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Luis Castillo came. Luis Castillo has disappeared. A rumor circulated on the internet on Sunday that the Reds ace was about to be traded to the Yankees.
Reds general manager Nick Krall, in texts addressed to the team’s beatwriters, extinguished this by calling it “completely wrong.” A Yankee official called the report “BS”.
So let’s cross Castillo – for now. Car Krall also told reporters: “We intend to have him as a member of our rotation for 2021.” “Intent” is an interesting word that offers leeway.
But Cincinnati is in a watered-down NL Central, just made the playoffs for the first time since 2013, and knows how horribly she would play with her fanbase to trade in her most talented prime-age star.
Yet teams – especially those in smaller markets – should always ask themselves what their best assets are: 1. Can we compete for a title in that player’s control period? 2. Will this asset end its control period here or will it eventually be traded? 3. Will the asset’s business value ever be higher than it is now: if done right, a return of $ 1.25 can be achieved for $ 1 of talent? If you answer no, no, and no, why shouldn’t the reader be available?
Which brings us to the Yankees, who I believe should be willing to pay $ 1.25 in exchange for the right $ 1 starter. It’s not the Yankee way anymore. They believe that discipline, logic and accumulating good decisions will be rewarded with a sustained window of competition. I got it.
Except logic has to die with how these Yankees are winning now. They can no longer point to the Dodgers’ other superpowers and say they haven’t won since 1988. They can no longer expect the Mets to be their sweet neighbor in Queens. Hi, Steve Cohen. They can’t expect Gerrit Cole to maintain this level of performance for too many years to come. Once you’ve paid for Cole, you’re ready to earn it. NOW.
The Yanks, however, could look at their division and assess anyone who wasn’t yet taking the money from the Blue Jays, the Red Sox still in rebuild mode, the Rays having lost Charlie Morton and Blake Snell, and calculate the 2021 AL East win in probably seven times out of 10. So why extend now?
Because that was the theory last year and the Rays won the AL East. Because they were in Game 2 with a Deivi Garcia / JA Happ hybrid rather than a simple option.
They can see if Corey Kluber can be their number 2 for Cole at first, or if Luis Severino can be when he returns around July 1 after Tommy John’s surgery. There is a needle-point storyline in which Cole, Kluber, and Severino are supported by the talent and depth of Garcia, Domingo German, Michael King, Jordan Montgomery, and Clark Schmidt.
The most likely scenario is that they need a starter before the trade deadline. Why wait? Especially if they can find someone profitable with years of control. Castillo falls into this category, as does the following, but 1. I haven’t heard that any of the starters below are available, and 2. If and when they are, struggling teams with better farming systems than the Yankees, like the Blue Jays, Rays and Twins, could beat them. Still, the Yanks should have a $ 1.25 available as a seduction for:
1. German Marquez, Rockies
The right-hander is underrated, durable, and doesn’t turn 26 until February. His killer stuff would play even better away from altitude. Owes three years at $ 26 million or four years at $ 39.5 million if his 2024 option is chosen and counts $ 8.6 million for the luxury tax.
Colorado is known for its lack of movement in the commercial market, so don’t expect that. But I think the Rockies are poorly built. To deal with the physical and tactical drawback of playing a mile high, the Rockies would have to be the $ 130 million paycheck, filling their organization with strong arms and their roster with versatility and depth. A financially high roster with Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Trevor Story keeps local stars and fans alike, but prevents adequate depth all around. They must deepen and disperse their funds.
If I’m the Yanks, I’ll at least offer a package of Garcia or Schmidt, Clint Frazier or Miguel Andjuar and high-end prospects Luis Gil or Luis Medina and see if that’s close to $ 1.25.
2. Kyle Hendricks, cubs
All of the picks on this list are from NL, many from weak NL Central, so consider the competition. But think of Hendricks as a right-wing Jimmy Key with durability – a discerning artist with courage. He has three years left at $ 43.5 million or four at $ 58 million if his 2024 option is reverted and costs $ 14 million for luxury tax payrolls (so the Cubs should take Adam Ottavino as a financial counterweight if the Yanks hoped to stay below the $ 210 million threshold). The Cubs prefer to move Kris Bryant or Willson Contreras and try to win NL Central with Hendricks as an ace.
3. Pablo Lopez, Marlins
The Marlins love their rotating top three of Sandy Alcantara, Sixto Sanchez and Lopez. But they’re going to have a hard time recruiting crimes. Offer an offer built around Frazier or Andujar plus Estevan Florial. Lopez might not be a # 2 starter, but he’s durable with elite makeup and strike-throwing abilities, and not even eligible for officiating until the next offseason.
4. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers
Milwaukee has one of the worst farming systems of the majors. Woodruff is one of the few assets to help deepen the talent base. His business is with Marquez and Castillo, but without the sustainability or consistency. It should therefore bring less in return. Still, he turns 28 in February, has four years of control with those high-end guns, and owes just $ 3.275 million this season.
5. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks
Are Arizona watching the Dodgers and Padres and think it will be time before they can win NL West? Will Gallen be part of this club? He’s not even eligible for arbitration until next season. The right-hander has one of the best inventories of land because it is overflowing not only with stuff, but with diversity.
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