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Through 
Spencer Custodio |
A second wave of coronavirus infections could strike Orange County after a series of increases over the past week, with more than 500 new cases reported on Sunday.
The county has not seen more than 400 new cases reported since the start of August, when CO was emerging from peak summer cases. As of Monday, 308 more cases were reported.
All of the counties surrounding OC except San Diego are in the state’s most restrictive level of trade reopening due to the high positivity rates and daily case rates.
UC Irvine epidemiologist Daniel Parker said new cases may paint a picture of what was happening a few weeks ago.
“The tricky part is when the cases start to increase, it’s probably something that happened two or three weeks ago. So the transmission that’s happening right now, you’re not going to see that in cases for two or three weeks. So when they show up in the numbers, it’s too late, ”Parker said.
Last week, the new daily OC case count topped 300 per day before reaching 512 on Sunday.
Parker said the best way to measure the spread of the virus in CO is daily new cases, hospitalizations, the positivity rate and new cases per 100,000 residents.
“It’s good to follow the different measures. Because a metric could skyrocket and that could be a statistical error, ”Parker said. “You could have a number of cases reported on the same day.”
As of Sunday, 201 people were hospitalized, including 72 in intensive care units. These are the highest hospitalizations since mid-September.
The largest number of hospitalizations occurred during the summer viral wave, when more than 700 people were hospitalized at any given time in July.
Parker’s colleague, UC Irvine epidemiologist Andrew Noymer, said the number of people in intensive care units could indicate a second wave.
“When the ICU stays above 70 for a few consecutive days, that’s when we know the game is on,” Noymer said. “But make no mistake, there will be a second wave in Orange County and across the country.”
At the same time, the CO positivity rate hovers around 3.6%, but the average number of new cases daily is 6 per 100,000 population – a measure that has increased in recent weeks. A few weeks ago, OC had an average of 3.5 new cases per 100,000 residents.
If the average of daily new cases reaches 7 and stays there for a few weeks, that means OC could return to the purple level on the state’s reopening system.
For now, Orange County is part of the Red Tier.
This means that retailers, malls, beauty salons, cinemas, restaurants, gyms, and places of worship are open with limited capacity.
Larger entertainment venues, such as theme parks, sports stadiums and bowling alleys, remain closed.
A return to the purple level would see theaters shut down, while restaurants and places of worship would have to move their operations outside. It would also further limit the number of people allowed inside malls and retailers, depending on industry-specific guidelines.
“The increase in the number of cases is certainly concerning,” Dr Matt Zahn, director of the Orange County Communicable Disease Control Division at the County Health Care Agency, said at a conference press release Friday.
“But it’s really important at the same time that we can’t let our guard down,” Zahn said. “You can’t lose sight of that since we’ve done well over the past two or three months. This has been an extremely important part, for one, our community to open up and get into the red level, and two, to prevent serious illness and death in our community.
He also said county public health officials have noticed fatigue around the CO, which means people can start to stop wearing masks and avoid large gatherings or crowds inside.
“Likewise, the virus has not gone away. And I think we all know there is COVID fatigue and I think we all feel it, ”Zahn said, noting the upcoming holidays. “We all think of family reunions, social gatherings, work meetings. Unfortunately, you have to think of these gatherings differently, because there is a risk there. ”
Most of the counties surrounding OC – Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino – are in the purple level. San Diego remains in the Red Tier.
Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Gov. Gavin Newsom said more counties are expected to revert to the purple level during Tuesday’s weekly level update.
OC will likely stay in the red category.
State officials are also warning of viral fatigue and an impending second wave.
“People let their guard down. They take off their masks, ”Newsom said. “We’re starting to see more and more people mingling… so that was expected, no one was surprised.”
State Health and Human Services Agency secretary Dr Mark Ghaly said public health officials statewide are seeing increased transmission of the virus from people who organize parties and other gatherings.
“They cite private household gatherings as a major source of the spread,” Ghaly said at Monday’s press conference.
Since the pandemic began in March, the virus has killed 1,509 people, out of 62,563 confirmed cases of OC, according to the county Health care agency.
For context, Orange County has averaged around 20,000 deaths per year since 2016, according to health data status. Of these, cancer kills more than 4,600 people, heart disease kills more than 2,800, more than 1,400 die of Alzheimer’s disease, and strokes kill more than 1,300 people.
According to these same statistics, the flu kills approximately 543 residents of CO each year.
Hospitalizations also continue to increase.
On Monday, 205 people were hospitalized with the virus, including 76 in intensive care units.
Meanwhile, some Orange County parents are driving their kids to Arizona and Nevada so they can playing sports games for young people like baseball, football, and softball because current state guidelines only allow practice and not play.
Zahn said county Health Care Agency officials had not seen any cases resulting from road trips, but worried about increased exposure to the virus due to what people might do when they leave the state.
It’s still unclear when state public health officials will update the guidelines to potentially allow certain games.
Parker said sports games for young people were difficult during the pandemic.
“I would say something like football, if you don’t really have a heavy burden in the community and move around indoors with people it doesn’t seem like a high risk. We all have to find acceptable levels of risk because we can’t stay indefinitely, ”Parker said.
Although he said sports like wrestling or indoor basketball are of concern as the virus is more easily spread indoors.
“Outdoor activities where you don’t have to be very close to people for a lot of the time doesn’t worry me too much,” Parker said. “If you’re on a soccer field or soccer field, you’re going to be in closer contact with people,” Parker said. “So it’s not completely without risk. But being outside really helps a lot.
Due to the ever-changing situation with the virus, Parker said people will need to constantly do risk assessments before trying to resume pre-pandemic activities.
“You’re not going to stop living completely, you’re just going to balance out risky behavior. For example, how important is it for me to have a beer in a bar tonight, which is really risky. Or go to the park to play catch, which is less risky, ”Parker said. “We just have to find ways to balance these things.”
Here are the latest figures on viruses in Orange County from county data:
Infections | Hospitalizations and Deaths | City by city data | Demography
Spencer Custodio is a Voice of OC reporter. You can reach him at [email protected] Follow him on twitter @SpencerCustodio
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