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About 1 in 5 coronavirus tests performed daily in Los Angeles County come back positive, a staggering rate which officials say illustrates the continued onslaught of the pandemic in the region and portends serious consequences for an already beleaguered healthcare system. .
Around November 1, roughly the starting point of the current wave of coronavirus, only about 1 in 25 tests confirmed an infection.
Officials warn that the arithmetic is as dark as it is simple. When such a high proportion of people test positive and tens of thousands of tests are done every day, the number of cases ends up being incredibly high. And when community transmission is so prolific, officials warn that activities that seemed trivial months ago now carry a higher risk of infection than ever before.
LA County on Thursday recorded its fourth highest number of coronavirus cases in a single day, according to a Times tally from local health jurisdictions, perhaps an early sign of the surge in new cases linked to Christmas gatherings.
As of Thursday, 18,764 new cases were reported, well above last week’s daily average of around 14,000. There have been 205 deaths from COVID-19, according to the Times tally, the sixth highest number of deaths in one day. LA County is currently recording an average of 171 deaths per day over the past week.
These figures “can be distressing,” admitted Mayor Eric Garcetti, but he stressed that the number of hospitalizations represents a threefold increase compared to a month ago and the most in a single day since the start of the pandemic.
California released at least 37,000 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, continuing a trend over the past week in which the statewide daily total stabilized at around 39,000. That’s slightly less than the peak in mid-December, when California was reporting up to 45,000 new cases per day.
Garcetti, however, cautioned against viewing this leveling as a “plateau that will automatically descend.”
“I think it’s just a break before a new high,” he said.
Experts fear the number will start to systematically increase by the end of the week, as people who have been exposed to the virus over Christmas or New Years begin to fall ill and get tested. Although many of those infected show only minor symptoms, if any, officials have long warned that the daily workload is just the start of a disastrous domino effect.
A certain proportion of those who have tested positive – state officials have estimated at around 12% – will fall ill enough to require hospitalization within weeks of exposure. And 12% of those people will worsen to the point where they need intensive care. Some will not survive.
A high number of cases at the start will invariably lead to more suffering and grief down the line.
“If transmission in Los Angeles County, as we probably suspect, has increased during the holidays, then we will experience an increase in hospitalizations,” Dr Christina Ghaly, county health services director, said this week.
Conditions in the LA County health care system are already grim.
Hospitals are reporting significant staff shortages as many employees are ill or in quarantine. Officials have warned they have a shortage of available ambulances, with emergency rooms so full that transport vehicles have to wait hours to drop off patients – forcing those who call 911 to wait even longer for the arrival of patients. paramedics and emergency medical technicians.
Even vital oxygen supplies have been depleted by both overwhelming needs and problems associated with aging hospital infrastructure.
LA County Emergency Medical Services Agency director Cathy Chidester said Thursday there was still a shortage of oxygen cans needed to refer recovering COVID-19 patients to the hospital. home from the hospital, which would help free up beds.
The aging oxygen delivery systems of some hospitals, which have recently started to fail in a number of hospitals due to age and freezing in the face of unprecedented oxygen demand, have been temporarily stabilized .
“But they need to be fixed,” Chidester said. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is investigating problems at 11 hospitals in Southern California for infrastructure issues that must be addressed quickly.
Staffed beds in LA County intensive care units are essentially filled beyond capacity, forcing critically ill patients to be treated in areas not normally designed for them, such as recovery rooms. .
As of Wednesday, 1,635 coronavirus-positive patients were in intensive care across the county – seven more patients than the day before and triple the number on Thanksgiving, according to state data released Thursday.
On Tuesday, the total number of hospitalizations for COVID-19 in LA County hit a new record: 8,098. The number fell slightly on Wednesday, to 8,074, but the numbers are four times higher than Thanksgiving. .
Over the past few days, the net daily increase in COVID-19-related hospitalizations in LA County has been around 100, up from around 220 in mid-December.
“Hospitals continue to be inundated with COVID patients,” Ghaly said. “While the numbers are leveling off somewhat, they are doing so at a rate that is well above our comfort point for all hospitals – particularly when we face another potential increase in the next two weeks.
The real picture of how the rest of January plays out will start to emerge next week, where hospitalization numbers will offer a first clue of how serious the rest of the month is.
State hospitals have been urged by authorities to develop “crisis care standards” plans that would be implemented when health facilities are so overwhelmed that they must begin to prioritize resources based on likelihood of patients surviving.
Four hospitals have notified the California Department of Public Health “that they are approaching or entering crisis care at some point,” according to a statement released Thursday.
“These hospitals received immediate support and technical assistance, improving conditions to better care for patients,” the statement said. “No county has reported that it is rationing life-saving care or supplies.”
The state agency declined to name the hospitals, saying it could discourage “these critical notifications” or “individuals in the community from seeking life-saving care.”
The Southern California Methodist Hospital in Arcadia notified the state on Dec. 29 that it would be implementing crisis care guidelines. That hospital recently made the grim decision to summon a triage team to make decisions on the potential allocation of limited resources, but officials said on Wednesday they had yet to ration care.
However, Methodist did not notify the county that he had crisis care standards in place.
As of Wednesday, 560 more COVID-19 deaths among Californians were reported, just below the one-day high of 575 that was reported on New Years Eve, according to a Times tally from local health jurisdictions. At least 451 more deaths were reported Thursday, according to a preliminary tally.
California has averaged between 330 and 390 deaths per day recently, and LA County, between 150 and 190 deaths per day.
The rising death toll is plaguing funeral homes and forcing state officials to send refrigerated trucks across California to contain corpses as hospital mortuaries fill up. The National Guard has been called to LA County to assist with the temporary storage of bodies at the coroner’s office and relieve pressure on hospital morgues and private morgues running out of storage space for the corpses.
Given current conditions and the potential for even darker days to come, officials said the only way to tackle the pandemic is for everyone to redouble their efforts to reduce potential transmission – and take all necessary precautions to to maintain and maintain themselves and their loved ones. , friends, neighbors and coworkers to become infected.
“While it’s fair to say the virus is out of control, I want to remind people that it’s really up to us as a community whether or not we want to get it back under control,” said Ghaly. “The Thanksgiving rallies put a lot of pressure on hospitals… but we can’t let this stop us, and we can’t let it make us defeat. We have the power to control this virus if we choose to, and that’s really up to us. ”
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