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Poll of the week: A new Gallup poll finds that only 49% of Americans say they would shelter in place if public health officials recommended it due to a coronavirus outbreak.
That’s a significant drop from the 67% who said it in a Gallup poll conducted in late March and early April.
What’s the point: The coronavirus outbreak got lost in the news shuffle over the past month because of the election. But just because the media isn’t covering the pandemic at the same level doesn’t mean it’s gone.
In fact, we’re looking at some of the worst coronavirus figures in a long time, and unlike at the start of this year, it’s not at all clear that there is a will in the public to do what is necessary to slow the rate of d ‘infection.
A glance at the numbers tells the story. At present, the virus is raging in almost all states. As of this writing, a CNN analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University indicates that the number of coronavirus cases is up in all states compared to last week, except Georgia. A review of data by the New York Times shows that in more than 90% of states, there was a daily average of at least 15 new cases per 100,000 population over the past week.
Horribly, there are more new cases of coronavirus daily than at any time during the pandemic.
Even in states that have been touted as success stories, they have seen a setback. Take New York State, which has one of the most extensive testing programs in the country. On September 1, 0.8% of tests returned positive in the daily average, 7 days and 14 days. This week, the daily was over 3% on at least one day, while the 7 and 14 day average was above 2%. It’s a huge increase.
This rise in the positivity rate came even as the number of tests increased from two months ago, which should lower the positivity rate if the number of cases remains static.
Indeed, it is not just cases and tests that are underway nationwide. The number of deaths and hospitalizations is up more than 33%, according to the Times.
We are, to put it mildly, in a world of problems.
Still, it doesn’t seem like the American public or the electorate has much the same desire we did in April to do what can be done to keep the virus at bay.
It’s not just that less than a majority of Americans are unwilling to say they are “very likely” to shelter in place. This is because they are not isolating themselves now. A clear majority (62%) said they were only partially or not at all isolated in the Gallup poll at the end of October. The percentage was half that (30%) in April.
In an Axios / Ipsos poll conducted in late October, 53% admitted that they don’t always maintain a distance of at least 6 feet from other people when they leave their homes. It was one of the highest numbers in the pandemic. In April, the percentage who said they did not keep a distance of at least 6 feet never exceeded 34%.
And while 46% of Americans said they haven’t started planning their vacations yet, those who have are split fairly evenly between planning to celebrate within their immediate family and who they are with. live (30%) and with those who are not part of this restricted group (24%).
In other words, there seems to be a real chance that the holidays will turn into a chance for the coronavirus to spread easily, as people are going to congregate closely with people they don’t live with. (Public health officials say these small gatherings are a big reason for the transmission.)
Perhaps most concerning is that these poll numbers come against a backdrop of Americans seeming to realize that the country is on the wrong track with the way we are handling the virus.
Most (61%) told Gallup the coronavirus situation is getting worse. Just 23% believe the situation is improving, one of the lowest percentages in the pandemic to date.
While Americans know we’re on the wrong track, it has yet to spark the kind of habit change that may be needed to fend off the latest wave of cases.
Unless Americans change their minds quickly, things are likely to get worse with the virus.
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