Forget to beat Covid-19. Europe is preparing to live with it.

© Sean Gallup / Zuma Press

The battle against Covid-19 is shifting into long-term, low-intensity mode in Europe, as countries like Germany, Italy and France shift from researching to end the pandemic to preparing to live with it .

Governments are developing plans for recall campaigns, mask wear, frequent testing and limited social distancing measures to control the virus before the region’s third pandemic winter.

They are helped by a public which has shown itself to be relatively tolerant of social obstacles. Unlike the United States, where some states were quick to drop restrictions amid optimism that the virus was receding, the pandemic was never fully expected to be over in Europe, where infections have spiked. increased sporadically in spring and summer.

Germany, which has never fully lifted pandemic restrictions, said this week that only people who have been vaccinated, those who have recovered from an infection or people with a recent negative Covid-19 test could make it to the restaurants, hospitals and other indoor places unless infections fall below a very low level. Masks will remain compulsory in confined spaces and on public transport indefinitely, even for vaccinated persons.

In Berlin, where the school year started in August, children are required to wear masks in all school premises and are tested for infections several times a week. This week, the government wrote to families of children eligible for the Covid-19 vaccine urging them to get vaccinated.

Countries like France and Italy are also increasingly making vaccination, a recent recovery from illness or a recent negative test a prerequisite for daily activities. French restaurateurs who do not screen customers face fines of up to 9,000 euros, or about $ 10,600, and one year in prison.

In the United States, some cities and states like California recently announced similar restrictions.

Vaccines have turned the tide against serious illness and death, but the highly transmissible Delta variant has reduced hope for outright victory and a full return to pre-pandemic life. Scientists say country plans highlight the reality and awareness that Covid-19 will not go away as quickly as it first appeared, but will instead take its place amid respiratory conditions that regularly cause illness and death, like the flu.

It is not clear how long it will take to get there, scientists say. But vaccines mean the deadliest phase of the pandemic is almost certainly in the past and governments will no longer resort to strict national lockdowns to contain the virus.

“The epidemic is changing,” said Jimmy Whitworth, professor of international public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

The number of cases has fluctuated in Europe, as the Delta variant has spread and public health officials have taken steps to push it back. The seven-day average of new daily coronavirus cases in the European Union and UK was 95,500 on Sunday, or around 186 cases per million people, down 14% from a peak of over 110 000 in late July, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control and the UK government.

The average number of cases per million in the United States is about double that level, after a sharp increase this summer as the virus entered largely unvaccinated states.

Hospitalization rates in Europe are lower than in previous waves of the pandemic, highlighting the effect of vaccines. Hospital admissions in France were 65 per 1 million people in the week ending August 8, two-thirds lower than in March, when admission rates reached their last peak, according to the ECDC. In Germany and Italy, admission rates per 1 million people fell 90% in the same week from their most recent peaks. In the UK, admission rates were 80% lower.

New deaths from Covid-19 in Europe and the United States are only a fraction of the levels seen previously.

Europe has made progress in vaccinating its people after a difficult start. The EU has fully vaccinated 53% of its population, according to data compiled by the Our World in Data project at the University of Oxford, slightly ahead of the United States with 50%. The UK is at 60%. Spain has reached 63% coverage, Germany and Italy more than 55% and France is lagging behind at 50%.

Yet scientists say herd immunity, the point at which a population has achieved sufficient immunity through vaccination or infection to prevent the spread of the virus, is still a long way off, if it can be achieved at all. New variants may also appear that can bypass these defenses.

A more likely future, said Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia in England, is a balance similar to what we are experiencing with other coronaviruses, in which the virus “loses its sting” due to vaccines, but causes recurrent episodes of illness and death. Over time, officials hope businesses and economies can adjust to the new baseline.

Travel restrictions and isolation regimes for confirmed Covid-19 cases are rife in the region and are expected to persist for some time. Countries have stepped up their genetic surveillance to better track variants of the coronavirus. Booster shots for the elderly and vulnerable are either under discussion or actively planned, although the World Health Organization has advocated for prioritizing the poorest regions of the world. Many governments are expanding regular and widespread testing to detect cases and improving, rather than removing, contact tracing systems.

UK officials have taken a somewhat different approach, choosing to drop most restrictions and instead trust vaccines and public behavior to keep a lid on Covid-19. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has urged Britons to learn to live with the virus as they do with other respiratory illnesses.

The data suggests that the British public has remained cautious, despite the easing of restrictions, highlighting the potential role of behavior in limiting the spread of the virus. In the YouGov poll, 70% of Britons said at the end of July, after restrictions were eased in England, that they still wear masks in public places, a proportion that has not changed much since spring 2020. From many stores and transport operators still ask for this. clients wear masks, but application is patchy.

Data compiled by Alphabet Inc.’s Google unit shows UK visits to restaurants, shopping malls and entertainment venues such as cinemas in early August were around 3% below levels in August. before the pandemic. The use of public transport was lower by a third. Visits to workplaces were 42% lower.

Italy, which was hit hard at the start of the pandemic, is bracing for a protracted fight. It uses a color-coded system that uses several parameters to classify the status of the pandemic and the severity of the restrictions. Red regions have the most restrictions, followed by yellow, green, and white, where there are almost no restrictions except for a mask warrant in indoor public places. All regions are currently white, but Sicily and Sardinia, two popular tourist destinations, will likely turn yellow soon and more could follow as the Delta variant continues to spread.

“There is awareness among people here that the battle against Covid continues and will be long,” said Claudio Cancelli, mayor of Nembro, a town of 11,000 near the epicenter of the first wave. pandemic in Italy. Mr Cancelli said masks are still frequently used outdoors, although they are not mandatory, and people say they are ready to receive a third dose of the vaccine if authorities give the green light for booster shots .

“People don’t let their guard down because they know it’s not over and it will take a long time to get there,” he said.

Write to Jason Douglas at [email protected] and Eric Sylvers at [email protected]