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Local doctors are issuing terrible warnings about the Covid-19 pandemic in the weeks and months to come in the United States, reminding the public and elected officials that action must be taken immediately to save lives.
“We are entering the most difficult days of the pandemic,” wrote Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health on Monday. “The next two months will see a lot of infections and deaths.”
This must be remembered with the emergence of “the light at the end of the tunnel,” the doctor wrote. On Monday, Pfizer announced that the first data on its COVID-19 vaccine suggests the vaccine may be 90 percent effective.
We all need to keep in mind two seemingly contradictory facts
1. We are entering the most difficult days of the pandemic. The next two months will see a lot of infections and deaths
2. there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Today that light got a little brighter
Be careful. Mask
– Ashish K. Jha (ashishkjha) November 9, 2020
In his victory speech To the American public on Saturday evening, President-elect Joe Biden announced that he was forming a team of scientists and experts to materialize his plan to fight the pandemic and convert it into an “action plan” for the actions that he could undertake when he is in office. He unveiled the members of the advisory committee Monday.
But local public health experts and epidemiologists stress that action is needed before January 20, 2021 to save lives.
“The American people have decided they want a new approach to the pandemic, but we have 73 days before the new president takes office,” Jha wrote on Twitter on Sunday. “[Seventy-three] difficult days. Without action, [an] 100,000 more Americans will die on inauguration day. At least. We are therefore eager to act.
Infections are increasing rapidly in the United States, he noted. The percentage of tests that come back positive for the virus is also on the rise, indicating that many more infections are “missed”.
“The key is that we are unlikely to get much action from the Trump administration, so we have to look for leadership elsewhere,” Jha said.
The average number of new confirmed cases every day in the country is now over 100,000, but Jha said it is likely that the number of new infections per day is in fact between 300,000 and 400,000. The doctor said said he expected that by December the United States would see 2,000 deaths a day or more.
The situation is what experts have been warning about since April, according to Dr Michael Mina, a physician and assistant professor of epidemiology at Harvard University.
“As serious as this has been, the hard truth is that we are only now getting into what will probably be the hardest part,” he said. written on twitter. “We had many opportunities to turn things around before the crash. We unfortunately wasted them all. Now we still have options, but it will take real strategy and real leadership. I just hope we can start tackling this virus with good policy today. No time like [the] present. “
Mina estimated that the United States could see 200,000 new confirmed cases a day before Thanksgiving.
“We have a new elected president who is driven by science and reason and who will act quickly,” the epidemiologist wrote. “But I’m worried about the difficult months before and the first to get there.”
Deaths obviously follow and we are now consistently above 1000 new deaths per day. EVERYDAY…!
We have a newly elected president who is driven by science and reason and will act quickly. But I worry about the difficult months before and the first.
– Michael Mina (@michaelmina_lab) November 8, 2020
Jha suggested there were five immediate steps to take: urge the Trump administration to ‘do more’, push Congress to fund tests for states, step up state testing, wear masks, and stop rallies. indoors.
“We can do a lot now,” he said. “All of us: Congress, governors, mayors, us as individuals.”
Read Jha’s full thread below:
The key is that we probably won’t get much action from the Trump administration.
We must therefore look for leadership elsewhere
But first, a little data on how we got here
Let’s talk about this moment.
All data from @ covid19tracking using 7-d moving averages
2 / n
– Ashish K. Jha (ashishkjha) November 8, 2020
And as you might expect, an increase in hospitalizations followed around 2 weeks later
We had around 28,000 people in the hospital by mid-September
Now we are at 50,000 people hospitalized pic.twitter.com/8PXxtBWFat
– Ashish K. Jha (ashishkjha) November 8, 2020
So now we identify 100K-120K cases / day
This is the acceleration phase. Infections are increasing rapidly
But there is still bad news:
The percentage of tests returning positive has increased significantly
It was around 5% in early September, now it’s closer to 9% pic.twitter.com/AFBBqZYGnd
– Ashish K. Jha (ashishkjha) November 8, 2020
And 1,000 deaths a day today?
Represents infections from a month ago
Today’s infections are 3 times higher
It wouldn’t be surprising to see more than 2,000 deaths per day in December
So when public health experts say they are worried.
That is why
So can we avoid this?
Absolutely!
8/10
– Ashish K. Jha (ashishkjha) November 8, 2020
4 everyone just needs to wear a mask
Come on. To save tens of thousands of lives? No problem
5 Biggest problem is indoor gatherings – formal (meals) and informal (home meetings)
To quote @GovRaimondo people need to knock it down
We all have to do more
10/11
– Ashish K. Jha (ashishkjha) November 8, 2020
If we do these 5 things: push for more federal action, get Congress to provide dollars, governors to push tests, we wear masks and avoid indoor gatherings
We can keep schools open, save lives, prevent the health care system from collapsing
And that would make a much better 2021
End
– Ashish K. Jha (ashishkjha) November 8, 2020
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