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The nation’s highest public health authority has warned of “looming catastrophe” for the United States, and President Biden urged states to reinstate mask warrants on Monday, as signs of a fourth wave pandemics are increasing and even the Bay Area is in danger.
Nationwide, coronavirus cases have climbed 10% over the past week, to about 60,000 a day, said Dr Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Hospitalizations for COVID-19 are also increasing.
The tide may also rise in the Bay Area, where cases have leveled off in recent days. “The curve has flattened out, but it’s a curve you don’t want to see flattened,” Marin County health official Dr. Matt Willis said in an interview Monday. Willis said he was concerned that a lull like the one that happened between the summer and winter waves could happen again now.
Napa County officials said they could not upgrade to the least restrictive Orange level in the state’s reopening structure as planned on Tuesday, after infections in the county rose slightly. As late as Friday, they said the trends were favorable for the county to go orange.
Public health experts say it’s too early to predict whether the United States faces an inevitable fourth outbreak, and whether there is another spike in cases, whether the Bay Area will be able to push back with an aggressive campaign of vaccinations and protective behaviors like wearing masks and avoiding social gatherings.
Dueling forces are at play. Variants that are more infectious and lead to faster spread of the disease have implantations in large swathes of the country, including the Bay Area, where variants high in California are presumed. constitute the majority of cases. But vaccination efforts are accelerating rapidly, potentially reducing the number of people susceptible to contracting the disease by the millions every day in the United States.
Behavior is a third factor. As the economy opens up – nationally and locally – people interact more and take fewer precautions. Public health experts say travel and large gatherings are of particular concern, especially with so many young people partying over spring break.
They are also concerned that families and friends are getting together for Passover and Easter. The past holiday gatherings have been the main drivers of new waves of cases.
“We have so much to look forward to, so much promise and potential from where we are at, and so much to hope for. But right now I’m scared, “Walensky said in a White House briefing in which she reflected on a” recurring sense of impending doom “for weeks to come.
At the meeting, Biden pleaded with governors and local leaders to maintain or re-impose mask warrants, after a dozen states abandoned them when cases began to plummet. “Please, this is not politics,” he said. “Failure to take this virus seriously, which is precisely what got us into this mess in the first place, risks more cases and deaths.
“As I do my part to speed up vaccine delivery … I need the American people to do their part as well,” Biden said. “Hide yourself. Hide yourself. It is patriotic duty. This is the only way to get back to normal.
Cases in the Bay Area and California declined slightly last week from the previous week, but have leveled off or increased in the past few days. The Bay Area reported an average of 416 cases per day for the week ending Sunday, which is on par with cases last October, during what, in hindsight, was a clear low between summer and winter flare-ups.
Willis said that although half of adults in Marin County have received at least one dose of the vaccine, that still leaves a large group of people susceptible to infection. And he’s seen residents of the county relax their protective behaviors, especially at social gatherings.
County officials said they were eager to open vaccinations to all arrivals on April 15, although many say they continue to have concerns about the supply. In the meantime, they fear that young people who will not be eligible for vaccines for another two and a half weeks are also more likely to abandon social distancing practices.
“There are enough (susceptible) people to fuel more epidemics,” Willis said. But he added that with vaccinations so far focused on the elderly and others more vulnerable to serious illness and death, the Bay Area is unlikely to see an associated spike in hospitalizations and deaths. , although cases are climbing again.
Dr Art Reingold, an infectious disease expert at UC Berkeley, echoed this assessment, although he said there is no guarantee yet that deaths and hospitalizations will remain low even if cases increase during a fourth push.
The next few weeks will likely be the first large-scale real-world vaccine test in the United States, he said, assuming heads of state and local people continue to reopen the economy and individuals do not do not improve their behavior.
“If in fact it’s mostly young people who throw spring break parties who get infected and a lot of older people get vaccinated, we might see an increase in cases without seeing a huge increase in hospitalizations or deaths,” did he declare. “We will find out in a few weeks.”
Another fear is that a fourth outbreak in California would, once again, have a disproportionate impact on communities of color, said Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, associate dean of population health and equity. in health at UCSF. California has one of the worst rates in the country to date for vaccine equity, which means vulnerable and hard-hit communities do not yet have equitable access.
If there is another surge, those communities will likely bear the brunt of it, while the wealthier and more privileged parts of the state are protected by vaccines.
“The whole of the central valley is under-vaccinated now. And there are deep pockets of under-vaccination in the Bay Area, ”Bibbins-Domingo said. “This story throughout the pandemic continues to be so now.”
Chronicle editor Sarah Ravani contributed to this report.
Erin Allday is a writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] Twitter: @erinallday
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