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Indiana will close their home program on Saturday afternoon with Big Ten leaders Michigan. The Wolverines are heading for the conference title and a No.1 seed in next month’s NCAA tournament. Michigan is 17-1 overall and 12-1 in the league.
Saturday’s game will switch at noon ET on FOX with Gus Johnson and Bill Raftery on call:
On the morning of Feb. 18, Indiana was 12-9 overall, 7-7 in the Big Ten, and its path to an NCAA tournament spot for the first time since 2016 looked manageable. The Hoosiers had just decisively dealt with Minnesota the night before, 82-72, and had Michigan State a few days later in Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.
Fast forwarding the schedule just a week later and Indiana’s chances of saving a once-looking promising season are grim. After a 78-71 home loss to the Spartans last week – a game in which it led by 13 in the first half – Indiana collapsed again on Wednesday night at Piscataway. The Hoosiers led the Scarlet Knights 23-8 in the first half and ended up losing 74-63 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score might have you believe.
Now Indiana is firmly against the wall as it ends the season with a brutal streak of games: Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue. Without a win or two in that streak, Indiana will need a deep run in the Big Ten tournament just to get back into the tournament conversation. The toughest of the last three games is first when Michigan arrives at Bloomington on Saturday. Led by second-year head coach Juwan Howard, the Wolverines have a chance to challenge Gonzaga and Baylor for the No.1 seed in next month’s tournament.
MEET THE WOLVERINES
Michigan were selected to finish sixth in the conference in the preseason, but they are clearly the best team in the conference with less than three weeks left before the selection on Sunday. The Wolverines are balanced and have the best defense and third best offense in the Big Ten that don’t depend on a single player to carry the load like the Hoosiers.
In the frontcourt, Michigan is led by Big Ten favorite of the year Hunter Dickinson, second year Franz Wagner and senior Isaiah Livers, who could be one of the country’s most underrated players.
Dickinson, one of DeMatha Catholic’s top 50 rookies, picked Michigan over Duke in what turns out to be a critical recruiting victory for Howard. Dickinson sits third in KenPom’s National Player of the Year ranking and has a team-high of 14.9 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. The 7-foot-1 center won’t be a lottery pick, but he’s a very efficient post-goalscorer who is basically solid with his post moves and footwork. At 255 pounds, Dickinson is a load to manage when he gets the ball in the back of the post and finishes 64.1% of his 2 this season.
Wagner started the season slowly but is a two-way street player with an NBA future. He is third on the team with a score of 12.9 points per game and has been super efficient offensively. In the Big Ten game, Wagner is doing 39.6% of his 3s and 61.5% of his 2. At 6ft 9in and 220lbs with some guarding skills, it’s not hard to see a bright future in the game. next level for Wagner starting next season.
Livers, who was drafted by John Beilein, has considered an early departure for the NBA. But the all-round wing returned to Ann Arbor for its senior campaign and now has a legitimate chance at winning a national championship. Livers is a 44.8% 3-point shooter this season and has the seventh best offensive rating of any Big Ten player in the league. At 6ft 7in, Livers is a tough cover as he can draw bigger players to the perimeter and can easily end up on smaller defenders in the paint and on the rim.
Michigan backcourt anchored by transfer of Columbia graduates Mike smith and senior Eli brooks, one of the best perimeter defenders in the country. Smith is fifth in the Big Ten in assists (28%) and leads the Wolverines with 5.3 assists per game. It shoots 46.5% over 3s. Brooks connects at a rate of 36.8% of league distance and is fourth on the team with a score of 8.9 points per game.
Michigan’s rotation only includes three bench regulars in Wake Forest transfer Chaundee Brownsenior red shirt Austin davis and junior Brandon johns jr. Brown, a 6-foot-5 guard, is the main name of the trio. He is a serious, physical defender who provides major energy off the bench. Brown is also a capable shooter who takes down 3s at a 41.9% clip.
OVERVIEW AND KEYS TO THE NON-TEMPO GAME
• Can Indiana defend itself at a reasonable level? The Hoosiers haven’t defended well for a majority of the Big Ten season and have fallen apart in their last two games against Michigan State and Rutgers. Michigan is experienced, balanced and will force teams to pay for their mistakes defensively. If Indiana isn’t much sharper than it has been in recent games, the Hoosiers are unlikely to stick with one of the best teams in the country.
• How will Michigan attack Indiana? Last season’s game in Ann Arbor saw Zavier Simpson set up a clinic against the Hoosiers off the ball. Michigan can still go that route with Smith leading the attack, but also love coming in to Dickinson’s post. Indiana will need to be prepared for both scenarios and be prepared to adapt on the fly.
• Will the Hoosiers be able to reach the free throw line? Indiana’s main strength on offense is reaching the foul line and Michigan are the best team in the Big Ten to keep their opponents out of the line. Something will have to give way in this game and if the Hoosiers can’t find a way to get to the line, points might be hard to come by against the Big Ten’s stingiest defense.
WHAT IS IT ABOUT
The KenPom projection is Michigan by eight with just 25% for a win in Indiana. That might seem a bit high depending on how both teams play at the start of Saturday’s game. The Wolverines have beaten Wisconsin, Rutgers, Ohio State and Iowa since leaving a COVID-19 hiatus that covered the entire Michigan sports department. Michigan has won six consecutive games in total.
Indiana, meanwhile, have lost back-to-back games and appear to be crating rather than peaking as the regular season draws to a close. The Hoosiers are yet to be excluded from the NCAA tournament, but that could quickly become a reality if they can’t win two of their last three games.
(Photo credit: UMHoops.com)
Filed at: Michigan Wolverines
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