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The planet could have a year or less before first-generation Covid-19 vaccines are ineffective and modified formulations are needed, according to a survey of epidemiologists, virologists and infectious disease specialists.
Scientists have long emphasized that a global vaccination effort is needed to satisfactorily neutralize the threat of Covid-19. This is due to the threat of variations in the virus – some more transmissible, deadly, and less susceptible to vaccines – that emerge and percolate.
The grim forecast of one year or less comes from two-thirds of respondents, according to the People’s Vaccine Alliance, a coalition of organizations including Amnesty International, Oxfam and UNAIDS, which surveyed 77 scientists from 28 countries. Almost a third of respondents indicated that the delay was probably nine months or less.
Persistent low immunization coverage in many countries would make the emergence of vaccine-resistant mutations more likely, said 88% of respondents, who work at illustrious institutions such as Johns Hopkins, Yale, Imperial College, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the University of Edinburgh.
“New changes are happening every day. Sometimes they find a niche that makes them more apt than their predecessors. These lucky variants could more efficiently transmit and potentially evade immune responses to previous strains, ”Gregg Gonsalves, associate professor of epidemiology at Yale University, said in a statement.
“Unless we vaccinate the world, we are leaving the playing field open to more and more mutations, which could produce variants that could escape our current vaccines and require booster shots to cope.”
The current crop of vaccines that have received emergency clearances in different parts of the world is a mix of old and new technologies.
Of particular interest is the mRNA approach, used by the companies Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna, which can be changed quickly (over a matter of weeks or months) to accommodate new variants – however, manufacturing hiccups are always a problem. potential problem.
More importantly, they are unlikely to be within reach of the poorest countries, since this set of vaccines is much more expensive and requires relatively high temperature storage conditions.
Meanwhile, resource-rich countries like the UK and US have administered at least one dose of vaccine to more than a quarter of their populations and have secured hundreds of millions of supplies. In contrast, countries like South Africa and Thailand have failed to even get bullets in the arms of 1% of their population. Some countries have not yet administered their first dose.
Covax – the Global Vaccine Initiative coalition aimed at countering so-called vaccine nationalism – hopes to be able to deliver vaccines to at least 27% of the population in low-income countries by 2021.
“The urgency we see in rich countries to vaccinate their populations, targeting all adults by the summer, is simply not being reflected globally. Instead, Covax is aiming for maybe 27% by the end of the year if we can manage it – it’s just not enough, ”said Max Lawson, head of inequality policy at Oxfam and chairman of the People’s Vaccine Alliance, which calls on Covid-19 vaccine developers to openly share their technology and intellectual property to boost production.
“Where is the ambitious global goal? A goal that science tells us is necessary? I think that’s the key point – we just don’t see the ambition that would come with it, the widespread recognition that limited vaccination is quite dangerous.
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