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But despite the severe restrictions, the number of cases is not declining as quickly as experts had hoped. Deaths continue to rise and public health experts and the government are starting to warn people that the country will be in this battle for the long term.
The new variant, known as B.1.1.7, has taken its toll in the UK, fueling an increase in the number of cases towards the end of 2020 despite the establishment of a national lockdown. Data showing an increase in cases among younger people suggests that this was largely due to schools having remained open, which allowed the variant to spread quickly.
According to Public Health England, the new strain first appeared in September. In late November, scientists began to worry about the growing number of infections in Kent in the south-east. The region was an anomaly, as while cases were generally on the decline across the country due to national restrictions, they were not decreasing in Kent.
This forced the country into a much stricter lockdown from January 5, in which people were urged to stay in their homes, households were banned from mixing – inside and out – and all. except essential stores closed, including most schools.
For many experts, the decision came too late. “It’s amazing that we seem to make the same mistakes over and over again – with increasing loss of life,” Dr Julian Tang, clinical virologist at the University of Leicester, noted in comments to the UK’s Science Media Center.
But does the toughest strategy work? The evidence is mixed.
Deadliest period
England reported nearly 70,000 new infections on January 4, the day before the new lockdown was announced. In terms of new reported cases, the country’s 10 worst days of the entire pandemic occurred between December 29 and January 11, with an average of more than 55,000 new cases each day.
Deaths quickly followed: of the 11 deadliest days of the pandemic, 10 occurred between January 9 and January 18. The country has reported more than 1,000 deaths every day, which has only happened once before.
A few days after the new restrictions took effect, the number of new cases began to gradually decline – and have continued since.
The seven-day moving average of daily new cases, a metric that mitigates anomalies such as dropping testing on weekends, has risen from over 60,000 on January 1 to around 40,000 in recent days. However, it will likely take time for the impact to be felt in hospitals.
“We know there is a lag between notification of new cases and subsequent deaths,” Michael Head, senior researcher in global health at the University of Southampton, told CNN in an email. “For example, a few percent of those newly diagnosed today may end up in the hospital in about 7-14 days, then about 1% of current cases will die in about 21 to 28 days,” he added.
The number of people hospitalized remains at a record level, with 38,000 people hospitalized.
But while the latest figures may offer a glimpse of hope, other studies, including one by researchers at Imperial College London, paint a mixed picture.
Unlike official case numbers, which are based on the number of people tested and therefore may not include those who are asymptomatic or have not yet developed symptoms, the REACT-1 study tracks current coronavirus infections in community and this time tested over 140,000 randomly selected people.
Steven Riley, the study’s author and professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College, told CNN in an email that the numbers do not show the kind of substantial decline one might expect if the lock is strong enough to reduce the number of reproduction. – the value indicates to what extent the virus is spreading: a reproduction rate greater than 1 means that the epidemic is developing. The government said on Friday the number was between 0.8 and 1, although it warned that it varied across the country.
The study tested samples collected between January 6 and 15 and compared them to mobility data based on the GPS locations of people using the Facebook mobile phone app. Data shows a decrease in mobility at the end of December, followed by an increase in early January when people returned to work, which the authors say could explain the higher number of people infected early January.
Riley said that while the study did not show a significant drop in infections, it wouldn’t be fair to say the lockdown is failing entirely. “Our main point is that we haven’t detected a big drop, which we really need to see.”
The authors further noted in the document that “until the prevalence in the community is drastically reduced, the health services will remain under extreme pressure and the cumulative number of lives lost during this pandemic will continue to increase rapidly. “.
Reacting to the numbers, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the numbers show the most contagious strain was spreading “very quickly indeed”.
“I think it’s too early to say when we can lift some restrictions,” Johnson said.
Vallance said the first data suggests that if around 10 of the 1,000 infected men in their 60s would die from the old variant, it could reach around 13 or 14 with the new strain.
The government has also come under pressure to compensate people who need to self-isolate. A government-backed study released in September found that only 18% of people adhere to self-isolation rules and suggested that financial compensation could increase that number.
Full impact will take some time
As the numbers are debated and continue to change, health experts and politicians are asking the public to be patient.
The full impact of the lockdown won’t be felt for some time, as it will take a long time – and a lot longer to stay home – to get the latest wave under control completely, they believe.
Head’s team estimates that the number of people who die from the disease is likely to remain high and not start to decline until next month. And while hospital admissions decline, the number of inpatients remains at record levels. As long as the number of people released does not exceed that of those admitted, hospitals may run out of beds.
“The daily trend shows that the lockdown is having an effect on these new daily cases,” Head said. “However, it’s important to remember that the impact on hospitalizations will only really be visible from the trends from the last week of January, and deaths are expected to drop in February.”
For now, all of this means that strict restrictions will remain in place for some time.
Senior government officials have repeatedly said it is far too early to speculate on easing lockdown measures which are now expected to be in place until March, and possibly until summer.
“That may well mean, for example, that any lockdown has to be in place longer than it would have been with the old variant,” Head said.
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