Johnson & Johnson Covid vaccine: analysts are cautiously optimistic

LONDON – Health care systems around the world are struggling to cope with the growing number of Covid-19 infections as they race against time to vaccinate vulnerable people.

The three vaccines currently approved for use by major Western economies both require separate injections, and since supplies are limited, governments are considering controversial tactics such as lengthening the time between doses to deliver at least one dose to the patient. as many people as possible.

A single-dose vaccine could dramatically improve our ability to fight the virus – and we may have one soon.

Johnson & Johnson are expected to provide preliminary results of their advanced stage trial for their one-dose Covid vaccine candidate by the end of January. If its jab proves safe and effective, the company aims to deliver at least 1 billion doses by the end of the year.

The J&J vaccine was developed by the company’s Belgian unit, Janssen Pharmaceutica, and is based on viral adenovirus vector technology, the same approach used to create the University of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. This type of shot is easier to scale than those developed by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna which are based on messenger RNA technology.

Shore Capital health care analyst Adam Barker said in an email to CNBC last week: “The J&J vaccine is more like the AstraZeneca vaccine, but it only uses one dose. So we know that this approach works (viral vector) and targets the spike protein. We know that target works too. But we’ll have to see what a dose does. “

The Morgan Stanley healthcare team said in a research note released last week that J & J’s vaccine offers “unique elements and could surprise upward efficacy compared to AstraZeneca, which boosts confidence in the drug. pandemic response and market recovery ”.

The investment bank is confident in the safety profile of the vaccine given early trial data, “as well as the previous success and safety profile demonstrated in their Ebola vaccine as well as the experimental use in HIV, RSV and Zika. “

A report from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, founded by the former British Prime Minister, calls AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson “the two workhorse vaccines” because they should be deliverable at scale and are more easy to administer as mRNA blows.

With J & J’s technology, it is estimated that the vaccine remains stable for at least three months at normal refrigerated temperatures and therefore does not require new infrastructure for transport.

J&J completed the recruitment of its 45,000-participant phase three clinical trial for its single-dose vaccine candidate on December 17. Preliminary trial data should be available by the end of the month.

If the data indicates that the vaccine is safe and effective, the company plans to submit an emergency use authorization application to the United States Food and Drug Administration in February. It is expected that other health regulatory applications around the world will be carried out in parallel.

The company is committed to selling the vaccine to a nonprofit for use in an emergency pandemic.

J&J reached an agreement with the United States in August 2020 to deliver 100 million doses of the vaccine after FDA approval or emergency use authorization, and the option to purchase up to 200 million additional doses as part of a subsequent agreement.

The UK negotiated a deal in August to initially purchase 30 million doses of the J&J vaccine with an option to purchase up to 22 million additional doses. The EU signed an agreement with J&J in October for the supply of up to 400 million doses.

J&J has also agreed to provide up to 500 million doses of its vaccine as part of a tentative agreement with The Vaccine Alliance (Gavi), which is responsible for equitable access to vaccines, including to countries with low income via COVAX. These doses will be distributed until 2022 if the candidate vaccine is approved for use.

“If J & J’s Ad26 platform is able to confer 80% + efficacy via a single dose regimen, given the vaccine’s favorable handling requirements and its large scale of manufacture, we would consider this a compelling result. Morgan Stanley said.

As for what governments should be doing in the meantime, Jonathan Reiner, professor of medicine and surgery at the George Washington University School of Medicine & Health Sciences, says: “The J&J vaccine is the reason we must not give up two-dose strategy of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. We will probably have all the vaccines we need. We need to focus on arming vaccines. “