Counties in central and western Maine surrounded by areas of high COVID-19 transmission

While COVID-19 transmission rates in Androscoggin, Franklin and Oxford counties remained below the threshold at which masks are recommended for all people, all but one of neighboring counties recorded substantial levels of community spread Wednesday.

State health officials on Wednesday reported four new cases of COVID-19 in Androscoggin County and three each in Franklin and Oxford counties. A total of 126 new cases have been reported statewide and there have been no additional deaths.

Cumberland, Kennebec, Somerset and York counties all had substantial rates of community transmission. Sagadahoc County was the only neighboring county with a low transmission rate.

Maine last week passed guidelines from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that universal indoor masking is recommended in areas with high or high transmission rates.

The best way to stop community transmission is with vaccination, public health experts have said.

In Androscoggin, Franklin and Oxford counties, the seven-day average of daily new cases per capita on Wednesday was higher than a week and a month ago. It was the same for the state average.

Joanne Kenny-Lynch, director of the infection prevention system at Central Maine Healthcare, said earlier this week that higher vaccination rates mean the virus has fewer opportunities to mutate.

“Viruses have one goal, and that is really to survive,” she said. “And the more we give the virus a chance to replicate in our communities and our environment, the more likely we are to see different mutations or different variants. “

Just under 70% of all eligible Mainers are fully vaccinated against COVID-19. In Androscoggin, Franklin and Oxford counties, the vaccination rate among eligible residents ranged from 58% to 62%.

The delta variant is more contagious than the original strain of the COVID-19 virus, but Kenny-Lynch warned that “the next variant could be more resistant to vaccines, or it could cause a different problem.”

CDC officials said the vaccines available are very effective in preventing infection, including against the delta variant. Even in rare “breakthrough cases”, those vaccinated rarely suffer from a serious illness requiring hospitalization or die from the illness.

In Maine, the majority of vaccinated people who were hospitalized or died from COVID-19 – a small fraction of the total vaccinated in the state – had pre-existing conditions or were receiving end-of-life care, a carrier. Maine CDC’s word said last week.

“The big chunk is getting vaccinated to reduce the number of people infected in our communities and stop this virus from mutating,” Kenny-Lynch said.

“I’m not sure everyone has this full concept that, yes, we have to protect ourselves and everyone,” she said. “But if this thing keeps spreading, we’re going to see some other really great variations potentially coming out.”

Transmission rates in the community are one way to “predict” where the virus is spreading, said Dr. Dora Anne Mills, MaineHealth’s health improvement manager, on Tuesday.

The US CDC uses two metrics to determine whether a county has low, moderate, substantial, or high levels of community transmission: the total number of new cases per 100,000 people in the past seven days and the test positivity rate.

Mills said that in rural areas, the denominator, which is the total population, “is statistically small enough that even small variations in the disease,” like a few new cases, can “take this county from low to high.” .

Maine CDC director Dr Nirav Shah called the situation in Maine “the law of small numbers,” on Monday’s “Maine Calling” broadcast on Maine Public.

He said he recognized that this system was “fooling” people and that it was “not easy to keep up” with daily changes.

“We are now looking at that we have five days of experience with how the US CDC tracks these things,” he said. “We are reviewing to see if this is exactly the right approach for Maine.”

Still, Mills said the methodology is “excellent” and with the spread of the delta variant, “you better err on the side of caution and make the system more responsive.”

She likened it to checking the weather forecast for the chance of rain, “where you look at the weather forecast in the morning and decide if you’re going to wear a raincoat and take an umbrella with you,” said Mills, who served as Director of Maine CDC for over 14 years.

The vaccine, like a raincoat, is the first level of protection. “Then, masking, distancing, ventilation” – like an umbrella, rain boots and other water-resistant gear – these are the “other three major layers of protection”.

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