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Rising sea levels are just one result of climate change, contributing to flooding and threatening coastal habitats.
A new study, published Tuesday, the University of Copenhagen reports that future estimates of sea level about to rise in response to climate change are grossly underestimated by some models.
Examining data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the scientists used a linear regression model to test a relationship between rising average temperatures and rising sea levels, focusing on measuring their results against pre-existing estimates.
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Researchers analyzed historical data to determine how the dynamic nature of the environment and new sensitivities can speed up or slow down sea level rise.
For example, the researchers used the hypothetical melting rate of a small glacier depending on its exact size as a potential confounding variable that limits the extrapolation.
The results of their regression model conclude that the projected global rise in sea level by the end of the 21st century is “conservative at best”.
“The models on which we base our predictions of sea level rise are currently not sensitive enough,” Aslak Grinsted, a geophysicist at the University of Copenhagen and co-author, told Bloomberg. “To put it plainly, they don’t hit the target when we compare them to the rate of sea level rise that we see when we compare future scenarios with observations going back in time.”
New results suggest that the half-meter rise in sea level temperatures predicted in 2100 could now occur with a smaller rise of just 0.5 degrees Celsius – below the drop of 1, 5 degrees Celsius targeted, nations must stop emissions by Paris Agreement.
This report presents a new accelerated timetable the world finds itself in to end the disastrous effects of climate change. Sea level changes alone can cause damaging flooding and worsen dangerous storms.
Data from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) already notes that the rate of global sea-level rise doubled from 1.4 millimeters observed during most of the 20th century to 3.6 millimeters per year between 2006 and 2015.
Projections for 2017 already indicate that all of America’s coasts will suffer from sea level rise higher than global averages.
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