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"A few years ago, I was on [visiting Arianespace in France and they] were not worried [United Launch Alliance but asked] could I get rid of SpaceX, because they were going to chase them out of their stuff? " – Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.)
In 2015, at a hearing of the House of Armed Forces Committee on the cost of a spaceflight, Loretta Sanchez, a member of Congress of the time, had some laughter with this message, but four years later no one laughs in Europe. The Court of Auditors (CDC), the independent auditor of the French accounts, has just indicated that the use of reusable rockets by Elon Musk to reduce launch costs in the space represents a very real risk of chasing Ariane out of the space sector.
The French Ariane builds beautiful rockets – but can they compete with SpaceX in terms of price? Source of the image: ArianeSpace.
How do you say "we lose the race to space" in French?
For several years, the French space launch company Arianespace, a subsidiary of Airbus (NASDAQOTH: EADSY), had trouble competing with SpaceX in the market for commercial rocket launches. The problem is this: your Ariane launch costs an average of $ 200 million, while SpaceX famously announces the Falcon 9 rides for only $ 62 million.
Obviously, it is difficult for Ariane to compete with such low prices. So, to improve its competitive positioning, Ariane has spent the last few years developing a new family of rockets, nicknamed "Ariane 6 ". Its goal is to reduce Ariane's average launch cost to approximately $ 77 million (for a payload capacity similar to that of Falcon 9) or $ 126 million (for a result closer to the SpaceX Falcon Heavy transport).
It seems like a good idea. But, as indicated by the French CDC, Ariane 6 is perhaps too small and too late.
Slow and stable loses the race
In a "volume" of 31 pages incorporated in his 2019 annual public reportCDC notes that Ariane "lost its global leadership in the commercial market to US SpaceX" in 2017. CDC directly links this loss to SpaceX's "revolutionary reusable rocket model" and "lack of confidence in # 39; Ariane "in the concept of reusable rockets – and build them.
Indeed, the verification chamber is particularly critical of Ariane's decision to make the Ariane 6 consumable, rather than reusable, like SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. The French CNES may be "studying" a reusable "Prometheus" engine and developing a prototype "Callisto" reusable rocket, but little progress has been made on both fronts. Meanwhile, SpaceX already has its operational and Falcon flight missions. Unlike the Ariane 6, all of which will have to be discarded once used, SpaceX Block 5 Falcon 9 rockets are designed to be reused up to ten times.
According to CDC, Ariane's "cautious" approach could prove "non-competitive … in the long run". On the contrary, CDC thinks that Ariane will ultimately have to "evolve Ariane 6 towards reusability", at the cost of "additional financing". All that Ariane did with her early efforts was therefore a waste of time.
And since we do not expect Ariane 6 to be usable before 2020, Ariane must not waste time. By the time Ariane 6 begins to fly, SpaceX may have further refined its reusable rocket designs, adapted its business model to take full advantage of the benefits of reuse, and further lowered its prices, making any cost reduction possible. Ariane 6 theoretical.
Why did Ariane choose this theoretical route?
Perhaps the saddest part of all this is that Arianespace knew exactly what she was doing when she chose to develop the Ariane 6 as an expendable rocket. He did it on purpose.
We know it because, in an interview with Germany Der Spiegel Alain Charmeau, CEO of ArianeGroup last year (ArianeGroup is the parent company of ArianeSpace).
Describing Ariane's screaming need to guarantee "guaranteed launches" from its government sponsors to generate cash flow to finance its overhead costs, Charmeau said that European governments should buy their Ariane space launches instead of selling them. At SpaceX, whatever their price. They should do that, said Charmeau, not only to ensure Europe a reliable space program (although it certainly was a goal), but because when Germany buys space launches at Ariane, " it creates jobs in Germany "(remember, this was an interview with a German magazine).
In addition, Ariane has chosen to build many expendable rockets instead of some reusable rockets that could be used many times. As Charmeau explained: "Let's say we have ten guaranteed launches a year in Europe and have a rocket that you can reuse ten times, so we would build exactly one rocket a year." No sense I can not say my teams: "Goodbye, next year" after building only one rocket!
Instead, Ariane builds a lot of rockets and thus provides its workers with job security.
An epitaph for Ariane
But here is the great tragedy of Ariane: trying to get full employment for its workers, Charmeau may have condemned his company. ArianeSpace, which plans to build its own reusable rocket, is betting its future on a consumable Ariane 6 that it will now need to upgrade and convert to a new reusable Ariane 6. As the CDC says: "This new launcher [in its current form] be a sustainable response to compete in a stagnant commercial market. "
Unless it allows reuse, and soon, it means that Ariane itself may not be able to compete with cheaper, more efficient, more efficient and more economical solutions. Advanced rocket launchers such as SpaceX (and soon Blue Origin too). Ariane workers are at risk of losing their jobs.
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