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Scientists have solved a controversial but key climate change mystery, strengthening climate models and confirming that the Earth is hotter than it has been for at least 12,000 years, and possibly even the last 128,000 years, according to the most recent annual global temperature data .
This mystery is known as the “Holocene Temperature Riddle” and it describes an ongoing debate about how temperatures changed during the Holocene, an era that describes the past 11,700 years. of the history of our planet. While some previous proxy reconstructions suggest that average Holocene temperatures peaked between 6,000 and 10,000 years ago and that the planet cooled after that, climate models suggest that global temperatures actually rose over the past 12,000. recent years, with the help of factors such as increasing greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.
This “conundrum” has “cast doubts among skeptics about the effectiveness of current climate models in accurately predicting our future,” senior author Samantha Bova, associate postdoctoral researcher at Rutgers University, told Space.com in an email.
However, the new research ends this uncertainty, demonstrating that current climate projections are correct.
The study “removes any doubt about the key role of carbon dioxide in global warming and confirms climate model simulations that show a warming of the global average annual temperature, rather than a cooling, through the period of the Holocene, ”Bova said.
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Specifically, the team demonstrated “that the cooling of the late Holocene as reconstructed by proxies is a seasonal signal,” Bova told Space.com.
To do this, the team developed a new method that allowed them “to use seasonal temperatures to obtain annual averages.” Using our new method, we demonstrate that the mean annual temperatures of the Holocene have increased steadily, ”added Bova.
Scientists analyzed previously published data on sea surface temperature, which used information from fossils of foraminifera – single-celled organisms living on the ocean surface – and other biomarkers of marine algae. This allowed them to reconstruct temperatures throughout history.
With these data, “we show that the post-industrial increase in global temperature has moved from the warmest average annual temperature recorded over the past 12,000 years,” Bova said, adding that this was contrary to recent research. . “Earth’s global temperatures have therefore reached uncharted territory that has not been observed for at least the past 12,000 years and possibly the past 128,000 years.”
“Given that 2020 is tied for the warmest year on record based on the new NASA / NOAA data release, our results show that the average annual temperatures in 2020 were the hottest of the 12,000. last years and perhaps the last 128,000 years, “Bova concluded. (NOAA is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States.)
By confirming the temperature records throughout this period, the team has not only provided further evidence of “the effectiveness of current climate models in accurately simulating the climate over the past 12,000 years,” a said Bova. The work “also gives confidence in their ability to predict the future.”
This work was published on January 27 in the journal Nature.
Email Chelsea Gohd at [email protected] or follow her on Twitter @chelsea_gohd. Follow us on Twitter @Spacedotcom and on Facebook.
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