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The Big Ten Conference’s college football slate crown jewel was slated for Halloween: Ohio State vs. Penn State. From a marketing standpoint, it would be hard to outshine a prime-time game at Happy Valley. After all, it was a reunion that in recent years has set records for audiences and attendance, decisive division and college football playoff trips.
Instead, the Buckeyes took a 14-point lead in under 10 minutes and passed the still winless Nittany Lions in an empty Beaver Stadium.
The must-see incline of the Big Ten calendar comes this weekend, when No.3 Ohio State hosts No.9 Indiana. Take a break for not favorite this game when the schedule was released.
Indiana hasn’t entered a season in the AP’s Top 25 in over 50 years, because right after their last conference victory in 1967, and before that year, no coach in more than 70 years has had a school winning record.1 Last season was the program’s best in two decades: the Hoosiers went 8-5 and lost in the Gator Bowl. Arguably, the program’s fame as it entered 2020 was that it was considered the least boring team in the Big Ten by Spencer Hall.
Even Indiana coach Tom Allen understands how surprising his team’s success has been across most of the country. “I understand basketball is a big deal in this state,” he told ESPN.
If success is cyclical, he has chosen to bypass the people of Bloomington altogether. That is, until now.
It seems like every week has been historic for the undefeated Hoosiers. Indiana entered the season opener against Penn State with a pitiful 1-22 all-time series record, to win in an overtime thriller. In the following weeks, he broke a 24-game losing streak against the Michigan Wolverines and earned his first victory at East Lansing in 19 years. His victory over Michigan State came in a shutout, the first time the Spartans have been shutout at home since 1985. And now a program with 19th century roots is days away from its very first. regular season showdown among the top 10.
So how did Indiana get here?
The Hoosiers have been successful mainly thanks to a ravenous defense that ranks fourth in efficiency in four games, already having scored more points on turnovers than in five of the past 14 seasons.
Behind a high pressure defense, Indiana sets the tone for the Big Ten’s defensive units. The Hoosiers have the highest intercept rate in the country and the highest bag rate in the conference. The opposing quarterbacks produced a QBR of 26.8 against Indiana, the nation’s 10th best defensive mark. Last weekend, Payton Thorne and Rocky Lombardi combined to produce an adjusted QBR of 4.02 vs. Indiana, which is the state of Michigan’s worst single-game performance for which data is available.
A prolific defense is a must when Justin Fields waits backstage. With Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence sidelined after a positive COVID-19 test, Fields is now one of the few with a strong chance of winning the Heisman Trophy. In three games, Fields gutted defenses, posting a nation-leading QBR of 96.4, a cartoon-style adjusted completion percentage of 92.6 and a whopping zero interceptions.
Fields’ counterpart on the field will be Michael Penix Jr., who has a top-50 QBR (69.7), go-go-gadget arms and a David vs. Goliath mindset. “I feel like we’re going to shock the world,” he said in september.
With a promising quarterback and aggressive defense, Indiana lines up their best team in a long time by just about every measure of efficiency.
There is a constant cadence in college football of familiar names pounding familiar punch bags. Indiana may have gone from victim to winner in a matter of months, but that doesn’t mean the Hoosiers have earned the respect of betting markets: Ohio state has opened in some areas as a favorite of 20.5 points in one of the college football games of the week. . But if Indiana could grab a win this weekend in the Horseshoe, she would take the indoor playoff track back. It’s a twist that no one saw coming.
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