Will the studios blink? – The Hollywood journalist

Hopes were relatively high on studio grounds in Hollywood in June. A true box office revival seemed in sight. Executives could be confident in their fall versions after having to rearrange their entire schedule at the start of the pandemic in the spring of 2020 and then again during the surge of COVID-19 cases last winter. But the feeling of calm was not to last.

The aggressive delta variant has triggered a spike in COVID-19 cases in Los Angeles, some southern states and now nationwide. According to surveys conducted by the National Research Group, comfort levels for movies have plummeted within weeks, delaying the recovery indefinitely. General comfort had reached a record 81% during the pandemic period in early July before starting to decline significantly day after day. As of August 16, the comfort level stood at a worrying level of 64%.

The response was swift as the studios started flashing (again). Paramount announced at the end of July that it was taking the family film Clifford the big red dog out of the September calendar. Moms, followed by dads, are particularly nervous about taking their children to the multiplex because those under 12 are not eligible to be vaccinated, according to polls. And all the older women and men, who are a popular demo for the fall rewards fare, are anxious.

Sony was next, moving the sequel Venom: let there be carnage, starring Tom Hardy, from September 24 to October 15, then, on August 16, selling Hotel Transylvania 4: Transformania, which was set to hit theaters on October 1, at Amazon in a one-off deal worth over $ 100 million. Regarding Venom, there is buzz that he could move again. Either way, Sony has made sure it has a bit of a break.

Now the often asked question comes up: How many other tentpole films are going to move? Could the roster include MGM and EON’s James Bond installment? No time to die? (It is expected to start opening overseas in late September before landing in the United States on October 8.) The film is on the long list of 2020 event photos that have been delayed multiple times, a scenario nightmarish. Sources say No time to die may not be able to grow at this point yet, as each reboot costs millions of dollars in marketing. MGM also doesn’t have a sister streaming service – at least not yet, pending regulatory approval of a deal to be acquired by Amazon.

Said a studio director: “If I had known six weeks ago what I know now, I would have moved everything early next year. A rival colleague adds that he would have said “no” to the possibility of another major calendar migration just six weeks ago. “Now that’s a maybe.”

Other big titles this fall include Sony Ghostbusters: the afterlife and Paramount actor Tom Cruise Top Gun: Maverick in November.

The impact of lower comfort levels in July and August was almost immediate in terms of falling box office receipts, which had never reached pre-pandemic levels. In other words, the casual moviegoer has yet to make a permanent comeback to the multiplex.

“In the traditional days, once a release date is ‘locked in’ then everything else goes offline, and studios would therefore only move a film in the most dire or unimaginable scenarios, lest the prospects of a solid theatrical release won’t derail, ”says box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore.

Disney and marvel Black Widow debuted at $ 80.4 million nationally over the weekend of July 9-11, a record high in the era of the pandemic. Another photo of the Disney event Jungle cruise opened at $ 35 million at the end of last month, followed a week later in early August by The suicide squad with just $ 26.2 million.

All three films were immediately made available at home, a controversial release model used by Disney and, to a greater extent, by Warner Bros. due to the pandemic and as the two studios try to help grow their sister streaming services. Black Widow and Jungle cruise could be viewed day and date in theaters on Disney + Premier Access for an additional $ 30. All of Warners’ 2021 roster launches simultaneously on HBO Max, including The suicide squad, Without supplements. (Warners’ titles fell more sharply than Disney’s, with Suicide Squad 72% drop in its second weekend, the worst drop in recent memory for a DC superhero title.)

The two companies have entered into hundreds of talent deals in an attempt to appease talent that would normally receive a portion of the box office backend. Jason Kilar, director of WarnerMedia, has publicly acknowledged that the conglomerate – which AT&T hopes to sell to Discovery – paid at least $ 200 million to stars and filmmakers whose films went to HBO Max.

Walt Disney Co. CEO Bob Chapek also weighed in on the topic of hybrid versions during an August 12 earnings call. He said “hundreds of deals” have been made. In a recent lawsuit, however, Black Widow Actress Scarlett Johansson alleged that Disney broke its contract by sending the superhero photo to Disney + Premier Access and failed to respond adequately to attempts at negotiation.

Warners says it intends to end the day-and-date versions in 2022 and will stick to an exclusive 45-day window instead.

Disney is committed to providing both free guy, which opened in mid-August, and Marvel’s Shang-Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, a 45-day exclusive theatrical release, though during an August 12 earnings call CEO Bob Chapek hinted that the Delta variant is obscuring the landscape for fall releases such as Marvel’s Eternals. (He didn’t mention Eternals by name.) “We said from the start that we appreciate the flexibility of being able to make as many last-minute calls as possible, given what we’re seeing in the market,” Chapek said. “Nothing is set in stone.”

Much better than expected nationwide opening of $ 28.4 million free guy the weekend of August 13th to 15th gave a huge boost to stressed executives. Many analysts note that an exclusive release to the big screen has helped. Men Under 35 – A Demo Widely Discouraged By Delta – Fueled free guy, which means movies drawing on this group could still work. (This is good news for Venom: let there be carnage, for example.)

“We’re at a point in this long payback where I think the studios are less interested in big changes in the release schedule and more focused on short-term adaptations to the market,” said Shawn Robbins of Boxoffice Pro. .

“Not only is free guy Representative of the kind of high quality films that people are in the mood and keen to see in theaters right now, it again shows the demand for this theatrical experience and how important exclusive windows are to the capacity of the theater. ‘industry to produce a true blockbuster movie with a life cycle that doesn’t burn out and die young, ”Robbins continued. “Nothing is guaranteed in the world we live in now, and distribution strategies will likely be evolving for a little while, but free guyThe performance so far offers reason to be cautious in several of the tent trips slated for this fall, which are geared towards similar demographics.

Overseas remains a hindrance for a studio dependent on harvesting most of its foreign box office money, however, especially with China currently banned from Hollywood titles. Beijing’s film regulators’ usual blackout on foreign film releases during the peak summer period has been stricter and longer than usual in deference to this politically high-profile 100th anniversary of the Party’s founding. Chinese Communist.

Delta is also causing trouble in the Middle Kingdom. Beijing’s aggressive “zero COVID” policy means large swathes of the country’s service sector, including movie theaters, are at risk of shutting down altogether as soon as a nearby local infection is discovered. “The impact of the ongoing pandemic cannot be underestimated,” said Rance Pow, president of Artisan Gateway, who notes that nearly 3,500 theaters have recently been closed in China as a precautionary measure related to the propagation of the delta variant.

Many other countries are also affected. France and Italy now require vaccine passports to attend indoor public spaces, including theaters, which has drastically reduced attendance. Some large Australian states are on lockdown, while Japan, Korea and Mexico all report record-breaking cases of COVID-19. And in the international market, there are capacity restrictions. One of the main cinema financiers adds: “It is in everyone’s interest to move great films, especially given the international position. “

Patrick Brzeski contributed to this report.

A version of this story first appeared in the August 18 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.