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More than 600,000 Americans will have died of Covid-19 by June 1, according to the latest forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
The model predicted a death toll of 614,503 Americans – down slightly from previous forecast released last week, which predicted 631,000 deaths.
Warmer weather and wider vaccination could help reduce transmission by August, according to the IHME.
“We predict that vaccination will reach 145 million adults by June 1 and that this increase will prevent 114,000 deaths,” the IHME said in a statement.
More than 50 million doses of the vaccine have been administered nationwide, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And if 95% of Americans started wearing masks next week, 34,000 lives could be saved.
The British variant: The spread of the B.1.1.7 virus variant, first identified in the UK, could complicate any potential decline. At least 981 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant have been found in 37 states, the CDC said this week.
The team said they factored the expected variant into their projections for this forecast. In the worst-case scenario, deaths in the United States could reach 645,000 by June 1.
Other factors: Progress could also be reversed if people let down their guards, the IHME said.
“Transmission was contained during the winter by wearing a mask, reduced mobility and avoiding high-risk environments such as indoor dining,” IHME said. “As the daily number of cases declines and vaccination increases, behaviors are likely to evolve into an increased risk of transmission.
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