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The NCAA Tournament has finally arrived! Will we see another seed # 16 beating a seed # 1? Will Gonzaga finally win his first national championship? Will Zion Williamson's shoe still explode? We can not tell you exactly what will happen in the next three weeks, but we can help steer you in the right direction when you choose your support using our March Madness prediction model. You can learn more about how the system works here, as well as what the model has to say about the fate of the best seeds, the black horses and Cinderellas to watch for and the favorites to avoid. That madness begins …
East Region
Best seed prospects: According to the model FiveThirtyEight, the seed of head duke has the best chance of qualifying for the Final Four overall (53% probability) and the best chance of winning the national title (19%).
The Blue Devils are led by four first-round candidates, including Zion Williamson, one of the greatest talents in recent memory. Duke is a star player in the offensive and a lot more stingy in defense than many realize. This is one of Mike Krzyzewski's most balanced teams. This is the first project since 2010 to be in the top six under Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offensive and defense parameters. This team won the national title.
What is missing, however, is the contact along the perimeter. Duke draws 30.2% off the bow, the worst score among the teams qualified for the tournaments. In an offensive era dominated by space and the perimeter more and more marked, the Blue Devils could resist the trend that rages.
On the other side of the region is the winner of the Big Ten Conference, Michigan State. As a reward, the No. 2 Spartans have the honor of a potential match against the first overall head of the Elite Eight. Head Coach Tom Izzo was not too happy. The Spartans were injured but remain one of the most balanced teams in the country, ranking in the top eight in Pomeroy's adjusted offensive and defense statistics.
Sneaky Final Four Choice: Number 4 Virginia Tech. Under the leadership of Kerry Blackshear Jr. and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Hokies form a balanced team that ranks among the top 25 Pomeroy teams in attack and defense. Although they lost eight times, only two of them were double-digit. Virginia Tech also has a rather unfriendly draw, with winnable opening games against Saint Louis (87%) and the winner of the Mississippi State-Liberty (63%), before most likely facing the mastodon of Duke. We give the Hokies a respectable 25% chance against the Blue Devils – and 54% against those who emerge from the bottom of the region if they manage to overthrow Duke.
Do not bet on: n ° 3 LSU. While his coach Will Wade is involved in a "pay-for-play" scandal and his team is probably overvalued as a 3-headed seed, the Bayou Bengals could be ripe for a surprise in this tournament. Pomeroy ranked only 18th, which is about the quality of a # 5 seed, largely due to a defense that did not even beat the top 60 in terms of adjusted efficiency. (This appeared in the 51 points of the second half that they allocated to Florida as they lost their first match of the SEC tournament.) Their NCAA career is also not easy: Yale is not an opponent at the top of the list. Maryland, potential opponent of the second round, and we give the Tigers only 26% chance to defeat Michigan State if the teams meet in the Sixteen Six football tournament. This is undoubtedly the first three seeded the lowest rated in the field.
Cinderella watch: N ° 11 Belmont. East is in first place, with Duke and Michigan State absorbing most of the chances of the Final Four. But the Bruins are an intriguing team among the lowest ranked because of an impressive offensive by the swinging Dyman Windler. According to Pomeroy, Belmont ranks 20th in the country in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency (and at the national level in gross points per game behind Gonzaga), while Windler is one of only three national players to register an average of 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. Even if the Bruins must win a match against Temple to get 64 players – we give them a 59% chance – they would have a very competitive 39% chance to upset Maryland in the first round and even better. chance against the winner LSU / Yale.
Player to watch: Cassius Winston, State of Michigan
Three years ago, Zzo thought that his 6-foot-1 freshman could be the best smuggler in the state of Michigan since Magic Johnson. The versatile leader of the Spartans, one of the best leaders in the country, validates the comment of his coach. Only Murray State's Morant Mor, a fearsome lottery pick in this year's project, has a higher turnout than Winston (46.0%). And behind Winston, the Spartans help out the most goals in the country.
The junior is also Izzo's first scorer and one of the biggest threats in the country's perimeter, shooting more than 40% of attacks beyond the arc. While his injuries were tirelessly undermining the Spartans of their production on the field, Winston raised his game to compensate. As he told Athletic, "I have to do a lot for my team to win."
Probably the first round upset: # 9 VCU on center # 8 (47%); No. 11 Belmont * on No. 6 Maryland (39%); # 10 Minnesota on # 7 Louisville (34%)
(* Must win the game first.)
West region
Best seed prospects: Gonzaga is by far the best team in the West, but the Zags, although they reached the final two years ago, did not always perform well in the spotlight of the tournament. Nevertheless, according to our model, Gonzaga has a 70% chance of reaching the Elite Eight and the third best chance of the team reaching the national championship match (26%).
If Gonzaga faces Syracuse in the second round, the Orange zone defense could be a problem for the Bulldogs. This is Mark Few's best offense in Spokane, but it can be put to the test by the terrible defenses of the West: four of the top 15 are in this region, including the top two in Texas Tech and Michigan.
Sneaky Final Four Choice: Number 4 State of Florida. In the KenPom Top 20 for a good part of the season, the Seminoles are hoping to take advantage of last season's tournament run, which allowed them to reach a 4-point margin to qualify for the Final Four. FSU has a dominant defense (No. 9 in Pomeroy's odds) and a balanced alignment in which four players have accumulated at least 2.5 winning actions. This tie is not great either: Vermont is not particularly difficult as a first round enemy and Marquette is very beatable (more details below). The first seed, Gonzaga, is likely looming after that, and we are giving the US FS a 24% chance against the Zags – but the Seminoles would have a 48% chance of qualifying for the Final Four. they managed to gain the advantage.
Do not bet on: n ° 5 Marquette. Fifth ranked teams are generally not likely to overtake the Sweet 16 anyway, but Marquette could be a particularly bad choice. According to power estimates FiveThirtyEight, the Golden Eagles are by far the worst No. 5 favorite of the pack, and a date in the first round with the mid-major superstar of the group, Ja Morant, was not favorable to them. Marquette has his own power of star in junior goalie Markus Howard, who ranks sixth in the country averaging 25 points per game, but this team has lost five of its last six games and still faces a difficult course .
Cinderella watch: N ° 10 Florida. The Gators may have been one of the last teams to slip into the group of 68, but they could be on the brink of doing damage now that they are here. They shot Nevada, a No. 7 in the standings, in the first round, and we give Florida a 42% chance of luring opponents. Last year's national finalist, Michigan, is probably waiting for the second round. It's a tough match (23% odds for Florida) – but if the Gators win, they have a 38% chance of reaching the Elite Eight. In an area with a number of good but imperfect options, Florida is better than the typical seed of 10 seeds.
Player to watch: Brandon Clarke, Gonzaga
The pivot of the Zags is not the choice of the consensus lottery, any more than the two veteran guards who together started 87% of Gonzaga's matches in the last two seasons. This is Brandon Clarke, a transfer from San Jose State who is in his first active season on the team. He is perhaps the most underrated player in the country.
In a team that usually has a footboard protecting the rim, Clarke, 6 feet 8 feet, is responsible for protecting the paint this season. Clarke responded by setting a record of one season's blocks and posting the highest block rate of all teams of few.
"If I feel like I can get a good quick jump first, I'll jump pretty much with anyone," Clarke told me. "I mean, I've already seen Zion (Williamson) down the alley on TV, and if I can not jump at the right time, I probably would not do it with him, but … I do not see really myself do not jump with no matter who. "
Probably the first round upset: No. 9 Baylor on No. 8 Syracuse (48%); No. 10 Florida on Nevada No. 7 (42%); No. 12 Murray State on No. 5 Marquette (32 percent)
Southern region
Best seed prospects: Can Virginia No. 1 exorcise the demons of last year now that the team is complete? Our model thinks so. The Cavaliers have a 49% probability of separating from the Final Four and a 31% probability of reaching the first national title of the program.
With De "Andre Hunter, who was not on the field last year in the historic UVA defeat against No. 16 Maryland Baltimore County, the Cavaliers dominated at both. tips – the only team to rank among the top five in attack adjusted and defending Pomeroy metric. Once again, Tony Bennett's pack line defense stifles most offensive opportunities and successfully transforms matches into rock fights. But this year's team is even better offensively and should move to Elite Eight where they could meet. Tennessee. Thanks to Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield, appointed wonderfully, the second volunteers play their best basketball in the history of the program. We give them a 22% probability of reaching the Final Four.
Sneaky Final Four Choice: Number 6 Villanova. Is it "sneaky" to choose the team that has won two of the last three national titles? Maybe not. But this is not the same team that coach Jay Wright led for these championships. After losing a ton of its best players to last year's championship team, the Wildcats have had some ups and downs and lost five of their last eight games in the Big East regular season. But they were also hot during last week, finishing a season in which they still won the regular season titles and Big East conference tournaments – and still have one of the top 20 offenses. of the country according to KenPom (fed by an absurd number of 3 points). Our power ratings think they are the fourth best team in the South, despite being No. 6, and have a 39% chance to return at least to Sweet 16 for the fifth time in the last six seasons.
Do not bet on: Number 4 Kansas State. Wildcats coach Bruce Weber nearly qualified for the Final Four last season, but they may find the situation more difficult this time around. K-State has an elite defense (he ranks fourth in the country according to Pomeroy's ratings), but his attack is prone to hardship – and could be down from his second-leading scorer, the lorry. forward Dean Wade, who missed the tournament's loss at the team's Big 12 at Iowa State with a foot injury. A brutal draw that puts Wildcats No. 13 seed Irvine of the United States in the first round, and then places them in front of the Wisconsin-Oregon winner in the second round, could limit their potential to qualify for a second tournament. consecutive.
Cinderella watch: N ° 12 Oregon. According to our model, Ducks have the highest Sweet 16 rating (24%) of all double-digit seeds in the tournament, more than double that of any other candidate. Oregon struggled to reconcile wins during most of the regular season and its chances seemed disappointed after the 7-foot-2 phenomenon, Bol Bol was lost for the season due to a foot injury contracted in January. But the Ducks rallied to win eight consecutive games before the tournament, including a convincing win in Saturday's Pac-12 championship. Oregon is like a state K-like mold – a great defense with a suspicious offense – but it's revealing, given that Ducks are a seed 12 and Wildcats are a No. 4. S & D They meet in the round of 16, we will give Oregon a 47% chance of being upset.
Player to watch: Grant Williams, Tennessee
The young player is far from being "just a big boy with a certain skill". Williams, the de facto leader of Rick Barnes' Volunteers, has been intimidating the SEC for the past two seasons, winning the title of best conference player of the year.
The Flights may well have the best offense of Barnes' coaching career – and we're talking about a guy who brought in Kevin Durant! Much of this offensive power can be attributed to Williams, the team's leading scorer and rebounder, who ranks in the 97th percentile in terms of the effectiveness of the scores, according to data provided by Synergy Sports.
Williams has an old game that you might find in a local YMCA, an offensive back-to-basket assault, and a foot-pedaling game that is mostly seen in post-ups, where it ranks in the 98th percentile in percentage efficiency adjusted to 56.1 from the field goal. He can also get the baskets of volunteers in difficult moments of the matches, because it ranks in the 96th percentile in an isolated way, obtaining an optimal efficiency.
Probably the first round upset: Oklahoma # 9 on Miss # 8 (53%); No. 12 Oregon on No. 5 Wisconsin (45%); # 10 Iowa on # 7 Cincinnati (34%)
Midwest Region
Best seed prospects: On paper, the Midwest seems to be the most open of the four regions, but we still give the number 1 North Carolina the best odds, with a 35% probability of reaching the Final Four and a 18% probability of appearing in the national championship game. These probabilities, however, are at least 8 percentage points lower than any other No. 1 team on the field and for good reason: the North Carolina offense depends on how quickly each game is played. The Tar Heels have trouble getting to the free throw line and giving up a ton of shots along the perimeter, which, in a slow-down semi-pitching duel, could be quite problematic.
After being waxed by Duke to open the season, # 2 Kentucky has caught fire in recent weeks by finding a balance at both ends of the ground and abstaining mainly from the 3-point line. No. 3 HoustonMeanwhile, he is currently enjoying his best season as Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon are revolutionizing college basketball and boasting a top-of-the-line and in-perimeter defense.
Sneaky Final Four Choice: n ° 5 Auburn. When the Tigers rolled over the Tennessee 84-64 in the SEC title game on Sunday, it probably caught the eye of many defenders. Auburn also beat Tennessee eight days earlier, in an eight-game winning streak for the Tigers, and 10 in their last 11 games. With an explosive attack (number 8 in KenPom's efficiency) that has earned more points from downtown than any other team in the NCAA field, Auburn can warm up quickly. We give the Tigers almost a chance to make the Sweet 16 – and a very strong 37% chance to beat North Carolina among the seeded ones if the Tar Heels are waiting for Auburn. The only kryptonite could be a hypothetical regional final with Kentucky, seeded second, who defeated the Tigers by 27 in late February to sweep their series of the season.
Do not bet on: Number 4 Kansas. The Jayhawks entered the No. 1 ranked season in the AP's qualifying poll, and they seemed to validate their choice by starting the season 10-0. But a 15-9 record (and some major injuries) since then cast doubt on the potential of the NCAA tournament in Kansas. It's a well-rounded team, but to say that it does not shoot well from the outside is a euphemism – see KU's performance at age 18 from Saturday's deep match against Iowa State. Add to that an unfavorable draw that places them on a potential second-round collision track with Auburn (see above), and we give the Jayhawks only an 8% chance of getting out of the Midwest with their championship hopes intact.
Cinderella watch: N ° 11 state of Ohio. If a Big Ten team that made 11 Final Fours can be a Cinderella, then you look at it in these Buckeyes. (Hey, the growing tendency of the committee to sow the depressed power conference schools so really falsifies the definition.) OSU is only 18-13 years old in the regular season, was beaten in its second tournament match Big Ten and has almost twice as many defeats. as wins since the new year. So, why are the Buckeyes a potential Cinderella? Despite the leading position, it is still a dangerous team, ranked 27th in Pomeroy's adjusted defensive notes and whose star striker Kaleb Wesson has returned from suspension. So maybe they'll give the Big 12 Iowa State a hard time. But above all, it tells you something about the other potential Cinderellas in this region: Seton Hall had a very tough first-round match with Wofford, who was under-sown; None of the other low seeds here beat the world. That leaves the Buckeyes, a team that has done everything to leave the tournament, but still has a potential for surprise.
Player to watch: Cameron Johnson, UNC
In a team that does not raise a ton of shots from the perimeter, Johnson is as deadly as he comes. After a campaign in which he barely made more than a third of his looks, the graduate student scored 46.5% of his attempts, making him one of the top 25 in the country.
Johnson has flourished in North Carolina's "every possession-is-a-transition-opportunity" program this season. He has become one of the CCA's top scorers, ranking between the 85th and 100th percentile for his transition, off-screen and spot-up effectiveness.
Johnson improved his conference play, achieving the ACC's top offensive score (132.5) and a live shot percentage (64.6). Suddenly, a player who was not perceived as a guaranteed professional now launches into a second-round pick.
Probably the first round upset: Washington (No. 9) on the state of Utah (No. 8) (49%); Seton Hall No. 10 on No. 7 Wofford (37%); 11th state of Ohio on 6, State of Iowa (33%)
Discover our latest March Madness Predictions.
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