‘No evidence of drop’ in COVID-19 rates in England’s third lockdown

LONDON (Reuters) – A third pandemic lockdown appears to have little impact on COVID-19 rates in England, researchers warned Thursday, with the disease prevalence “very high” and “no evidence of decline” during of the first 10 days of the renewed restrictions.

Until COVID-19 rates are drastically reduced, health services will “remain under extreme pressure” and the number of deaths will continue to rise rapidly, said researchers leading the REACT-1 prevalence study of Imperial College London.

“The number of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 (in hospital) is extremely high at the moment, and we cannot expect this to decrease unless we can achieve lower prevalence levels,” said Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics who co-led the work.

“The fact that (the prevalence) does not decrease has potentially serious consequences”

Prime Minister Boris Johnson put England in a third nationwide lockdown on January 5, closing bars, restaurants and most schools and allowing only essential stores to open.

Ministers called on people to stay at home as much as possible to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed and to give authorities time to roll out COVID-19 vaccines to the elderly and those most at risk.

But presenting his latest data – Jan.6 to Jan.15 – Riley said prevalence rates were 1.58%, the highest recorded by the REACT-1 study since its launch in May 2020. It’s is an increase of over 50% since the last reading in mid-December.

Riley also warned of immediate hopes on the COVID-19 shootings.

“The vaccine will only have a very limited impact on short-term prevalence,” he told reporters.

Paul Elliott, epidemiology and public health medicine expert and director of the REACT program, said stubborn levels of COVID-19 infection could be in part due to a more transmissible variant of the virus that emerged at the end of Last year.

“We really need to double down on public health measures – wear masks, keep your distance and wash your hands,” Elliott said. “There will be continued pressure until we can reduce the prevalence.”

The UK government on Wednesday reported a new record daily increase in deaths, with 1,820 people dying within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test. However, new infections – at 38,905 – were down from the recent high of 68,053 on January 8.

The health ministry said the full impact of the lockdown would not yet be reflected in the prevalence figures, but added that the survey underscored the importance of everyone staying at home and following the restrictions.