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New research has found that double-vaccinated people were three times less likely than unvaccinated people to test positive for the coronavirus.
These results from the REACT-1 study led by Imperial, a major coronavirus surveillance program, are based on swab tests performed by nearly 100,000 people in England between June 24 and July 12. During this period 0.63% of people were infected, or 1 in 158. This represents a four-fold increase from the previous study report, where 0.15% or 1 in 670 had the virus in their midst. June 7.
“These results confirm our previous data showing that two doses of a vaccine offer good protection against infection.” Prof. Paul Elliott School of Public Health, Imperial
The number of infections was similar at the beginning of October 2020 and the end of January 2021, doubling every 25 days with an R number of 1.19. The R-number was lower than the previous cycle (1.44) and the interim study report released on July 8 (1.87), which looked at the first 47,000 swabs taken for that cycle of testing. This suggests that the growth rate slowed down at the end of the study period.
Analyzes from the study of PCR test results also suggest that fully vaccinated people may be less likely than unvaccinated people to pass the virus on to others, due to a lower viral load on average and therefore likely. less virus elimination.
Professor Paul Elliott, REACT program director at Imperial’s School of Public Health, said: “These results confirm our previous data showing that two doses of a vaccine provide good protection against infection. However, we can also see that there is always a risk of infection, as no vaccine is 100% effective, and we know that some people who are doubly vaccinated can still get sick from the virus.
“So even with the easing of restrictions, we must still act with caution to protect each other and reduce the rate of infections.”
These results from the ongoing Real-Time Community Transmission Assessment Program (REACT-1), led by Imperial and carried out in partnership with Ipsos MORI, are available here in a pre-printed report and will be subject to review by the peers. Data is continuously communicated to government to inform decision making.
Infections in people vaccinated
For this latest round of the REACT study, 98,233 people swab at home and their samples were analyzed by PCR. 527 of them were positive, for an overall prevalence of 0.63%. 254 of them were successfully analyzed in the laboratory to determine their origins, 100% of which were the Delta variant. In the previous round, the figure was just under 80% for Delta with the Alpha remaining.
“We need to better understand how infectious fully vaccinated people who become infected are. “ Professor Steven Riley School of Public Health
Unvaccinated people had a prevalence three times higher than those who received two doses of a vaccine, at 1.21% versus 0.40%. However, these two elements represent more than a five-fold increase from the previous cycle (0.24%, 0.07%, respectively). Based on this data, the researchers estimate that people fully vaccinated in this series of tests had an approximately 50% to 60% reduced risk of infection, including asymptomatic infection, compared to unvaccinated people.
Additionally, double-vaccinated people were less likely than unvaccinated people to test positive after coming into contact with someone with COVID-19 (3.84% vs. 7.23%).
Professor Steven Riley, Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics at Imperial, said: “The Delta variant is known to be highly infectious, and therefore we can see from our data and others that breakthrough infections occur in fully vaccinated people. We need to better understand how infectious fully vaccinated people are, as this will help better predict the situation in the months to come, and our findings contribute to a more complete picture of that. “
Trends in coronavirus infections
Infections have increased dramatically in all parts of the country, with the highest prevalence found in London at 0.94%, up from 0.13% in the previous cycle. However, there were signs that the growth rate was starting to slow in London, although there were uncertainties in the data.
“The vaccines are safe and they work.” Sajid Javid Health and Social Affairs Secretary
Data from previous studies have shown that the link between infections, hospitalizations and deaths has weakened since February. However, since mid-April, researchers have found that the trends between infections and hospitalizations are approaching again, although to a lesser extent for deaths. This could reflect the shift from Alpha to Delta and a shifting mix (towards younger, unvaccinated people) of hospitalized cases.
Health and Social Affairs Secretary Sajid Javid said: “Our vaccination deployment is building a wall of defense which means we can carefully loosen restrictions and get back to the things we love, but we have to be careful while we are learning to live with this virus.
“Today’s report shows the importance of taking personal responsibility by isolating yourself if you are contacted, getting tested for symptoms and wearing face coverings where appropriate.
“I urge anyone who has not yet received a vaccine to get bitten and take both doses – the vaccines are safe and they work.”
Other key findings include:
- The highest prevalence of infection was observed in young people aged 13 to 24 at 1.56%, or 1 in 65 people infected, while the lowest was in people aged 75 and over at 0.17%.
- Women had a lower risk of testing positive than men (0.55% vs. 0.71%)
- People who identify as black had a higher risk of infection than white people (1.21% vs. 0.59%)
- Those living in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods have a higher risk of infection than those in the poorest neighborhoods (0.82% vs. 0.48%)
“My message to all those who have not yet been vaccinated is to come forward, to protect yourself, your family and your community.” Nadhim Zahawe Minister of Vaccines
Vaccine Deployment Minister Nadhim Zahawi said: “Today’s results show the positive impact of the vaccination program with those who are doubly vaccinated three times less likely than unvaccinated people to contract the virus and less likely to transmit this terrible disease to those around them.
“We must continue our phenomenal progress – my message to all those who have not yet been vaccinated is to come forward, to protect yourself, your family and your community.”
Kelly Beaver, Managing Director of Public Affairs at Ipsos MORI, said: “Today’s results are a stark reminder of the importance of getting vaccinated against COVID-19, with unvaccinated people three times more likely to test positive in that cycle than those who are fully vaccinated. . This is underscored by indications in this report that fully vaccinated people are less likely to pass the virus on to others, an important development for understanding how we can defeat the virus. “
Download the preprint report here
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