[ad_1]
NASA has just updated its predictions on the possibility of the asteroid Bennu hitting Earth, even going so far as to specify the exact date on which an impact is most likely: September 24, 2182.
Spoiler alert: we’re probably fine.
The background: Our solar system contains over a million asteroids, and most are tiny and very unlikely to come close to Earth.
If a large asteroid were to hit Earth’s surface, however, the result could be devastating, so NASA created the Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) in 2016 to detect and monitor any potentially dangerous asteroids and create a plan to prevent impacts. , if possible.
Bennu should be 125,000 miles from Earth, about half the distance from the Moon.
Right now, OFSP is closely monitoring two particularly threatening space rocks, including Bennu.
The Bennu asteroid: NASA discovered the asteroid Bennu in 1999. It is currently nearly 200 million kilometers from us, but it is expected to be 125,000 miles by 2135, or about half of the size. distance between the Earth and the Moon.
“An object the size of Bennu… would pretty much wreck things along the coast.” “
Lindley johnson
Bennu is about a third of a mile (half a kilometer) wide, and if he were to impact Earth, it could cause serious destruction.
“[A] an object the size of half a mile will create a crater at least three miles in diameter, and it can reach up to 10 miles in diameter, “Lindley Johnson, director of OFSP, told The New York Times .
“But the area of devastation is going to be much, much larger than that, up to 100 times the size of the crater,” he continued. “So an object Bennu’s size impacting the east coast states would pretty much wreak havoc along the coast.” “
The OSIRIS-REx mission: To learn as much as possible about the asteroid Bennu, NASA launched the OSIRIS-REx space probe in 2016.
The craft spent two years studying Bennu closely, recording data from his orbit, and even landing on the asteroid to collect rock samples – a first for NASA.
These samples won’t be in NASA’s hands until 2023 (OSIRIS-REx is still making the return trip), but NASA has already used what it learned from the probe to update its predictions on the asteroid. Bennu.
“The OSIRIS-REx data gives us so much more precise information, we can test the limits of our models and calculate Bennu’s future trajectory with a very high degree of certainty until 2135,” said the study leader. Davide Farnocchia in a press release.
“We have never modeled the trajectory of an asteroid with this precision before,” he added.
What’s new: According to NASA, the probability of asteroid Bennu hitting Earth by 2300 is about 1 in 1,750. This is a slight change from its previous prediction (1 in 2,700 chance of impact by 2,200).
“I’m no more concerned about Bennu than before. “
Davide Farnocchia
NASA has also determined the precise date on which a collision with Bennu is most likely – September 24, 2182 – but even then the odds are only 1 in 2,700.
What is essential, according to Farnocchia?
“It’s not a significant change,” he told the NYT. “I’m no more concerned about Bennu than before. The probability of impact remains very low.
We would love to hear from you! If you have a comment on this article or have a tip for a future Freethink story, please email us at [email protected].
[ad_2]
Source link