressive 45.4 attempts against San Antonio's 25.3. last season. However, to date, D'Antoni has not been able to qualify for the NBA Finals in his coaching career.
Although each situation and each team is different, it is difficult to look at data such as this one and to think that getting more points at 3 points is absolutely necessary to succeed. In the same vein, a lack of depth attempts does not prevent a team from having success throughout the regular season and playoffs.
For the Spurs, the success of Gregg Popovich's team for more than 20 years is based on a good balance between effective shot in three points, although it is infrequent, and a solid defense. San Antonio must do both things well to try to beat 23 playoff records.
If the world has already learned something, it's because Popovich is not a big proponent of change. With the return of Dejounte Murray, the second-ranked NBA selection in the second team, the addition of DeMarre Carroll, the quick improvement of Derrick White and the selection of 15 teams from the team fully on defense in Tim Duncan, he may have more to change for the moment.
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