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SpaceX installed the steel nose of the Starship serial number 11 (SN11), effectively completing the rocket and marking the end of production of a series of four virtually identical prototypes.
SpaceX has skyrocketed thanks to a limited production of four full-height ship prototypes with a more or less frozen design, simultaneously serving as a pilot for a nascent Starship assembly line while also producing high-fidelity prototypes for the first flight. high altitude program. test. Work on Starship SN8 – the first of these four prototypes – began around July 2020 when tagged material was first spotted.
Parts of SN9, SN10, SN11 and SN12 gradually began to appear over the following months. Less than four months after production began, (half of) Starship SN8 rolled onto the launch pad in late October to initiate a series of acceptance tests.
After roughly 6 weeks of unusually long testing, SpaceX declared the Starship SN8 ready for flight and finally pulled off a high altitude launch that made it only a dozen seconds (~ 5%) from a success. complete – much further than anyone else. really expected. This surprising level of success seemed to lead SpaceX to reassess its plans and the strategic design of its test plans.
One result was seen in the publicly visible tags SpaceX uses to identify the dozens of Starship pieces in work at any given time: After SN12, only a few unfinished minor parts of SN13 and SN14 were spotted, leaving the flood of activity. observed during building SN8 to SN11. In November, CEO Elon Musk revealed that “major upgrades” were planned for the Starship SN15 and all subsequent prototypes.
The implication was that SpaceX had already written off no less than three spacecraft (SN8-SN10) to prove that an exotic new approach to rocket landings could work as intended. If all three of these failed, SpaceX could likely use Starships SN11 through SN14 – enough prototypes to be successful or conclude that a redesign is needed. Ultimately, after Starship SN8’s spectacular success and last-second failure, SpaceX apparently concluded that it was unlikely to need seven full prototypes to achieve the first soft landing (s) and has effectively killed the Starships SN12, SN13 and SN14 in the cradle.
SpaceX likely concluded that SN8 has demonstrated that a large majority of Starship’s existing design is already solid, reducing risk enough to confidently begin major upgrades – much like building only a more permanent structure. after making sure the foundation is stable. Indicating exactly that, SpaceX has already started stacking Starship SN15 and has been producing hardware for SN16, SN17, and SN18 over the past few months.
This ultimately means that one or more upgraded spacecraft will likely be ready to carry the torch as soon as the SN10 and SN11 flight tests come to an end – whether that means continuing recovery attempts or pushing the envelope higher and faster after the first successful soft landing. (s).
The nature of these ‘upgrades’ remains unclear beyond the apparent improvements in fit and finish and the possibility of an easier to manufacture nose design, but it is clear that things will become clearer. much sooner than later at SpaceX’s current rate of progress.
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