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The conditions in Los Angeles, Miami and Queens are good for measles outbreaks, according to a new report that lists the counties most at risk of seeing the once-eradicated disease become viral on their territory.
Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin and Johns Hopkins University have identified the 25 counties in the United States most at risk of measles outbreaks because of low vaccination rates, coupled with high volumes of travel in the region. They include west coast cities such as Los Angeles, San Diego and San Mateo California; Tarrant, Travis and Harris, Texas; Queens, N.Y .; Essex, N.J .; and the counties of Miami-Dade, Hillsborough, Broward and Orange in Florida. The counties of Salt Lake, Utah, and Denver, Colorado, were also on the list, as was Suffolk, Mass. And King, Wash.
However, while some of the most at-risk areas near international airports, such as Texas Travis County, Honolulu County, Salt Lake County and many Florida counties, have not yet reported cases of measles, the researchers warn that it is only a problem. of time.
According to the report, travel from countries such as India, China, Mexico, Japan, Ukraine, the Philippines and Thailand constitute the main risk of measles. And the United States has already seen measles cases among travelers from Ukraine, the Philippines and Thailand.
Moreover, the team's measles risk analysis correctly predicted the major outbreaks reported this year in the Pacific Northwest, Los Angeles and New York, while 30 of the 45 counties reported reported cases of measles are also on the list, or they are adjacent to a county included on the list. The CDC announced Monday that more than 800 cases of measles had been confirmed in 23 states – the largest number in more than 25 years – the majority of cases being unvaccinated in orthodox Jewish communities in New York.
Related: There are already more than 800 cases of measles in the United States this year, the highest number in more than 25 years.
"We have long known that vaccine avoidance is a critical public health issue in the United States and Europe. Our results show how travel from regions other than the other compound this risk, "said Sahotra Sarkar, lead author of the study, UT Austin, in a statement. Sarkar also warned that "for the first time since the 1980s, we can expect infant mortality from measles in the United States."
Measles was declared eradicated in the United States in 2000, but declining vaccination rates have led to a resurgence of the highly contagious virus, according to Unicef (which reported a 300% increase in the number of measles cases over the last year) and the CDC. "The measles virus will always find unvaccinated children," the executive director of Unicef recently warned.
Related: Unicef attributes to the antivaxeurs the peak of 300% of measles outbreaks in the world
The number of unvaccinated young children, such as the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine, has almost quadrupled in the past 15 years, according to the CDC. According to the World Health Organization, about 110,000 people died of measles in 2017, and most of them were children under five years old.
The health crisis has become a political problem. President Trump recently said that people "should be vaccinated" to stop measles outbreaks. The brothers and sisters of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his niece recently wrote a letter of appeal to help him "spread misinformation" about vaccines.
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