400,000 more dead than normal in the United States since the Covid-19 strike

Since March, at least 400,000 more Americans have died compared to a normal year, a sign of the great devastation wrought by the coronavirus pandemic.

An analysis of mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows how the pandemic is causing unusual patterns of mortality, even higher than official death totals directly related to the virus.

Deaths nationwide were 18% higher than normal from March 15, 2020 to December 26, 2020. Our numbers may be undercounted as recent death statistics are still being updated.

Our analysis looks at deaths from all causes – not just confirmed cases of coronavirus – from the time the virus took hold in the United States last spring. This allows for comparisons that do not depend on the accuracy of reporting causes of death and includes deaths related to disturbances caused by the pandemic as well as the virus itself. Epidemiologists refer to deaths in the range between observed and normal numbers of deaths as “excess deaths.”

Public health researchers use such methods to measure the impact of catastrophic events when official measures of mortality are imperfect.

As cases of Covid-19 spread across the country, geographic patterns of abnormal mortality statistics followed. Excessive deaths have so far peaked three times, as have deaths from Covid-19.

There are now excessive deaths in all states, with outbreaks in states like California, Colorado, Kansas and Ohio fueling record numbers of deaths in recent weeks.

Counting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months late in reporting. These CDC estimates are adjusted for the lag in mortality data from previous years. It will be several months before all these figures are finalized.

During the period of our analysis, the estimated additional deaths were 21% higher than the official number of coronavirus deaths. If this trend continues through January 14, the total death toll would be around 470,000.

By comparison, about 600,000 Americans die from cancer in a typical year. The number of unusual deaths for this period is higher than the typical number of annual deaths due to Alzheimer’s disease, stroke or diabetes.

Measuring excess mortality does not tell us precisely how each person died. Most of the additional deaths during this period are due to the coronavirus itself. But it’s also possible that deaths from other causes have also increased, as hospitals in some hot spots are overwhelmed and people have been afraid to seek care for illnesses that can usually survive. Some causes of death may be on the decline as people stay indoors, drive less, and limit contact with others.

Drug-related deaths also rose sharply in the first half of 2020, according to preliminary CDC mortality data up to June of last year, a trend that began before the onset of the pandemic. coronavirus.

Methodology

Total numbers of deaths are estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which are based on death certificates counted by the centers and adjusted for typical delays in reporting deaths. The coronavirus death numbers come from the New York Times database with reports from local and state health agencies and hospitals. Deaths linked to Covid-19 include both confirmed and probable deaths from the virus.

Our charts show higher or lower than normal weekly deaths. They include the weeks in which the CDC estimates the data to be at least 90% complete or the estimated deaths are greater than the expected numbers of deaths. Because states vary somewhat in their speed of reporting deaths to the federal government, these state charts show trends in deaths for slightly different time periods. We did not include weeks in which reported deaths were less than 50% of the CDC estimate.

Expected deaths were calculated using a simple model based on the weekly number of deaths from all causes from 2015 to 2019, adjusted for trends, such as population changes, over time.

The numbers of excess deaths are rounded.