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Anecdotes like that of Mr. Geismann, however, are not easy to interpret. Perhaps Schuchart and companies like her would have found another way to make ends meet or quickly rehire workers once construction projects resumed.
Economists have attempted to answer this question using data. Mr Autor compared companies with just under 500 employees – which might qualify for the original version of the program – with those just above that size, which could not. If the loans had been of great help, small businesses should have retained many more of their workers. Instead, Mr. Autor found little difference between the two groups.
But some economists say such research underestimates the impact of the program because it does not focus on smaller companies, which were less likely to have large cash reserves or other funding.
An article, based on a survey of businesses in Oakland, Calif., Found that those who received PPP loans were 20.5% more likely to say they expected to survive six months – but that the Relatively greater optimism was limited to companies with fewer than five employees. .
Robert Bartlett, one of the authors of the Oakland study, said economists like Mr Autor might be correct in saying that P3s saved fewer jobs than expected. “But for these small businesses, I think it helped them keep their doors open,” he said. “I’m convinced.” Many of these businesses, he noted, are located in poor neighborhoods or are owned by racial or ethnic minorities.
Daniel G. Guerra Jr. founded AltusLearn, which offers training and compliance courses for medical workers, in 2013. Last year, the company, based in Madison, Wisconsin, had six employees and was on the right track. course for a year of significant growth.
Instead, when the pandemic began, medical centers halted virtually all non-emergency care and canceled training.
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