The Hill & # 39; s Morning Report – Trump on defense in the face of economic nervousness

Welcome to The Hill's Morning report. Happy Monday! Our newsletter informs you about the most important developments in politics and politics, as well as trends to watch. The co-creators are Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver (Click here to subscribe!). On Twitter, find us at @asimendinger and @ alweaver22.

President TrumpDonald John TrumpO – Rourke: Trump propels the US global economy into recession Manchin: Trump has a "golden opportunity" in gun reform The objections to Trump's new rule regarding Immigration has been exaggerated exaggeratedly MORE is struggling to refute criticisms of his management of the economy, as the growing likelihood of a recession poses a serious threat to his reelection.

Trump and his key economics team are on the defensive this week after signals of an impending slowdown shook the financial markets last week.

"I do not think we have a recession," Trump told reporters Sunday when he returned to Washington after a 10-day break in New Jersey. "We are doing extremely well. Our consumers are rich. I gave a huge tax break and they are laden with money. "

The president also tweeted his confidence that the disappointing economic forecasts are false. But he was nervous enough to consult the bank's chiefs and market watchers over the phone to get their opinion.

"Our economy is by far the best in the world" President wrote shortly before the end of his New Jersey vacation on Sunday and his return to Washington. "The lowest unemployment rate ever in almost every category. Ready for strong growth after the conclusion of the trade agreements. Import prices are falling, China eats customs duties. Assist targeted farmers with large amounts of tariff money. A bright future for the United States! "

Trump publicly refuted the idea that his tariffs on imports from China were raising prices for US consumers, depriving US producers of market share, and injecting costly uncertainty into US firms, forced to improvise to change their supply chains. Instead, the president blames the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, congressional Democrats and the media for talking about a recession (The Hill).

Although Mr Trump is not responsible for the slowdown in global growth, economists believe that his trade struggles with China and Europe have had unmistakable negative consequences. Consumer spending remains the driving force behind the US expansion, and the president was sufficiently worried about the season of decisive purchases for the holidays, that he suspended the additional customs duties on Chinese products until the end of the year. December 15th.

As Niall Stanage reports, the president tells voters repeatedly that it is Trump's economy that makes him worthy of a second term. If the US economy shrinks, unemployment rises or financial markets collapse next year, the president's stranglehold on the White House weakens considerably (The Hill).

Associated Press reported that Trump, subject to conspiracy theories and eager to see himself at the center of concerns, has worried privately about Wall Street, but remains skeptical about some economic indicators, wondering if the numbers media and institutions are currently manipulating the data. give him a bad look, according to two Republicans close to the White House.

The American manufacturing sector, which plays a key role in Trump's speech on the "America First" economic revival, is contracting, reports Niv Elis. The sector has already experienced two consecutive declines, responding to the technical definition of a recession. In 2016, Trump persuaded voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as other industrialized countries, that the closed factories would close and return to the United States from Mexico and Asia, with jobs and wages in the manufacturing industry. In a world of global competition, robotics, new technologies and cheap international labor, this is not the history of manufacturing in 2019 (The Hill).

The New York Times: Is a new recession imminent? Here is how we could arrive.

The Washington Post: US consumers are holding back the global economy, but for how long?

Associated Press: Survey of economists: 34% expect a recession in the United States by 2021.

The Hill: National Economic Advisor at the White House Larry KudlowLawrence (Larry) Alan KudlowMORE offers insurance in the midst of fears of recession.

The Hill: Trump must make crucial decisions on the economy

More news from the administration … Both The New York Times and The Washington Post Sunday published articles about Trump's immigration advisor, Stephen MillerStephen Miller Stephen MillerTop's immigration advisor experienced a "shock of electricity in the soul" when Trump announced his campaign. New green card restrictions would probably have ruled out Trump and Cuccinelli's ancestors, Chris Wallace, becoming Trump's "equal opportunity inquisitor".. … The New York Times reports that an exodus of migrants from Central America is caused by violence against women, while the United States seeks to deny them asylum.

LEADING THE DAY

POLICY AND CAMPAIGNS: Democratic presidential candidates found a safe course of action by targeting the president throughout this calendar year: they criticized the treatment he has given to incidents of racial division and violence, including in Charlottesville, in Virginia, and El Paso, Texas.

As Brett Samuels write, the candidates feel more and more comfortable to appear as a white Trump racist or white supremacist, highlighting his equivocation in the aftermath of the White Nationalist rally organized in Charlottesville in August 2017 and the similarities between the alleged anti-immigrant manifesto of El Paso's armed man and Trump's rhetoric.

"[Trump] brought help and comfort to white supremacists. He winked and nodded, " Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenA potential GOP competitor said that Trump did not deserve to be re-elected, but that he would vote for him rather than Democrat Joe Biden facing an uncertain trajectory. Memo: Trump recoils at signs of economic downturn MORE (D-Mass.) Told The New York Times just days after the shooting in El Paso, which claimed the lives of 22 people, showing the Democrats' willingness to use these terms.

Trump's re-election campaign believes that the accusations against the president are filled with despair among the group of candidates seeking to face Trump next year.

"For two years, the Democrats have described President Trump as a Russian agent, and now that the Russian hoax is torn apart, they have gone white supremacist," said President Trump. Director of Communication of the Trump Campaign Tim Murtaugh I said.

Dan Balz: Trump has a reading book and very few plays.

The Washington Post: former vice president Dick Cheney appear at a fundraiser for Trump, RNC.

> Democrats after Cornyn: A crowd of Democrats line up to challenge Sen. John CornynJohn CornynThe Hill campaign report: The battle for the Senate begins to take shape The Hill & # 39; s Morning Report – Trump and the new controversy over the "Israeli squad", O & # 39; Rourke says it does not will never show up in the Senate MORE (R-Texas) in 2020, showing the party's optimism of overthrowing a Senate seat in a historically red state, despite the former representative. Beto O'Rourke's (D-Texas) to forgo a second consecutive Senate candidacy.

O 'Rourke's decision to run for the Democratic presidency sparked a keen interest in Cornyn's battle for clash: seven Democrats entered primary school, and one more could join a state that does not has not elected a Democratic senator for more than three decades. At the head of the field is MJ Hegar, a military veteran who has lost little of a home race last year, and the Houston city councilor Amanda Edwards.

Democrats are optimistic about the possibility of picking on Cornyn, who has been sitting in the Senate for nearly two decades after O'Rourke almost defeated Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzTrump goes ahead with the sale of F-16 in Taiwan opposed to China's Campaign Report The Hill: The battle for the Senate begins to take shape O 'Rourke says he will never be a candidate in the Senate PLUS (R-Texas) last year. Strategists believe that the primary domain will be a formidable challenger for Cornyn because of its racial, ethnic and ideological diversity. However, Republicans consider the large primary field as an advantage, arguing that a litigious primary could hurt the prospective candidate and use money before the general election (The Hill).

Politico: Michigan appears as a crucial battleground in the fight for the Senate.

The Hill: The Republicans are coming back to New Jersey.

> Polling: Concern is growing among politicians who are trying to understand the Democratic primary and, more specifically, the polls that reveal a constant high level and a lack of movement and trembling among the rest of the candidates.

Polls consistently show that five candidates stand out from the rest of the world, the former vice president Joe BidenJoe BidenPossible competitor of the GOP: Trump does not deserve to be reelected, but would vote for him rather than Democrat Joe Biden faces an uncertain path. Memo: Trump recoils at signs of economic downturn MORE in the lead, followed by Warren, Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersJoe Biden faces an uncertain path Bernie Sanders promises to make "the war on white nationalism and racism" as President Biden: "There are so many very good Republicans in the world" MORE (I-Vt.) And Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisJoe Biden faces an uncertain path Biden: "There are a lot of very good Republicans in the country" A match between a fighter pilot and an astronaut in Arizona could determine Senate control MORE (D-Calif.) In a certain order and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegButtigieg: We are probably on the verge of recession Chris Wallace becomes the inquisitor of equal opportunity between the Trump era of Donald Trump 's era. The confrontation between a pilot and an astronaut in Arizona could determine the control of the Senate. round the first five.

However, due to the brutal variations observed in recent days in the polls, the experts are wondering who is up and down, and if we can trust these polls as an accurate indicator of the state of the race, as many of them questioned them following the 2016 elections.

Pollsters believe that the huge number of candidates is a challenge for the industry, which also faces the ongoing migration of landline phones to mobile phones and online surveys, which some say is unreliable. Pollsters warn that current polls should not be considered a predictor of the winner (The Hill).

The New York Times: Julián Castro Obama moment.

More political titles … Trump asserted in remarks to reporters Sunday that Mike PenceMichael (Mike) Richard PenceFEC President asks Trump to provide evidence of voter fraud in NH voters Five years after Yazidis genocide, US warns that Islamic State bounces Log Cabin Republicans approve Trump PLUS will be his second in 2020 (Reuters). There had been speculation that the former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki HaleyNimrata (Nikki) HaleyHaley: "China's threats to the screen" in Hong Kong Juan Williams: Trump's problems with women Trump: Cummings' burglary response is not meant to be a wise tweet would be a candidate to replace Pence on the ticket (CNN). … Former Governor of Louisiana Kathleen BlancoKathleen BlancoMORE (D) died Sunday at age 76 (The Associated Press).

FOCUS / SHARP SOCKETS

CONGRESS: Members of the House Judiciary Committee shorten the August break and should meet to discuss possible measures regarding gun control legislation in the weeks following the shooting in El Paso and Dayton, Ohio.

The committee should prepare a package of bills for consideration in the House when all legislators return to Washington on September 9. The bill will include a high-profile publication ban, a measure to prevent persons convicted of hate crimes from obtaining firearms, and a "red flag" bill banning firearms from those who constitute a danger to themselves and others (Reuters).

An assault weapons hearing on September 25 is also scheduled for the committee, while Democrats call for the ban on these bills (The Hill).

> Cursing in Congress: Blasphemies – once considered a no-no among those opposed to the search for a public office – are no longer considered an appalling political offense, as they regularly occur among legislators.

According to a new study by GovPredict, politicians used obscene language that did not include the words "shit" and "f —", with 1,225 hits on Twitter this year, compared with 833 in 2018. CEO of GovPredict Emil Pitkin says that information "Shows a clear increase in the global use of curse words by lawmakers on Twitter" (The hill).

After the highly publicized shooting in El Paso, O'Rourke dropped out while addressing reporters, dropping an F bomb while expressing frustration with the media president.

"He called the Mexican immigrants rapists and criminals.The members of the press, what is it —?" said O'Rourke, who also dropped a "Jesus Christ" in an interview with the Sunday show.

> Confusion on Twitter: Sharing a name with a legislator can be a delicate task, especially when the legislator in question is the representative. Steve KingSteven (Steve) Arnold KingSteve King says "the left wing media" and the GOP leadership owe him an apology after the rapes and fires 11 essential comments you missed this week I'm not a Nazi I'm just a guy: what does it look like to be the other Steve King PLUS (R-Iowa).

Steve King, political editor at the magazine Under the Radar, often does not know right away what Republican Iowa says when he catches the attention online, but he knows exactly when he says it, as the notifications start pouring in from from his Twitter account.

"Sometimes I spend my day and you start getting notifications," Said the king. Like others who have the same name as a public figure, King will often be inadvertently targeted as online critics turn to Twitter to call politicians or debate the latest controversy of the day (The Hill).

***

INTERNATIONAL: Ignoring experts' forecasts of the global economic slowdown, the Trump administration continued this weekend to push for a trade deal with China. Representatives of the two countries will meet again in 10 days and if progress is not obvious, the Trump team will invite its counterparts in Beijing to return to the United States, announced White House Councilor Kudlow (Reuters). Trump Sunday refused to say he was talking with the president Xi Jinping from China. According to reports, the two leaders did not speak during the weekend.

> Hong KongThe pro-democracy protests continued peacefully on Sunday in heavy rain (Reuters).

> AfghanistanWhile Trump was looking for a way to pull his American troops out of Afghanistan after 18 years of war, Afghans cast doubts on a draft peace deal between the United States and the Taliban (The Washington Post). Meanwhile, Trump said Sunday that the peace talks were changing. "We'll see what happens, we really had 13,000 people [U.S. troops], and we will reduce it a bit more, then we will decide"Either stay, he told reporters. At the same time, ISIS fighters claimed on Sunday a suicide bombing attack at an Afghan wedding reception leaving 63 dead (Reuters). Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Monday promised to eliminate all the security zones of the caliphate (Associated Press).

> Russia: French President Emmanuel MacronEmmanuel Jean-Michel MacronTrump accuses Frenchman Macron for sending "mixed signals" to Iran Hillicon Valley: GM approves T-Mobile-Sprint merger | Trump targets Google, Apple | Privacy groups seek to intervene in Facebook settlement | Democrats hold Mueller hearings during electoral campaign on electoral security: US growth slows to 2.1% | Trump promises to react to the French technology tax | Trump will not give tariff waivers Apple | House Committee Issues Nixon Tax Filing Documents to Reinforce Arguments Against Trump PLUS welcomes today the Russian President Vladimir PoutineVladimir Vladimirovich PutinSunday shows – Bullock is entrusted with the responsibility of immigration by Cuccinelli "as an election security officer", Chris Wallace becomes "the inquisitor of equal opportunities" of the 39th time of Trump PLUS in the south of France before the Group of Seven summit this month. Macron wants to talk to Ukraine about Putin and tries to show Russia that the club of the major industrialized nations (Reuters) does not exclude it entirely. … In Moscow, Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu said Sunday that Russia would not deploy new missiles as long as the United States would show the same restraint in Europe and Asia. He was speaking after the Trump government's recent withdrawal from a Soviet-era nuclear weapons pact that the White House had accused Russia of violating (Reuters).

> UK-BrexitUK authorities rebuffed Sunday's Sunday Times report of official documents that Britain would face a shortage of fuel, food and medicine if it left the EU without a transition agreement at the end of October (Reuters).

The morning report is created by journalists Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver. We want your news! E-mail: [email protected] and [email protected]. We invite you to share the stories and newsletters of The Hill and encourage others to REGISTER!

OPINION

Trump is right: the traditional media "do a very good job," Glenn C. Altschuler, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/30fEQls

In the land of God: the evangelicals consider Trump their protector. Will they stay with him in 2020? by Elizabeth Bruenig, opinion essay, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/2ORBOm6

WHERE AND WHEN

Hill.TV's Rising at 9:00 am EDT Jeff Weaver, senior advisor to the Sanders presidential campaign; and editor Rafael Bernal, who talks about Biden's recent buildup with Latino leaders. Find Hill.TV programming at http://thehill.com/hilltv or YouTube at 10 am

The House is in formal session until his return to Washington on September 4 to begin the review of legislation to respond to mass shootings.

the Senate continues to meet pro forma, but it is not expected to return to votes before 9 September.

President There are no public events on his schedule.

The vice president will travel to Michigan to speak at the Detroit Economic Club at 12:10 pm EDT.

secretary of state Mike PompeoMichael (Mike) Richard PompeoLatest: a rally for democracy attracts tens of thousands of people in Hong Kong 63 dead as part of an Afghan wedding as the Taliban and the United States negotiate the withdrawal of troops Trump Meets National Security Team on Peace Plan for Afghanistan MORE meets Angolan Foreign Minister Manuel Domingos Augusto 15 hours.

The Washington Post Live The series of 2020 interviews with presidential candidates turns to Sen. Kirsten GillibrandKirsten Elizabeth GillibrandGillibrand: Rosy's economic outlook is not reflected in the everyday problems of families: Chris Wallace becomes Trump's "inquisitor of equal opportunity" Steve King at Gillibrand: The odds of my resignation identical to that of your presidential nomination PLUS (D-N.Y.) At 9 am with a journalist Robert Costa. The information is HERE.

SOMEWHERE ELSE

➔ State of supervision: Illinois This example is sobering as to why many states are not ready to secure their voting systems in 2020. Illinois spends millions of dollars to protect its system, but that might not be enough because the number of countries that commit data breaches are multiplying (Bloomberg Businessweek). … the state's tax revenues from marijuana sales are a challenge, even less predictable, according to a new study published today by the Pew Charitable Trusts. State governments across the country are extracting millions of dollars from legalized marijuana taxes, but revenues fluctuate dramatically as new markets install to allow a once-illegal product to assert itself, reports Reid Wilson.

➔ Health care: Women's Access to Contraception and Reproductive Health Care at the National Level Could be Drastically Affected Planned ParenthoodThe release today of the federal family planning program, which under the Trump administration, limited the funding of abortion. Women living in rural areas such as Utah, Minnesota and Vermont may have difficulty locating reproductive care, whether or not they seek to terminate a pregnancy under the Effect of changes to the Trump (The Hill) administration rules … United States. fertility clinics are struggling with an increasing number of abandoned embryos and the question of what to do with them (NBC News).

➔ Media: In an increasingly partisan and compartmentalized news environment, and with Trump and other leaders stirring up mistrust in the media, the presenter of "Fox News Sunday" Chris WallaceChristopher (Chris) WallaceChris Wallace becomes Trump's "Truth Equality Inquirer" Democrats denounce Trump's rhetoric on immigration following two shootings in the United States. mass. Buttigieg's comments disagree after the police shootout: "The badge has a story" MORE he's carved a reputation for interviewer and moderator of the tough but fair debate, which has extracted information and provocative responses from world leaders and politicians. "People come to me at airports or restaurants or whenever I'm in public and congratulate myself a lot on being fair," Wallace, 71, said in an interview with Brett Samuels. "Although I appreciate it, on the other hand, it depresses me, because when I started in the industry, being fair was the foundation – that you were trying to be as fair, objective and as impartial as possible. you could be (The hill).

THE CLOSEST

And finally … Joy Ryan, 89, entrusted to his grandson, Brad RyanA few years ago, one of her regrets in life was no longer traveling. She had never seen an ocean or a mountain. Brad, who is studying as a veterinarian, has therefore decided to take his grandmother to a national park in 2015, which has turned into 29 parks. Now they want to see the 61 national parks together. Joy, whose sense of humor and adventurous spirit are featured on Instagram, Facebook and in many television interviews, says:We have a balloon"(" Good Morning America "from ABC). More video !! The cover of BuzzFeed News is HERE.