2013-2019: Tesla sales jump from around 20,000 to around 20,000 to 30,000 per month … but Tesla Stock (TSLA) barely on the rise

May 23, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

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I think anyone who has ever played the stock market has judged it irrational, at least from time to time. When a title goes in the opposite direction to what you expected, it's usually the feeling.

Many Tesla [TSLA] shareholders are scratching their heads more than usual lately. I should know – I am one of them. There are different reasons for this, but I think they are better captured by a comment from the Tesla Motors club forum that identifies itself as "Subhuman". The first part of this commentary is here:

"Say it this way, I bought TSLA in 2013 for around $ 180 when they were barely able to make 20,000 Model S a year.

"Today, with 400,000 models S, X and 3 per year, supercharging network, Tesla energy, Gigafactory 1-3, Tesla Semi, Model Y, roadster, pickup, and so on.

"There is no chance that Tesla will have the same value as in 2013."

I find it difficult to disagree with this assessment. You can consider Tesla / TSLA as a high risk investment if you wish. After all, he still develops as gangbusters and faces the risks of growing pains that may ensue. But in 2013, it seems that Tesla was a much more at risk investment that had barely proved itself. The company currently produces and sells hundreds of thousands of cars a year, an extremely satisfied customer base, an extensive supercharging network, a clear lead over several years for electric vehicle batteries and standalone hardware and software. . make a profit. Why is its current value virtually unchanged from September 27, 2013?

Frankly, as I said, I find that amazing. Nevertheless, I will try an explanation.

One possibility is that the large institutions that were investing in Tesla at that time expect the observed value growth from 2013 to 2018, then exit the stock for a while while waiting for another spectacular growth phase. Another possibility is that they think, despite massive sales in recent quarters, that sales will soon fall and / or that Tesla's finances are on fragile ground despite high sales. I think both assumptions are unlikely, but hey, that's why I still hold so many TSLA shares.

Another possibility is fundamentally psychological. Contestants and anti-Tesla critics criticized the company and its CEO in a long war of messages that tarnished the Tesla brand. You can not easily escape Tesla's smear. The psychological ramifications even permeate the minds of the great Tesla bulls such as Ross Gerber and yours, as well as ordinary people who just follow Tesla vaguely and know what kind of products are being sold.

Back to Subhuman, he / she summed up the following hypothesis: "This is Big Oil's last chance to try to kill Tesla before he reaches the point of no return. Some will say that we have already reached the point of no return but that the vested interests have not yet done so. "

There are several things to consider with this inference. The first is that Big Oil directly or indirectly finances much of Tesla's spread in the media. This is possible. There are indeed smear campaigns of Tesla and EV financed by oil. (This is not debatable.) But how uncertain is the story and how is very questionable.

What's more interesting to me is what financial companies like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Blackrock are doing with regard to Tesla. These companies are not known to be good stewards of society. They usually act more like leeches, sucking the blood of society, sometimes to a very dangerous or lethal degree. Some major financial institutions hold a significant share of Tesla / TSLA, but the question for many is how much additional money they have invested in oil companies and major automakers, and if these investments influence their " guidance "on Tesla / TSLA. To be clear, I do not have an answer and I do not have assume to have an answer. This is an open question.

There is another possibility, probably more likely, that is much less conspiratorial. This possibility is that many people simply lack vision and do not embark on an investment as long as society is not a long-term and solidified success.

Amazon is a common company and a title that comes to mind for many Tesla bulls: Amazon, and many of them remember being Amazon investors while there was so much sadness in front of the fact that the company was not making a profit, when sharp critics told it that it was massively overhyped and overestimated, and when it was heavily short-circuited.

If you take a 5-year snapshot of the company's stock, as shown above, you can identify a few weak spots in the Amazon stock price chart where it might have seemed that the whole story growth was collapsing. Are shorts right? Did the critics have the story right away? Would not it be wise to immediately bail out immediately rather than waiting for the stock price to drop to $ 0 (or $ 10)?

Now it's easy to look at the chart now and to think that anyone who bought top and sold down was an idiot, but I'm sure a lot of people have done it – and I'd rather have a performance-based job who predicts the past rather than the future. The chart would look more scary for an amazon investor if you cut it to the place indicated by one of the orange arrows.

Tesla is Amazon? Will it be another success story like Amazon? Who knows?

I'm definitely do not offering stock picking advice here. As I said above, I am baffled by what appears to be an irrational market right now. That said, I'm not a massive institutional investor able to move the market with a simple deceptive memo and have a million sophisticated tools to read and control a stock market roller coaster that is more motivated by a lack of money. only by facts. I still think Tesla will be a gigantic winner in the long run. So I think it's the best place to store some of my money until I use it for a dream vacation and toys in the 60's and 70's. But it's just me.

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Keywords: Amazon, EV sales, Tesla, Tesla sales, Tesla stock