Coronavirus outbreak in Bay Area could mean huge reopening reversal as early as next week

As coronavirus cases increase in California, three other Bay Area counties could pull back as early as next week to a more restrictive level in the state’s plan to reopen – which would place new limits on businesses as let the critical vacation period begin.

Napa and Santa Clara counties are on track to decline from “moderate” orange to “substantial” red in the state’s next assessment on November 17. Solano County could retreat to the most restrictive “widespread” purple level after hovering over the edge for several weeks.

They would follow California’s 11 counties, including Contra Costa and Santa Cruz, which were pushed back to more restrictive levels on Tuesday. San Francisco has also closed indoor restaurants due to spikes in coronavirus cases.

County officials say a number of factors are behind the spike in infections, including domestic transmission, large gatherings, Halloween activities, difficulties in contact tracing and “pandemic fatigue” .

Placement in California’s four-tier reopening system is determined by three coronavirus parameters: the rate of new cases (adjusted by the state for test levels), the rate of positive tests, and a new measure of ‘equity.

Counties that fail to meet one or more of these thresholds for their level for two consecutive weeks are moved to the next most restrictive level – although counties can apply to stay within their level by showing mitigating factors.

“ Exponential ” rise in Napa

Napa has been at risk of moving to a more restrictive level for several weeks. At the end of October, the county’s adjusted case rate was 4.3 per 100,000, above the red level cutoff of 4.

The most recent level assignment shows that Napa’s case rate has climbed to 7.7 per 100,000. While that rate actually falls into the purple level, the state’s health department said Tuesday that counties could only move back one level at a time, which would put Napa in the red level.

In a presentation Tuesday to the Napa County Oversight Board, Health Officer Dr Karen Relucio said, “Over the past two weeks, cases have increased essentially exponentially.”

Relucio said developments indicate “there is some complacency” and that the county’s move to less restrictive levels has been accompanied by a mistaken perception that “things are back to normal”. She said the numbers reflected public weariness with the pandemic.

Relucio said the largest share of Napa cases, 35%, came from unknown community transmission, so those infected don’t know where they contracted the virus. Other factors are domestic transmission and gatherings, which could have included Halloween parties, tricks or treats, and other higher risk activities in people’s homes. Another issue is out-of-state travel to high-risk states, Relucio said.

The health official also noted a lack of public cooperation in contact tracing. If the origin of positive cases cannot be identified, additional transmissions are not attenuated and may lead to further spread.

Solano could face the toughest restrictions

In Solano, the adjusted case rate is now 11.3 per 100,000 – a huge jump from 7.1 at the end of October.

Like Napa, the county has been in danger of retreating for several weeks – but in Solano’s case, that move would put him in the most restrictive purple level. Solano County health official Dr Bela Matyas said on Wednesday that parameters improved last week to keep the county in the red level, but the current peak could send it back to purple for the review next week.

“Things are definitely getting worse,” he says. “We are experiencing what I think is a real second wave.”

Matyas said if the county were to upgrade to the purple level, it will file an appeal with the state in the hopes of getting one more week in the red. But on Thanksgiving, Solano County could be back in the purple tier.

In late October, Matyas said “huge inappropriate gatherings” were largely to blame for an increase in cases. Recently, he blamed the small household gatherings and suspects many of them could be Halloween. He added that this second wave appears to include more young people, including healthcare workers, some of whom work for collective facilities that have seen ongoing outbreaks at 15 sites.

“I don’t think there is a single explanation, I think it’s a lot of things including fatigue and listlessness,” he said. “As we enter the holiday season, people are getting together with family and friends assuming they are safe, and they let their guard down.”

Matyas said if the appeal was accepted it would save time for businesses which would suffer significant impacts if the county moved back one level, forcing many people to move out and restaurants unable to provide meals. inside. He said the spikes are not happening in the corporate sector and does not believe companies should be punished.

James Cooper, president of the Vallejo Chamber of Commerce, said in late October that such tight restrictions on the dawn of the holiday season would have dire consequences.

“A return to a more restrictive level would be a step backwards that would devastate local small businesses just as the holiday shopping season is about to begin,” he said.

“ No more drifting ” in Santa Clara

Santa Clara County has been in the orange level for five weeks, and its case rate of 4.1 per 100,000 is well below Napa’s – but just above the benchmark of 4 that would place it in the red level .

The Santa Clara County Public Health Department held a press conference on Monday to discuss the recent increase in cases that could delay the county’s reopening.

“Our role models are starting to look a lot like the rest of the country, state and region,” said Dr. Sara Cody, health administrator.

Cody used charts to show that at the start of October the average number of coronavirus cases was in double digits and by mid-October cases started to ‘drift’.

“Last week it is no longer a drift,” she said. “Our cases are increasing and this is worrying.”

Cody said the cause of the hike was unclear. However, she said: “We are about a week older from Halloween, it is possible that we are all facing pandemic fatigue because we have been there for a very long time.”

She said this is similar to the summer’s rise, which affects “largely younger adults between the ages of 18 and 34,” and noted that they were keeping a close watch on people aged 25 to 29.

Public awareness and education

Many counties have said public education is their primary tool as they attempt to limit case rates.

In Napa, the steps include making continued efforts to test, map and analyze COVID-19 hot spots, and work with community groups to increase awareness of populations at risk and provide support to essential workers.

The county is also working with chambers of commerce on public education, launching a “safe vacation” campaign and working with schools on case and contact tracing.

Napa County Supervisor Alfredo Pedroza on Tuesday urged the community not to let their guard down and not give up.

“We’ve done earthquakes, we’ve made floods, we’ve made fires, and now we have a pandemic, and this is by far the most difficult,” he said. “We are a community, we are resilient as hell.”

Kellie Hwang is a writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] Twitter: @KellieHwang