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It appears that influenza circulation in the southern hemisphere – which includes Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, Chile, South Africa and Zimbabwe – is low. However, assessing what will happen in the northern hemisphere – which includes North America, Europe and much of Asia – must be done carefully.
Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO technical officer for Covid-19, explained that the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System is being used in countries for influenza and Covid-19. This system collects samples from all over the world from people with influenza-like or severe respiratory illnesses to check for viruses such as influenza.
Many countries continue to test for influenza, and in the last two weeks of reporting for this system, nearly 300,000 influenza samples have been tested. Only 37 came back positive for the virus, “so influenza circulation appears to be low.”
This could be for a number of reasons, Van Kerkhove said.
In the southern hemisphere, where the flu season is, many public health measures put in place to protect against Covid-19 could play a role in reducing influenza circulation.
“I think we have to be careful to make an assessment of what may happen in the northern hemisphere for a number of reasons,” Van Kerkhove said.
First of all, she said, the systems in place across the world must continue to test for both Covid-19 and influenza. It is also important that people get the flu shot when the vaccine becomes available.
Since it can be difficult to immediately distinguish between a Covid-19 infection and an influenza infection, testing will be necessary.
“It could complicate the clinical picture, but there are tools in place for the flu,” Van Kerkhove said. “So it’s really, really important that when the flu vaccine is available that people take that vaccine.”
Covid-19 has hit the northern hemisphere as many places come out of flu season, according to Dr Bruce Aylward, senior advisor to the WHO.
Much of the surge capacity used to manage critically ill Covid-19 patients initially came from the surge capacity available to fight the flu, he said.
“This highlights why it is so important to increase influenza vaccination rates this year, even compared to previous years,” said Aylward. “We need this capacity to manage Covid.”
There is also a “huge sensitivity gap” when it comes to Covid-19, Aylward said.
“We are entering a peak season for the transmission of respiratory diseases and therefore we are concerned that we have all possible capacities optimized to be able to handle this,” he said. “And part of that is going to be managing the flu and managing, ensuring optimal flu vaccination.”
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