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ComebackTown is published by David Sher for Greater Birmingham and More Prosperous Alabama
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Today’s guest columnist is Frank McPhillips.
When a deadly pandemic is met with exponential growth, the result is frightening. We have reached this point in Alabama and we need to speed up vaccine delivery.
In October, around 30,000 Alabamians contracted COVID-19. By November, that number had risen to 42,500 in one month. In December, the number of cases more than doubled to 111,000. And January’s cases are growing even faster than December’s.
As of this writing (January 12), more than 400,000 Alabamians have contracted the virus since the first official case on March 12, and the death toll stands at 5,347. It is not easy to understand the magnitude of 400,000 cases. That’s virtually the equivalent of every man, woman and child living in Mobile County, our second most populous county. No other state with our population has witnessed nearly as many cases.
More cases inevitably result in more hospitalizations, and more hospitalizations result in more deaths, especially when all ICUs are full. On January 11, Alabama recorded 3,088 hospitalizations, the highest level on record, and double the number of patients in Alabama hospitals in July, when the state battled its worst outbreak ever.
Intensive care units in Alabama now have an average occupancy of 94%, according to official figures released by the Department of Health and Human Services. In the Birmingham area, ICU occupancy rates at Medical West, Brookwood, UAB Hospital and St. Vincent’s are all at or above 94%, while those at all hospitals serving Mobile, Huntsville and Montgomery reach 96%.
Meanwhile, with great fanfare, Alabama received its first delivery of the Pfizer vaccine on December 15, the same day we crossed the 300,000 case threshold. In the 28 days that followed, the state recorded 108,000 new infections but only 87,000 vaccinations, according to the Department of Health’s vaccine dashboard.
It is clear that the state’s vaccine distribution program so far is appalling. We administered 1,775 doses per 100,000 population, the lowest per capita rate in the country. West Virginia administered 3.5 times the Alabama doses per capita. After four weeks, it should be unacceptable that only 1.7% of Alabama’s population have been vaccinated. At this rate, it would take more than three years to achieve 80% collective immunity.
Why is vaccine deployment so slow? One reason could be rigid adherence to the CDC-recommended tiered distribution plan. The first tier consists of 300,000 front-line medical staff and nursing home residents, followed by those over 75 and specified essential workers, followed by those aged 65 to 74 and essential workers. additional, and finally, the general population.
The tiered system may be more equitable, but what happens when, as in the case of Clay County Hospital, 90 of 200 high-risk medical staff choose not to take the vaccine? (although the hospital is overrun with COVID patients, running out of oxygen, and beds added to the ICU)? How long do we have to wait for those on the first level before moving on to the next level, and so on?
To speed things up, the state’s health department announced last week that the state will open up vaccination to people aged 75 and older, while continuing to vaccinate eligible first-level beneficiaries. Hours after setting up a statewide dating hotline, the health department shut it down as 1.1 million calls flooded the line. State hospitals have been inundated with calls from residents desperate to receive the vaccine.
There are approximately 300,000 health workers in the state and 350,000 people aged 75 and over who are eligible for the vaccine. At the current rate of vaccination, an essential worker (such as a teacher) or someone aged 65 to 74 with pre-existing conditions would not be eligible for vaccination until September, at the earliest. Just this morning, HHS Secretary Alex Azar rescinded his previous recommendation, urging states to open up vaccination to people aged 65 and over.
A second reason for the slow rollout is that authorities withheld enough doses to ensure a second booster shot for those who received the first dose. This policy may also change, as Secretary Azar, under pressure from the new Biden administration, urged states to release all doses currently stored in warehouses due to growing confidence that second doses can be delivered by production. In progress. It also helps that new vaccines (Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca) are on the horizon.
Alabama isn’t the only state facing distribution problems, but it is among the worst. According to data released by the CDC, our state is the lowest in the country in terms of the percentage of vaccines received by the state that were injected into the arms of populations (only 23.4%). The state’s health department, whose scorecard was updated last night to show a 32% payout rate, would challenge that ranking, but even ADPH would concede that Alabama is in the bottom quartile .
People are rightly angry that our officials are so ill-equipped to administer vaccines after having had months to prepare. I don’t claim to have all the answers, but let’s be clear: there are only two ways to vaccinate people – by infection or vaccination. With an average of 1 death in 75 cases in our state (400,000 cases and 5,334 deaths), unless the state recognizes the emergency and dramatically increases the pace of vaccination, tens of thousands of other Alabamians risk dying.
Frank McPhillips is a recently retired lawyer, devoted husband of Louise and father of three grown sons. Frank graduated with honors from Harvard College and the University of Virginia Law School, and practiced law for over 35 years at Maynard, Cooper & Gale. He currently sits on the boards of many nonprofit organizations including Advent Episcopal School, Impact America and the National Multiple Sclerosis Society. To receive Frank’s free daily newsletter on Alabama COVID, sign up to frankmcphillips.substack.com.
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David Sher is the founder and publisher of ComebackTown. He has served as chairman of the Birmingham Regional Chamber of Commerce (BBA), Operation New Birmingham (REV Birmingham) and the City Action Partnership (CAP).
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