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As the pandemic has continued, the idea of the world shutting down the SARS-CoV-2 virus completely and coming back to pre-pandemic life increasingly sounds like a pipe dream.
With uneven vaccination deployments, dangerous new variants, and a “normal” that still looks distinctly dystopian, the idea that one day we’ll be rid of COVID-19 seems like wishful thinking, if not crazy.
But a new analysis from New Zealand scientists suggests we shouldn’t give up hope just yet. In a meta-analysis of previous studies and looking at comparisons to smallpox and polio, the team suggests that eradication might still be possible, although it would not be easy.
“Is COVID-19 also potentially eradicated? Or is it inevitably endemic having established itself across the world? Write the researchers.
“While our analysis is a preliminary effort, with various subjective components, it appears to put COVID-19 eradication within the realms of possibility, particularly in terms of technical feasibility.”
Although globally SARS-CoV-2 is trying very hard to stay, on a small scale some places have been successful in eliminating the virus – even without vaccination.
Large nations like China, Hong Kong and smaller ones like Iceland and New Zealand have managed to temporarily wipe out the virus before vaccines are released, using border controls, wearing masks, physical distancing , testing and contact tracing.
In addition, we have already succeeded in completely eradicating at least one human disease before – smallpox. Humans lived alongside smallpox for 3,000 years before a massive global vaccination campaign eradicated it in the 1970s.
Polio is another success story of vaccination and (almost) eradication. Two of the three poliovirus serotypes have been eradicated worldwide, and cases of wild poliovirus decreased by 99% between 1988 and 2018.
So, can we do the same with COVID-19? In the study, the team created a three-point scoring system for 17 elimination variables, such as availability of a safe and effective vaccine, lifespan of immunity, impact of measures health and effective government management of infection control messages.
Looking at these variables, they found that COVID-19 scored 28 out of 51 points, compared to polio which scored 26 out of 51. This means that for all of these variables we are not looking for a perfect score, but we have many elements that we need to be able to consider eradication as feasible.
“In this very preliminary analysis, eradicating COVID-19 seems slightly more achievable than for polio, but much less than for smallpox,” the team concludes.
This means that the goal of eradication would be much more difficult than it was for smallpox, but it is not completely impossible.
The team explains that there are certainly technical challenges in eradicating COVID-19 that have not taken polio and smallpox so much into account. For example, reluctance to vaccinate and the rapid evolution of viral variants that may overtake global immunization programs.
There are also the high costs of implementing vaccination programs and modernizing health care systems, as well as wild (or domesticated) animals serving as a reservoir into which the virus could mutate further.
However, trying to eradicate COVID-19 also has some benefits, even if we don’t get it through to the end.
“Upgrading health systems to facilitate eradication of COVID-19 could also have important co-benefits in controlling other diseases (and even eradicating measles),” the team writes.
“Collectively, these factors could mean that an ‘expected value’ analysis might ultimately estimate that the benefits outweigh the costs, even if eradication takes many years and carries a significant risk of failure. “
The research was published in BMJ Global Health.
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