Europe begins to panic over dominance of SpaceX launch

A little over a week ago, the European Space Agency announced an initiative to study “future space transportation solutions”. Basically, the agency provided around $ 600,000, each, to three companies – ArianeGroup, Avio, and Rocket Factory Augsburg – to study competitive launch systems starting in 2030.

This initiative would allow Europe to understand and prepare for the future of space launch, said Daniel Neuenschwander, director of space transportation for the space agency. It “lays the foundations that allow us to prepare for the future beyond Ariane 6 and Vega-C,” he said. “These system concept studies will include services that prioritize the future needs of European space programs, but also allow us to meet the needs of the global market.”

The implication is that the next generation of European rockets, the larger Ariane 6 thruster and the smaller Vega-C, will meet the continent’s launch needs for the next decade. These two new rockets, from an earlier generation of boosters, are expected to debut within the next 12-18 months.

However, there now appears to be growing concern in Europe that the Ariane 6 and Vega-C rockets Will not do be competitive in the launch market of the near future. This is important, because if European Union member states pay for rocket development, after reaching operational status, these launch programs should become self-sufficient by attracting commercial satellite launches to help pay the bills.

The economy ministers of France and Italy have now concluded that the launch market has changed dramatically since 2014, when the Ariane 6 and Vega-C rockets were first designed. According to a report in Le Figaro newspaper, ministers believe that the ability of these new European rockets to compete for commercial launch contracts has deteriorated considerably since then.

The main cause? SpaceX. With its reusable and inexpensive Falcon 9 rocket, SpaceX was able to reduce the prices of large commercial satellites that could be inflated by the Ariane 6. While European Ariane vehicles once played a dominant role in launching geostationary satellites, they have lost considerable market share since 2014. Additionally, through its carpooling program for the Falcon 9, SpaceX is also threatening to withdraw missions from Vega-C, which has a lifting capacity of around 1.5 tonnes to the ‘polar orbit.

As the newspaper reports, Europe is now behind SpaceX in other ways. Thanks to its partnership with NASA, SpaceX can now launch astronauts. French astronaut Thomas Pesquet, in fact, is a specialist on the Crew-2 mission set to launch next month. He will likely be the first of many European astronauts to reach space aboard a SpaceX vehicle. Europe also currently has no response to the Starlink mega-constellation that SpaceX is launching – either in the ability to build hundreds of satellites a year or bring them into orbit affordably.

For this reason, the French and Italian ministers call on Europe to offer a significant “technological and industrial” response to the rise of SpaceX. It is not known what form this would take, nor how quickly European nations might react.

Moreover, any initiative will be complicated by politics. The Ariane program has roots in France, while Vega is from Italy. Germany, without a history of its own rockets during the European Union era, nevertheless has several promising small launch companies, including Rocket Factory Augsburg, and it may seek to foster private competition rather than financially support an approach. institutional.