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With coronavirus cases showing early signs of abating across much of the Bay Area and with companies moving forward with plans to bring workers back to the office, a big question remains: When will the latest round of restrictions be pandemics be lifted?
The answer is vague across the region, but Dr Susan Philip, head of health in San Francisco, said on Wednesday officials were evaluating ways to possibly relax certain rules, such as mask warrants for venues. business, and are encouraged by the “really high vaccination rates” in the city.
She stressed that nothing would happen soon, and said decisions on removing such restrictions would be in partnership with other Bay Area County health departments.
“The masking, along with the vaccination, is what will keep the rates in our community low,” said Philip, adding that it was already fundamental to do so. “I admit it’s heavy. But it’s not as burdensome as shutting down the economy again. These are all compromises. The masking is cheaper than some of the other steps we had to take. “
When 8 of the 9 Bay Area counties except Solano made masking mandatory last month in all indoor public places, regardless of immunization status, health workers told the public that ‘it was a “temporary” strategy in the face of the highly contagious delta variant. It aimed to stem the increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths to follow.
Five weeks later, with the variant proving to be a more robust foe than expected, “temporary” could mean the end of the year or beyond.
“It’s too early to set a date or identify a metric, where we say, ‘If we get to that level of cases, we’re going to make a change,’” said Philip. “The other thing I’m also thinking about is our residents who cannot be vaccinated. “
Mask warrants, like at the Bottle Rock Festival in Napa, where guest Lisa Beyersdoerfer sits in a hair bar, don’t seem to be going away anytime soon in the Bay Area.
Dana Jacobs / The Chronicle SpecialShe said a key factor to consider when relaxing restrictions such as masking is when children under 12 will be eligible for vaccination, especially with schools reopening for in-person instruction. fulltime. Santa Clara County health officials also raised the issue of having children immunized when asked on Wednesday to ease restrictions.
Philips has said it expects this not to happen until late 2021 or early 2022.
Since the state withdrew its tiered plan for the reopening on June 15, there have been no clear benchmarks for when the new and reinstated COVID protocols will be slashed. In the past, each county was assigned a level of risk, with its activity restrictions tied to its positivity rate, adjusted case rate, and a measure of health equity. It no longer exists.
Across the Bay Area, County Health Services on Wednesday offered an assortment of highlights on what could prompt the start of the cancellation of restrictions. Details were hard to find.
“I think the mask mandates will be with us for quite a while. I don’t see them going away in the next few weeks or months, ”said Stephen Shortell, former dean of UC Berkeley School of Public Health. “My prediction is the first of the year. I’d love to be wrong about that. But with this delta variant and stuff, I think the mask warrants are going to be with us for a little while yet. “
Aside from wearing a mask, some workplaces in California require workers to show proof that they have received their COVID-19 vaccines or regularly test for the virus. San Francisco and Berkley also require proof of vaccination for certain indoor activities, including restaurants, bars, and gyms.
With nearly all 58 counties classified with high or substantial levels of community transmission, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s county-by-county monitoring, policymakers are taking a more cautious – and flexible – approach to lifting the latest round of restrictions by due to the unpredictable nature of the delta.
“Health officials continue to monitor transmission and variants of COVID-19, and prepare for whatever COVID-19 has in store for us,” the California Department of Public Health said in a statement to The Chronicle on Wednesday. “We must continue our vaccination and prevention efforts in order to reduce the serious consequences. “
Experts agree that we are in a gray area where cases and hospitalizations are starting to drop, but the trends could easily be reversed if health officials withdraw safety measures too quickly.
“My feeling on where we are now is influenced by my feeling in June, which was pretty upbeat and thinking you could see all the way to the end zone and we were going in the right direction,” said the Dr Robert Wachter, Head of UCSF. department of medicine. “I feel like we’ve all been sort of propelled into a whole different reality by two things that surprised me. One was delta, and how much worse this variant could be. And the second is the politicization of vaccinations. We are in a much worse situation than I thought.
Decisions to revise the current rules will depend on a variety of factors, but mainly on vaccination rates, number of cases and hospital capacity, said Dr George Rutherford, infectious disease expert at UCSF.
“There’s no firm idea in mind to say, ‘We’re going to do it like this: Click,’ he said. ” I do not think that exists. But these are the big three that I would follow.
Vaccination warrants will likely remain in place beyond the removal of masking rules, Rutherford predicted.
Alameda and Marin counties say they will consider lifting the mask mandate once the county reaches official CDC “moderate” or “low” levels of community transmission.
Shortell, however, said it would be a mistake for counties to lift mask warrants solely based on transmission levels. He said that would only return counties to higher transmission levels a few weeks later.
“You better be consistent,” he said, adding that he didn’t think wearing masks was a problem for most people. “The masks are only part of my dress. I have the mask handy and that’s okay. It’s like putting on your shoes and so on.
When asked on Wednesday about any plans to ease restrictions in the event of a pandemic, Napa County officials Contra Costa and San Mateo said, without specific details, they were monitoring the data to assess their next steps.
Lee Riley, an infectious disease expert at UC Berkeley’s School of Public Health, has proposed one possible measure: counties can drop mask mandates “if we can get over 90% of California’s population vaccinated,” did he declare. “I think we’ll probably have to get there in early 2022 before any sort of mask mandate can be relaxed. At least during the winter.
Columnist Erin Allday contributed to this report.
Aidin Vaziri is a writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected]
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