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Tens of millions of people are expected to head to family reunions or winter holidays over Christmas, despite calls from public health experts who fear the result may be a further rise in COVID-19 cases.
In the United States, the AAA predicts that about 85 million people will travel between December 23 and January 3, most by car. If true, it would be a drop of almost a third from a year ago, but still a massive movement of people in the midst of a pandemic.
Jordan Ford, 24, fired as a guest relations officer at Disneyland in March, said he plans to visit his and his boyfriend’s family in Virginia and Arkansas over Christmas.
“It’s pretty safe – everyone is wearing a mask, they clean the cabin thoroughly,” said Ford, who has traveled almost every week for the past few months from his home in Anaheim, Calif., And is frequently tested. “Once you have completed this first trip since the start of the pandemic, I think you will feel comfortable no matter what.”
Experts fear Christmas and New Years will turn into super-spreader events because many people are letting their guard down – either through pandemic fatigue or the encouraging news that vaccines are starting to flow.
“When the pandemic started, people weren’t traveling because they didn’t know what was going to happen,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California at San Francisco, “but there is a feeling now that: ‘If I understand it, it will be mild, it’s like a cold.’ “
The seven-day moving average of newly reported infections in the United States rose from around 176,000 per day just before Thanksgiving to over 215,000 per day. It is too early to calculate how much of this increase is due to travel and gatherings over Thanksgiving, but experts believe they are a factor.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say “Postponing travel and staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others from COVID-19.” People who insist on travel should consider getting tested for the virus before and after their trip and limiting non-essential activities for seven days after travel with a negative test result and 10 days if they are not tested.
Other countries have imposed restrictions before the holidays. Last month England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland agreed to allow up to three households to mix between December 23 and December 27, regardless of local restrictions in force.
German automobile association ADAC says holiday traffic will be drastically reduced. The reasons include not only caution and urging the government to avoid personal contact, but also the simple fact that many traditional destinations, from the country’s charming Christmas markets to downhill ski resorts, have been closed.
Christmas markets, which normally draw large crowds to city centers for steaming cups of mulled wine, have been canceled; a lockdown imposed on Dec. 9 shut down the non-essential retail business.
Meanwhile, the usual pilgrimage via the highway to the ski slopes, which usually begins on December 26, will be largely absent as France, Germany and Italy have ordered ski resorts to close. The borders are open but with important limits such as quarantine requirements.
In Latin America, a few countries have placed restrictions to prevent people from traveling or meeting while on vacation, but others have advised people to only practice social distancing and skip parties.
Panama has some of the more stringent measures, including a curfew until January 4 and a ban on leaving the home from December 25-28 and January 1-4, except for essential activities such as buying food or medicine. Peru, one of the hardest-hit countries in the region, has banned the use of private cars on Christmas Eve and New Years and New Years in hopes of discouraging people to travel.
In the United States, Rachel Watterson has delayed her New Year’s wedding because her fiance’s family cannot travel to the United States from their home in Germany. Instead, the couple plans to run away and will fly away from their Chicago home in Hawaii with their parents, brother, and a friend. They chose Hawaii because of the requirements which include pre-arrival coronavirus testing and a quick test at the airport.
“We felt this was one of the very few safe choices we can make if we’re going to travel,” Watterson said.
Tim Brooks, a 37-year-old engineer in Long Beach, Calif., Canceled a trip to Grand Cayman due to a ban on international visitors, then canceled a Christmas visit to his parents in North Carolina as the infections were increasing in California and the country.
“If it was just us it wouldn’t be so bad, but we have older parents and we’re trying to keep them safe,” Brooks said.
Airports and airplanes will be much less congested this year in what is normally a peak travel season. So far in December, air travel in the United States is down 67% from last year. If Thanksgiving is any indication, the number of travelers will increase for the rest of the month, but airlines warn that bookings have slowed since the last increase in COVID-19 cases.
The nation’s four major airlines now have December and January schedules that are 33% to 46% smaller than a year earlier, according to figures from Airline Data Inc.
The average flight in the United States was only 49% full last week, up from more than 80% a year ago, according to the Airlines for America business group.
The near-term outlook remains bleak for other travel-related businesses, including those that rely on winter tourism.
In the Vermont ski area, the Trapp Family Lodge in Stowe is usually full during Christmas week, but only half of the 96 rooms were booked last week. It was a similar story at the neighboring Lodge at Spruce Peak. Operators of both lodges have blamed travel restrictions, especially quarantine requirements that are triggered by crossing national borders.
“It’s frustrating as a business to be fundamentally prohibited from doing its job and not being able to support its employees or community,” said Sam von Trapp, executive vice president of the family lodge. “At the same time, we understand that there is a very good intention behind all of these restrictions.”
Cruise ships often command their highest prices on Christmas and other holidays when the kids are not in school, but few ships are sailing this season. Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian and Disney have all canceled U.S. cruises until February 28. Travel to other parts of the world has been delayed for the most part.
Florida, which relies heavily on winter tourism, is also taking a big hit. The two-week period around Christmas is normally the busiest time of year for Walt Disney World in Orlando, says Len Testa, president of TouringPlans.com, which forecasts attendance at the park. But this year, the Magic Kingdom capped park attendance at 35%, so Testa only expects around 32,000 people on these days.
Testa also expects crowd levels to be lower than usual from January through March, with many visitors postponing their trips to May or later.
“Many families will delay their spring break trips until they are vaccinated,” he said.
Tara Kelley had planned to drive seven hours from her home in Milligan, Fla., To Orange City, Fla., To visit her mom and stepfather for Christmas. But Kelley’s wife recently had surgery and spent a day in a hospital where there was a risk of exposure to the coronavirus, so they canceled the trip.
“We had literally been planning this since February,” Kelley said. “It’s a big blow.”
Theresa Medina, a 55-year-old retiree from south Boston, is still deciding whether she and her husband will visit her mother in the Dominican Republic this winter. She is 80% sure they will and she is already preparing a box to ship before they arrive. But the couple plan to discuss it with her husband’s doctor in January.
If they leave, Medina said they would undergo coronavirus tests and wear protective gear, including face shields and masks.
“We may look silly on the plane, but precautions are precautions,” she said.
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Lisa Rathke in Montpelier, Vermont, Wilson Ring in Stowe, Vermont and David McHugh in Frankfurt, Germany contributed to this report.
David Koenig can be reached at www.twitter.com/airlinewriter
Dee-Ann Durbin can be contacted at www.twitter.com/deeanndurbin_ap
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