What to know about recent COVID-19 trends in Massachusetts

Coronavirus

“These numbers show the reason for getting vaccinated. “

For the first time in months, COVID-19 trends in Massachusetts appear to be going, even slightly, in the wrong direction.

Infections and even hospitalizations from COVID-19 have started to increase since the weekend of July 4. And it turns out that people vaccinated against the disease are not fully immune, as state officials have revealed that there have been thousands of groundbreaking infections – and even dozens of deaths – among the people. who have been vaccinated since the start of deployment.

But how alarming is this recent news?

Experts and health officials point out that the number of breakthrough infections is incredibly low – and somewhat expected – given the sheer volume of people vaccinated in Massachusetts.

And while the slight increase in cases comes as the Delta variant has fueled spikes across the country, especially in under-vaccinated states, COVID-19 rates in Massachusetts so far remain nowhere, even approaching their previous peaks.

This is what we know:

About these revolutionary cases

The reality is that revolutionary infections do occur, but they are incredibly rare. And cases in which vaccinated people are hospitalized or even die from COVID-19 are even rarer.

As of July 10, 4,450 people vaccinated in Massachusetts had tested positive for COVID-19 since the deployment began last winter, according to the state’s Department of Public Health.

That’s just over 0.1 percent – or one in a thousand – of the 4,195,844 people in Massachusetts who were fully vaccinated at the time.

Of this small faction, the overwhelming majority of cases were not serious.

DPH officials say 303 – or 6.8% – of breakthrough infections involved hospitalization, and a total of 79 people vaccinated in Massachusetts have died.

In other words, the most recent data shows that 0.007% – or seven in 100,000 – of fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts have been hospitalized. Likewise, less than two in 100,000 people have died.

For comparison, there have been a total of 5,057 deaths from COVID-19 in Massachusetts since early January; 4,986 of these were unvaccinated people.

“These numbers show the reason for getting vaccinated,” said Todd Ellerin, director of infectious diseases at South Shore Health. Boston Herald this week.

“It’s amazing actually,” Ellerin said. “It’s mind-blowing.”

State officials echo this sentiment. Given the high vaccination rates in Massachusetts, DPH says they expect to see groundbreaking cases because the three COVID-19 vaccines authorized in the United States – Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson – are not everything quite 100% effective against infection prevention, even though they are very effective.

“I think this is really what we’re expecting,” Tufts epidemiologist Dr Shira Doron told WCVB. “When you have a highly vaccinated population, you’re going to see a lot more cases in people who are vaccinated. “

State officials emphasize that vaccines are the best protection against COVID-19.

The proof lies in the state’s overall COVID-19 rates, which have fallen dramatically since the start of the year, when the vaccine rollout began, even though almost all restrictions have been lifted. Hospitalizations are down 96% since early January; deaths from COVID-19, which averaged over 70 per day, have fallen to less than one per day.

“These results provide even more evidence that vaccines are excellent, not just good, at preventing serious illness and death,” said Dr Howard Koh, professor at the Chan School of Public Health at Harvard and former commissioner of Massachusetts health. The Boston Globe.

“We need to step up the vaccination momentum in the future, especially in light of the growing national threats from the Delta variant,” Koh added.

An unexpected increase in all cases

Groundbreaking infections may have been expected, but Massachusetts is also seeing an unexpected increase in overall COVID-19 rates over the past week.

Since June 25, the average number of new positive COVID-19 tests in the state has nearly doubled from 64 to 122. DPH officials also reported 208 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Wednesday, the first report on only one day of more than 200 since the beginning of June. , a time when the state’s test rate was almost a third higher.

During the same period, the state’s positivity rate more than doubled, from 0.31% to 0.72%.

After a steady decline this spring, hospitalizations also fell from a low of 80 COVID-19 patients statewide on July 4 to 102 on Tuesday. Deaths have continued to drop to less than one per day on average, although experts have long said that deaths lag behind other indicators.

All rates remain very low – lower than they have ever been through all the ups and downs of the pandemic from March 2020 to last May – but the trends appear similar to the national rise fueled by the Delta variant. since early July.

It’s unclear to what extent the recent increase in Massachusetts was caused by the Delta variant, which officials say is the most contagious iteration of the virus to date.

Nationally, it has gone from just 3% of new cases in mid-May to more than 31% of new cases in mid-June, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. According to the CDC, the Delta accounted for 10% of new cases in Massachusetts as of June 22, but that data is now almost a month old – and predates the current rise.

Cassandra Pierre, epidemiologist at Boston Medical Center and professor at Boston University, said the recent increase in the total number of cases was “somewhat concerning” given the nationwide rise of the Delta variant.

“We have data to show that the delta variant is responsible for more hospitalizations than the previous dominant variant and although the jury is out on whether it is also more virulent (capable of causing serious illness), we have started to see of COVID-related deaths rates are rising in some of the hardest-hit states, ”Pierre said in Boston in an email.

“All this to say that we always need to closely monitor the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths among different ages, races and ethnicities (especially in under-vaccinated communities) to make sure we are not surprised by a small spike this summer, ”she said.

While experts have predicted a slight seasonal increase in COVID-19 cases this fall, Pierre says the recent increase is earlier than expected. She noted that the rainy weather over the July 4 weekend may have pushed more gatherings and activities inside.

DPH guidelines say unvaccinated residents should continue to wear masks near people outside their homes, especially indoors. While the Delta variant has caused some cities and organizations to extend this mask advice to all individuals, regardless of vaccination status, the still low case rates have yet to prompt such a move in Massachusetts.

State officials say they don’t have a breakdown of recent infections among those vaccinated and unvaccinated, in part because data on breakthrough cases is reported separately (while healthcare providers report all positive tests directly to the state, breakthrough cases are reported first to the CDC and then to state officials).

However, previous data on breakthrough infection obtained by the Herald through a public record request suggests there were 543 breakthrough cases between June 19 and July 10. This represents about 30 percent of the 1,809 positive cases reported by the state during the same period, meaning that 70 percent of the new cases were among the minority of residents who were not fully immunized.

While more than 83 percent of Massachusetts adults have received at least one injection, vaccination rates still hover around 50 percent for black and Latino residents, as well as in many low-income communities.

Pierre notes that even in Boston’s most under-vaccinated communities, rates of positive tests for COVID-19 remain around 1%. Still, those gaps are concerning, Pierre said, as she has seen hospitalizations shift to young people between the ages of 20 and 40 and an increased percentage of that group with severe symptoms.

“Given the significant racial disparity in immunization in our patient population, this indicates that young people of color will carry the brunt of the infection as COVID slowly becomes endemic in our communities,” she said.