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- Rapid, mass testing for COVID-19 could make a big dent in the pandemic within six weeks, a new study finds.
- “Our general observation is that, in public health, it is better to have a less sensitive test with results today than a more sensitive test with results tomorrow,” said Daniel Larremore, professor of computer science at the University of Colorado at Boulder and lead author of the study.
- Testing 75% of a city’s population every three days would reduce infections by 88%, “enough to drive the epidemic to extinction within six weeks.”
- Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories.
Rapid mass tests for COVID-19 – especially for people showing no signs of infection – could end the pandemic within six weeks, according to a new study by researchers at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health and the University of Colorado Rock.
Published on November 20 in the peer-reviewed journal Science Advances, the study suggests that rapid tests, while less reliable, could allow public health authorities to rely on more targeted interventions, rather than lockdowns. economy-wide, if they are deployed at scale.
Rapid tests are inexpensive and can return results within minutes, rather than the days associated with lab variety. If half of the U.S. population were tested each week, with those who tested positive isolating themselves from the rest, the impact would be huge, the researchers said.
“Our general observation is that in public health, it is better to have a less sensitive test with results today than a more sensitive test with results tomorrow”, Daniel Larremore, professor of computer science at CU Boulder and Lead author of the study said Friday. “Rather than telling everyone to stay home to make sure someone who is sick doesn’t pass it on, we could give orders to stay home only to people with contagious disease so everyone can live their lives. . “
According to the study, based on mathematical modeling, rapid testing of three-quarters of a city’s population every three days reduced the number of infected people by 88%, “enough to drive the epidemic to extinction. within six weeks ”.
“These rapid tests are contagiousness tests,” said Michael Mina, professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-author of the study, in a press release. “They are extremely effective at detecting COVID-19 when people are contagious.”
Increasing the availability of “quick and cheap tests” is one of the key strategies being considered by President-elect Joe Biden, Politico reported on Friday.
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