When and how the pandemic could become endemic

TAMPA, Florida – Vaccines should help put the world back on track and push COVID-19 back into the background, but many people want to know exactly when the pandemic will end.

Some epidemiologists have said the COVID-19 pandemic could become endemic early next year, while others have said it will likely be longer as the rest of the world needs vaccines.

“So endemic is just when you have a disease that is at a typical level, a level that is expected in a population,” explained Dr. Cindy Prins, associate professor of epidemiology at the University. from Florida.

Currently, COVID-19 is still infecting a group of people in droves, so it is far from fading into the background. But pandemics have become endemic in the past.

“We’ve had flu pandemics, haven’t we? We’ve had the swine flu that a lot of people remember from 2009. And we still get that variant of the flu sometimes, and it’s now part of the flu shot. anyway, “Prins said. “So people are still infected, but we don’t see that kind of high case that we initially saw in 2009.”

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Scientists specializing in infectious diseases are studying virus models for COVID-19. USF Health’s Dr. Edwin Michael is a virus modeler and shared when COVID might be behind us.

“It’s going to start to decline and it will fade away like at the start of next year. Maybe in February of next year we’ll see the flip side,” said Michael. “In the worst case, it will become endemic like the flu. You know, we’ll just have to deal with it, but it’ll be in the background. Most people are protected, but that means we have to get reboosted, take the vaccines. “

Michael said that an endemic by February is only possible if more people receive the vaccine to counter the spread of the delta variant, follow public health guidelines, and a nastier viral mutation does not take hold. above.

“Then you have flare-ups, you know, but you don’t have a global pandemic because the rest of us are immune to these things,” Michael said.

Since new variants may prolong the pandemic, Prins said she believes it may take longer in February to bring COVID-19 to an endemic.

“Part of the problem right now is that even in the United States we still have a fairly large unvaccinated population. But then if you go outside of the United States and in particular to some of the more underdeveloped countries , they haven’t had access to vaccines. They have a large chunk of their population that is not vaccinated, so it’s a global effort, “said Prins.

Prins and Michael said they believe COVID-19 will stay but look more like the flu or measles and mumps where enough people get vaccinated to boost immunity.