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This should be obvious now – but anyway, that's not the case. Whenever @realDonldTrump says something wild, you can bet that the real Donald Trump is considering something sensible – and vice versa. Often, the commander-in-chief does the opposite of what his social media have just said. Trump the Twitterer is the yin for trump the president's yang.
The Chinese, who invented philosophical dualism, are suspected of having understood this now. This could mean that Beijing is less frightened by its latest outbursts than markets, which slide.
On arrival at the G7 summit this weekend, Trump intensified the trade war: its response to China's latest tariff escalation. It's quite spectacular, even in terms of the criteria of the 45th Presidency. The Treasury has described China as a "currency manipulator" – because it is true. Trump ordered big American companies to find an "alternative to China". On Twitter, Trump called Xi an enemy – only a few weeks after calling him "friend". He also reprimanded the Chinese for failing to stop the flow of fentanyl – the dangerous opioid – in America, as they had announced. No military threat at the moment – but hey, it's only Saturday morning.
In the spirit of Trump, all this means one thing: he thinks that commercial peace is about to break out. He in turn plays real estate agents in New York: multiply the problems to force a market. This is the great game of Trump since always: the mystery is whether Beijing plays the game or not. Did they understand the art of his diplomatic contract?
Twitter Trump began his flood of false consciousness yesterday saying, "My only question is who is our biggest enemy, Jay Powell or President Xi?" LOL! He then announced a 25 to 30 percent increase in purchases of Chinese products and products, as well as an increase of 10 to 15 percent of the remaining $ 300 billion. "We do not need China and, frankly, we would be better without them," he said.
Ignore the noise and watch the timing. The president wrote these tweets while he was traveling to Europe for the G7. Trump is still worsening global tensions on his way to these heights. It is now a well-repeated routine. He wants to exacerbate the concerns of US allies – threatening disorder in the global order – so that they in turn can put pressure on China.
Trump pushes his crazy 2.0 theory (this time he's on social media) to its limits. If he can convince Beijing that it is irrational enough to bring down global markets – despite the fact that he needs a strong economy to win again by 2020 – he could to force Xi to concede. We have read in recent days that Beijing thinks that Trump is politically weak at home: they can read the polls in other words. Do they still think now?
It's big and scary, the interaction of superpowers is still. But the rule of yin and yang trump is valid. When Trump calls Xi his friend, the markets must really be scared: it means he is preparing to stir up trade tensions. Similarly, when it threatens Beijing with everything in the US non-military arsenal, a major de-escalation is to be expected. Will it work? China, famous, thinks for centuries: so it is possible that we do not know the answer before long.
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