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The caldera inside Yellowstone National Park spans the three states of Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana and poses a significant threat in the event of an overeruption. Although such an eruption has not occurred for over 640,000 years, the system is constantly monitored by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for any changes. There have been numerous unsubstantiated claims that the supervolcano is “behind” an eruption, after calculating the average time between each event.
But Discovery Channel’s “ Curiosity ” series revealed how University of Wyoming geochemist Kenneth Sims studied the volcano’s radiocarbon isotopes to see if it was possible to make a long-term prediction.
Professor Sims said, “There have been three major eruptions in the past as super eruptions.
“This is the danger we face in Yellowstone.”
The series went on to explain why scientists want to be able to predict a future Yellowstone eruption.
He said, “Thousands of times more powerful than Mount St Helens, an eruption of this magnitude would bury western North America.
“A sulfur haze would dampen the sun and plunge the whole world into a volcanic winter.
“There is a battery of equipment here monitoring soil deformation, gas emissions and earthquakes.”
The narrator detailed how the USGS work would allow them to be notified in the event of a supereruption, but ideally researchers would like to know much more in advance.
He said: “They’re great for short-term forecasting, but can science find a way to predict supereruptions well in advance?
READ MORE: Discovery of Yellowstone volcano: USGS ‘worried about hydrothermal system recharging’
In a study published in 2016, scientists found that “radon anomalies appear to be suitable for predicting eruptive episodes.”
The article, published in the “Geological Society of London” concluded that: “Radon mapping is an effective tool to assess diffuse and concentrated degassing at the surface”.
The team studied its use in Vesuvius (Italy), La Soufrière (Guadeloupe), Stromboli (Italy) and Villarrica (Chile), where they found “faults and fracture systems control the degassing of radon”.
Scientists also recently uncovered evidence of two unknown “colossal” eruptions in Yellowstone using a combination of techniques, including radioactive isotope analysis.
University of Leicester volcanologist Dr Thomas Knott said: “We found that the deposits that previously belonged to multiple smaller eruptions were in fact colossal layers of volcanic material from two previously unknown super-eruptions. about 9.0 and 8.7 million years ago.
The study indicates that during the Miocene Period, Yellowstone erupted on average every 500,000 years.
However, the study led scientists to predict that the power of Yellowstone is “waning.”
Dr Knott said: “So it appears that the Yellowstone hotspot has experienced a triple decrease in its ability to produce supereruption events. This is a very significant decrease.”
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