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Welcome to the fourth article on the WR / CB games of the 2021 NFL season. My goal last year was to create the first completely free article on WR / CB matches to share with the fantasy football community. I appreciate all the support and feedback I have received. If you enjoy my work, please follow me on Twitter @ draft32teams. My process includes a thorough study of college draft prospects, so I spotted the majority of NFL CBs before they even set foot on NFL land. I love fantasy football, but my real passion is recruiting players for the NFL Draft.
Compiling this data and writing this article every week has clearly shown that While matchups matter, a receiver’s skill and target share is more important than opposition in many cases. This point is extremely important to understand. The PPGA (points per match allowed) numbers correspond much more to the skill level of the WR that each CB has faced rather than the skill level of the CB itself. For example, in week 1 Tyreek Hill had a boom match and played mostly on RWR. Denzel Ward is still one of the best covering corners in the league, but he’s been awarded those points. On the other hand, bad corners can have low PPGA because they faced a WR group or attack that just isn’t that good or doesn’t target that position much. It’s a reminder that we are dealing with small samples and inaccurate science.
I decided to change the name of the article from “Matchups to Target and Avoid” to “Matchups to Target and Downgrade”. Too many times a WR has a tough game and produces anyway. A tough game is no guarantee that a WR will disappoint. On the other hand, an easy game doesn’t always mean a huge game. There are a myriad of reasons why a player can fail in an easy game and excel in a difficult game. The graph is best used to understand the context of matches in general, and not to predict outcomes.
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Graph Details
The CB correspondence table below is an overview of each team’s cornerback group with regard to the awarding of Fantasy Points. There are inherent flaws in compiling corner clearance data. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1v1 game in an NFL game is unfair because of zone covers, mental errors, some passing concepts and a million other things. Assigning fancy points to a cornerback is not a perfect science. The purpose of this table is to give a more general idea of how the defenses deal with opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when and how each encounter occurred. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up most of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side for each snap, so they will not be associated with the same CB for each snap.
The “Rtng” column is the score of each cornerback based on study and film analysis. The higher a player is rated, the easier the match is for WR, so low scores are green and high scores are red. The “PPGA” is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means that the corner could possibly overshadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is suffering from an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green are easy to match. The WRs highlighted in light red are having a tough game. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a starting / sitting cheat sheet.
Cornerback Notes and Matches – Week 4
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WR / CB matches to target
We start with Thursday Night Football when the Bengals high school takes it out on Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. Trae Waynes will likely be back for Cincy, but Chidobe Awuzie is assaulted and Eli Apple has been awful. Both exterior WRs for the Jags get an upgrade. I project Marvin Jones Jr. to see more of Apple based on past alignment trends. Pray for fewer injuries than last week.
On the other side of this game, secondary CJ Henderson without Jags represents an easy clash for Joe Burrow’s guns. Shaquil Griffin now plays at RCB and has been a better player in the past than he has shown so far this year. The Jags were also burned more by RWRs and slots than by the LWR position, so I’m not improving Ja’Marr Chase much. If Tee Higgins is playing, he sees a bump. Tyler Boyd is also well placed. As a reminder, the vast majority of NFL teams are moving their WRs around roster, so it’s very possible that Chase is playing RWRs this week.
UPDATE: Higgins has been officially kicked out.
DeVonta Smith has been underwhelming over the past two weeks, but Kansas City has been terrible against opposing LWRs so far this year. Smith is moving into the lineup, but he has a great opportunity this week to feast on guys like Mike Hughes.
Tre Flowers is one of the worst starting CBs in the NFL and just gave up a dominant day to Justin Jefferson. Brandon Aiyuk appears to have stepped out of Kyle Shanahan’s kennel, so a big week is a possibility.
On the other side of this game, the 49ers outside the CB are under attack, which is a big blow for DK Metcalf. Tyler Lockett has played more outside, so it is not excluded that he also jumps.
Mac Jones and the Patriots haven’t had the best matchups for passing production so far, but this week get a Bucs D pass that has been suspect at best in 2021. The only thing holding back receivers the Pats against a pass funnel defense is volume and their rookie QB. I expect at least one of the Nelson Agholor or Jakobi Meyers to have a big game when Brady returns to Foxborough.
Washington’s defense has been horrible to start the year, so look for Calvin Ridley to have his best game of the season in Week 4.
When it comes to good slots matches for super deep options, Amon-Ra St. Brown gets the burnable Duke Shelley, while Braxton Berrios (or Jamison Crowder) gets the slow Elijah Molden. Meanwhile, Zach Pascal will face a nickel duo from Miami that was just roasted by Hunter Renfrow, and the Panthers’ starting receiving line will face Jourdan Lewis, which has been an easy game his entire career. The Panthers are moving their WRs a lot, so DJ Moore or even Milk Carton Robby Anderson could be some benefactors this week. However, Terrace Marshall Jr. plays the most slots, which is why it is there.
WR / CB matchups to downgrade
The Browns defense comes off a dominant performance against the Bears and has been formidable in limiting LWRs all year. You’re not sitting Justin Jefferson, but he’s getting a downgrade this week. I keep a close eye on Greg Newsome as a beginner.
Speaking of young breakout players, Trevon Diggs once again performed fantastically last week. DJ Moore is awesome and could very well make a bunch of games against Diggs. It’s just not an easy place.
Marquise Brown is pulling off an incredibly underwhelming performance against the Lions, and things will be a lot tougher against the formidable Broncos defense this week. Patrick Surtain II is right next to Greg Newsome in the DROY race for three weeks.
Xavier Rhodes is back for the Colts, and I think their high school will improve as the season goes on. DeVante Parker is not well placed this week.
Bryan Edwards has flashed for the Raiders 3-0 at times, but the three Las Vegas WRs have some tough clashes against the Chargers’ formidable secondary. Edwards, Henry Ruggs III, and Hunter Renfrow all get downgrades, but they’re very unlikely to disappoint all three in a game with a total of 52.5 points.
Brandin Cooks has been great so far, but this week will be his toughest clash against a D pass from Buffalo who has been excellent in limiting opposing WR production.
CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper haven’t done much against a tough Eagles high school, and things don’t get much easier against the Panthers. The two still have the potential to come out, but the game is tough.
Speaking of the Eagles high school, this week they face Tyreek Hill and the Chiefs. You’re obviously not sitting at Hill, but if he comes out I would expect it to be from the slots as Steven Nelson and Darius Slay have both been above average so far. .
The Steelers offense has been a mess with a decrepit Ben Roethlisberger at the helm, and an outside WR will have to face Jaire Alexander at all times. Depending on the status of their starters, it could be Chase Claypool, who will have to overcome this clash with his size.
AJ Green just played in a 100-yard game, but this week will face a Rams high school who has been stingy against the RWRs since Darious Williams took over at the LCB last season.
Parris Campbell is probably not launched in any league and has to face Xavien Howard, while the Bucs WR2 spot (Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller or Tyler Johnson) gets a downgrade against JC Jackson.
The Texans don’t have much going for them as a franchise, but Desmond King has always been a tough slot corner. The Bills should be able to do whatever they want against Houston, but the best matches are away, which means Cole Beasley is demoted.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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