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SEATTLE – There is a 14% chance that a magnitude 9 earthquake at Cascadia will occur in Seattle in the next 50 years, according to estimates by the US Geological Survey.
"Unfortunately, we are not able to" predict "the exact timing of the earthquakes," said Alison Duvall, principal investigator of the M9 project at the University of Washington and assistant professor.
As part of Project M9, which is investigating the impact of shaking Puget Sound on future earthquakes and tsunamis off the coast, seismologists conducted 50 computer simulations of various mega-quake earthquake scenarios. earthen.
"In general, we expect the Seattle area to experience strong shocks, which will last about 100 seconds," Duvall said.
The results confirmed that coastal areas would be the hardest hit and that places like downtown Seattle would tremble more than the rocky peaks of the mountains.
To enhance security, Seattle is upgrading the seismic standards for new buildings of 240 feet or more.
Currently, there are 18 new buildings of 240 feet or more under construction and 24 proposed with the same height, according to Emporis.
However, the city still has 1,100 brick or stone buildings devoid of any steel support, making them vulnerable to collapse during an earthquake. Homeowners are being pushed to make improvements, but high cost is the main stumbling block
Seattle public schools also make seismic improvements a priority for 37 schools. In the fall of 2018, 14 projects have been completed and 17 more will be completed by 2021. << Here is the complete list.
To prepare for the Really Big One, a seismic warning system called ShakeAlert is under development. This system uses real-time information to detect earthquakes as soon as they occur and issue a mobile warning to people a little further away from where the tremors have occurred. not yet widespread.
"Earthquakes and seismic waves are a bit like ripples in a pond – it takes time to reach points far away from the source," said Harold Tobin, director of the Northern Seismic Network. Western Pacific (PNSN) and professor at UW.
Although the PNSN teamed up with the US Geological Survey to create the system, they relied on the M9 project to show how long it might take for the destructive jolts to arrive either between 20 seconds and more for a minute, depending on where the earthquake occurs. earthquake begins.
"It does not seem like much, but it's enough for people to go to safe places and secure many critical systems – hospitals, trains, bridges, water and electricity systems, etc., "said Tobin.
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