[ad_1]
Let's put that aside. Alabama is a better football team than Georgia.
Sorry, fans of Georgia. This is true.
But that's football. The sport is not conducive to playing seven-game series such as basketball or baseball. And in a scenario of a match, the best team does not always win.
The best team certainly does not always win by two touchdowns, which Alabama has to do starting on Tuesday morning to beat the gap Saturday in the SEC championship game.
As long as the Scarlet Tide is favored by 13 points or more, the Bulldogs are the good side of the players. But if you insist on betting on Alabama, which many residents of the state of Yellowhammer can imagine, here are five things you will need to sweat to cash your ticket.
1. The explosive and healthy racing game of Georgia
Some have mentioned Andre Swift as a black trophy candidate Heisman before the season. The former five-star rookie was poised to become the star with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel moving to the NFL.
But a stubborn injury prevented him from playing a single 75-yard game until the last week of October.
Swift has now produced 674 total offensive yards and five touchdowns in Georgia's last five games.
That did not exactly relegate Elijah Holyfield to the rank of champion, since he rushed for 408 yards in the same five games. This is probably not a coincidence if quarterback Jake Fromm also played his best football during this period.
The defense of Alabama has the propensity to allow explosive games against the race this season. Sometimes the linebacker Mack Wilson gets out of position or the securities take bad angles.
And forget the story that the problem is solved. Dante Smith, of the Citadelle, scored 45- and 44-yard touchdowns two weeks ago, and Shaun Shivers of Auburn broke a 75-yard touchdown countered by a lockout that nonetheless featured some of those bad angles tackle.
Now, Quinnen Williams is as flawless as a defensive tackle that you will ever see in an Alabama uniform. He has 23 races this season and only has 4.5 tackles behind Dylan Moses for the team lead, an incredible feat for a player at his position.
He will have his share of Georgia ball carriers on or behind the line of scrimmage. And Alabama is very good at defending the race if it does not allow big games. The teams usually do not run five or six yards at a time in Alabama. But it would only take one or two long touches by Andre Swift or Elijah Holyfield to change the game.
2. Improve the race in Georgia
Quarterbacks are more accurate when they have time to cast. It's a simple statement. But it seems to be exponentially more deadly for quarterbacks who are excellent at pre-snap play and progressions.
The state of Mississippi, for example, disrupted Alabama's offensive in the second half by constantly hitting Tua Tagovailoa.
At first glance, Georgia does not seem to be built to take advantage of this potential disruption. The Bulldogs rank 99th in the country among the bags, and Andre Walker is the only player with more than 1.5%.
But Kirby Smart and his defense have started to have more and more pressure on the opposing quarters in the last month. The staff is also smart enough to weigh the risk / reward and send blitzes in a timely manner.
Tagovailoa looked much healthier the last two weeks. Alabama can not afford this to change course, nor to put pressure on Tagovailoa to intercept it unexpectedly.
3. Pass defense that does not allow big games
After sowing consternation among sports bets for cashing in the first half, Alabama went at half-time tied 10-10 with The Citadel and led just 17-14 against Auburn.
Then the scarlet tide unleashed Tagovailoa down for deep touchdowns. He scored seven touchdowns at least 20 yards in the third and fourth quarter of both games.
According to S & P +, Georgia's defense is the country's second-largest powerhouse in terms of marginal, momentary explosions. The Bulldogs are probably the best in the country to prevent explosive passes.
Tagovailoa has been supernatural for most of this season. But it is simply one of the best of the country on intermediate throws. It's hardly a weakness, but it's a less lethal version of itself.
Deandre Baker is perhaps the best coverage of the country this year for Georgia. The recipients of Alabama are terrifying, but according to advanced statistics, this secondary is significantly better than the LSU this season.
4. Public funds destined for Alabama
You have probably already heard or read incomprehensible gaming tips from members of the media who know enough about gambling to be dangerous.
Some of them emphasize the importance of betting against the public. "There is a reason why casinos have such beautiful buildings in Las Vegas." Things like that.
But erasing Joe Public on every bet is a square gesture.
Now, situationally? It's different.
If you find a heavy game and a big handle where the audience is everywhere, you can sometimes find a benefit.
According to The Action Network, since 2005, teams representing less than 40% of wagers on bets in conference league matches are cashing 61.5% of the time against the gap. Most professional sports bettors would burst into tears if you told them that they could hit 60% of their bets for more than a decade.
Starting Tuesday morning, Alabama-Georgia is the most-bet game of the week. Georgia receives only 37% of the tickets, according to The Action Network.
5. Difference of the special teams
If you follow Alabama football closely for a while, you are aware of the sarcastic applause that sometimes follows an extra goal or a shot on goal.
You do not have to rely on the Kick Six game to tell special stomach-ache moments that have slipped into Alabama's big games in recent years.
The Alabama trials were not effective this season either in the wake of JK Scott. All our respects to Jaylen Waddle, but even the efficiency of punt back from Alabama is at 67th place in the nation.
In Georgia, the placekicker Rodrigo Blankenship and the columnist Mecole Hardman.
The Bulldogs rank 10th in the S & P + Special Teams and Alabama ranks 92nd.
FINAL ANALYSIS
I do not suggest that Georgia is the second coming of 1888 Yale. He lost 36-16 to LSU this season.
As I said to start this post, Alabama is a better team. The tide is likely to win, and can even win big.
But it's a good match for Georgia. Georgia is ranked No. 3 in the country behind Alabama and Clemson. And I think Georgia +13 has value.
There is a chance for this to be the toughest game Alabama plays this season. It should be fun to watch.
Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper. He is the founder of Sports locksmith and also works full time for MyBookie in Costa Rica.
[ad_2]
Source link